We’re sweating, let’s face it. And it’s Monday and you don’t even want to look at the car thermometer. Above all, because AEMET has already been warning that the worst is coming on Tuesday: even 44 degrees in the interior valleys, hellish nights in the southeast and anomalies of more than 20 degrees in the north.
And yet, at the bottom of weather prediction models (where hours almost become weeks) cold scenarios begin to appear. “Anomalies of -12 degrees to start July“, you hear them say.
And yes, the map is correct, the data says that. The problem is everything else.
Although first of all, good news: thermal relief is close. “It will arrive in the middle of the week”a breath of fresher air” from the northwest. This will help cool the heat that “has settled in much of the Iberian Peninsula during the end of spring and the beginning of summer.”
It doesn’t mean, of course, that it won’t be hot. Even if (as some maps point out) temperatures stay a couple of degrees below normal, it will still be hot. However, the decline will be clear. For reference, Bilbao will go from 42 to 29 in 48 hours.
And now let’s continue with July. Indeed, some outputs of AIFS v2the European Center’s artificial intelligence model, are showing very curious anomalies for the first days of July. There are, in fact, three traps: the first is the deadline. Ten days, whether we like it or not, is still a long time to close a forecast.
The second is that we are talking about anomalies: -12 degrees of anomaly is a lot, yes. But above July levels it is not ‘as much’ as it might seem. At most we will have spring weather left. Something that will be well received, but that can become a problem if we do not manage expectations correctly.
The last trap is to understand that ‘a week’ is not ‘a weather’. It is true that we have already had two very rare high temperature events (which, it seems, are caused by variations in the jet stream). It is also true that the idea of a cold first of July conveys a certain idea of a thermal ‘roller coaster’. But neither an early heat wave nor a thermal bump changes the reality: that summer is getting harsher.
That is to say, we run the risk of the idea that “the weather is crazy” take hold when it is a lie. We do not live in a world where cold and heat are distributed as if the days were distributed in a lottery: we live in a world that is warming. Which heats up much hotter and faster than we would like.
What can we expect? In the short term, a little more heat and a little thermal relief. There will be some showers in the west, first; and in the east, later. Then, if everything ends up being confirmed, a few days that are a little cooler (and wetter than normal). In the medium term, everything indicates that more of the same: hot, very hot.
Image | BenBaso
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