The plan to empty in six days its islands closest to Taiwan

Two news in recent months have ended up becoming a revealing announcement. The first occurred at the end of January, when many of the Sakishima Islands (the closest to Taiwan) began a series of a series of any weekend Evacuation drills. Shortly after, Japan made a historical decision: deploy long -range missiles In some of these islands. How much? Enough to get to China. Now, in the face of doubts to a war conflict, it has officialized a plan.

Evacuate mission. Japan has presented for the first time A formal plan To evacuate more than 100,000 civilians, including residents and tourists, of the remote islands near Taiwan, specifically Sakishima archipelagolocated at the southwest end of the country. The plan occurs in a context of growing military tension In the Taiwan Strait, where the threat of a possible Chinese invasion has generated concern in Tokyo and the international community.

To be exact, the measure includes the evacuation of Approximately 110,000 residents and 10,000 tourists through the mobilization of ships and airplanes to eight prefectures of Western and Southwestern Japan, with the goal of completing the operation in a Maximum period of six days. The evacuees would be initially transferred to the island of Kyushu and from there distributed to different destinations that are already being prepared with temporary accommodations.

Military and drill preparations. As we said at the beginning, the drills have been carried out In the last datesbut without great explanations about the main reason. Now, and as part of the reinforcement of security and logistics preparation, the Japanese government has announced that as of April next year it will carry out Evacuation exercises In the Sakishima Islands, which are part of the Okinawa Prefecture, a key region that houses almost 50,000 American soldiers and that has historically been considered strategic for the defense of Japan.

In addition, and as we count a few days ago, the installation of units of Surface-Aire missiles on the island of Yonagunilocated only 100 km from Taiwan, and the construction of provisional underground shelters, equipped with food and supplies for at least two weeks. These measures seek to improve defense capacity in the event of an eventual attack and ensure the protection of local populations.

Increasing tensions. Although the evacuation plan does not explicitly mention Taiwan, it is evident that the growing possibility that the self -governor island (claimed by China as part of its territory) becomes the epicenter of a military conflict has been the trigger for the initiative.

China ha Increased military pressure About Taiwan in recent years and has not ruled out the use of force to Force “reunification”. The precedent of the Russian invasion to Ukraine and the hardening positions Geopolitics, especially after Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States, has increased the fear that the Taiwan Strait becomes the next great focus of conflict in Asia.

United States and the weakness of the alliance. Possibly, the key reason that has led to Japan to missile implantation long range and to formalize an evacuation plan is uncertainty with the United States. In fact, the evacuation plan has been widely Extended in Taiwanwhere it has generated worrying interpretations about the reliability of regional alliances. Many Taiwanese and local analysts see the Japanese initiative as a sign that Tokyo does not trust In which Washington, under the policy of “America First” of Trump, maintains your commitment to defense against a conflict in the Strait.

To this we must add the Recent statements from Trumpquestioning the reciprocity of the United States-Japan Security Treaty and highlighting that Tokyo It is not obliged To defend the United States in case of aggression, which has accentuated these concerns. A culture broth that has led to the perception that Japan is preparing “discreetly” to ensure its withdrawal of vulnerable areas without depending on US intervention.

Reinforce regional defense. As we also said, Japan, in addition to the evacuation and militarization of the Sakishima Islands, has intensified its defensive strategy through the planned deployment of long -range missiles In Kyushu, expanding its ability to respond to threats from the Asian continent.

Simultaneously, the Senkaku Islandsdisputed with China and administered by Japan, continue to be a friction point that could further complicate security in the region. The Japanese government has made it clear that all these measures are part of a comprehensive strategy Based on the forecast of “imminent armed attacks”, as Yoshimasa Hayashi, chief secretary of the Cabinet said.

Vulnerability in the islands. The population of the most exposed islands shares government concern. In this regard, The Guardian told That Gen Nakatani, Minister of Defense, recently recognized the “strong sense of crisis” that is perceived among the inhabitants of these islands, who have historically witnessed the territorial disputes and military maneuvers in the region.

The proximity of Yonaguni and other islands of the archipelago to the Strait of Taiwan, as well as the growing presence of China in the surrounding waters, make the feeling of threat constant. Therefore, the combination of planned evacuationstrengthening shelters, Armament deployment And cooperation with Washington, despite tensions, has a fairly clear objective: reinforce Japan’s resilience to a possible military escalation.

Image | US Pacific Fleet

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