Half of Spain is on alert due to snow and yet AEMET has not issued a single red notice: what is happening here?

“Historical Polar Beast“, “New Philomena“, “the polar storm that threatens Spain“: Much has been written about the intrusion of cold air that is causing drops in temperatures, snowfall and trouble throughout the north of the country. And not always without reason.

In fact, the Junta de Castilla y León has declared the alert for snowfall in the provinces of Burgos, León, Palencia and Soria. And yet, AEMET has not issued a red weather warning. What is happening here?

QTo start: everything is working normally. And we must not forget that AEMET and Civil Protection do not do the same work. The State Meteorological Agency is limited to issuing weather warnings that are based on physical and objective thresholds. Civil Protection, on the other hand, declares the alert based on the expected impact (on the population and/or infrastructure).

In this sense, they are not things that can be linked directly.

And what is happening these days is a textbook example. AEMET has not activated red warnings, simply because snowfall exceeding the highest thresholds is not expected. Yes, the snow level had dropped a lot… but in reality, no one expected a lot of snow to fall.

This does not mean, as is evident, that it is not an important episode; Only it is not an extreme episode in purely meteorological terms.

In social terms, it is different. Because as Víctor Gonzalez explained There are a series of factors that make this relatively small winter storm something to take into account.

• To begin with, it is the first episode of snowfall at low levels of the season. As with heat waves in summer, the first ‘episodes’ are always more dangerous because they ‘catch’ the population unprepared.
• Especially when (as is happening now) that episode comes earlier than usual, when winter hasn’t even started yet.
• In addition, it coincides with very busy days (because we are talking about a very busy weekend).

An important lesson: When we talk about meteorology, it doesn’t just matter how much snow falls, how hot it is going to be, or how much water a storm will dump. What really matters is when, where and on whom it falls. As Víctor González said“If this same episode occurred on a Tuesday in February, perhaps the alert would not have been declared.”

Image | ECMWF | Alev Takil

In Xataka | AEMET is clear about what we can expect from the polar storm that threatens Spain: the question is whether we are prepared