It we count last week. In the Middle East, crises rarely erupt overnight. First pieces move away from the spotlight, discreet commitments are signed and deployments multiply that seem routine. Only later, when everything falls into place, do you understand that the board had been preparing for something bigger for weeks.
Now we know that Washington has not been the only one that has prepared.
Agreement sealed in the shadows. counted this morning in an exclusive the financial times that Iran and Russia signed a secret contract of almost 500 million euros for delivery of 500 lVerba portable spears and 2,500 9M336 missiles. It would be Tehran’s most significant move to rebuild air defenses devastated after the 12 day war against Israel.
The Iranian request came just days after its integrated network was seriously degraded by Israeli and American attacks, which allowed enemy aircraft to operate with superiority over large areas of the country. The agreement provides deliveries until 2029although the media explained that there are indications of early shipments, and it is complemented with night vision devices and other equipment that points to a phased but urgent reconstruction.
What are Verba and why do they matter. The Verba system is a portable guided missile infrared designed to shoot down drones, cruise missiles and low-level aircraft such as helicopters, operated by small mobile teams that can deploy dispersed defenses without depending on fixed radars vulnerable to bombing.
These are not heavy strategic systems like lthe S-300 or S-400but rather a flexible tactical layer that complicates helicopter operations and low-level flights. Its adoption is rapid, requires less integration and allows Iran to reinforce critical points at a relatively acceptable cost for Moscow, which can supply them without weakening substantially its own defense against Ukraine.
Verba missile carrier
A military alliance despite sanctions. Apparently the contract was negotiated between Rosoboronexport and the Iranian Ministry of Defense, with intermediaries already sanctioned by Washington, in a context of growing cooperation that includes Iranian drones employed by Russia in Ukraine and a bilateral treaty signed in 2025.
Moscow thus demonstrates that it has no intention of abiding by Western sanctions or the arms embargo reactivated by European powers, while Tehran tries rebuild the relationship following the perception that Russia did not come to their aid during the latest conflict with Israel. The flow of cargo flights and the reception of attack helicopters Mi-28 reinforce the image of a active and sustained military association.
The largest deployment since 2003. It we count last week. The agreement emerges in parallel to a massive accumulation of American air and naval power in the Middle East, with dozens of F-35, F-15 and A-10 fighters deployed at bases such as Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan and Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, in addition to two aircraft carrier groups led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford.
In total, about 40,000 troops and a fleet comparable to the one before the 2003 invasion of Iraq support Donald Trump’s threats to impose a nuclear ultimatum on Tehran. Iran, for its part, warns that it would respond by attacking US bases in the region if hit.
A reinforcement that changes the risk calculation. The new systems They will not turn Iran into a conventional rival comparable to the United States or Israel, of course, nor will they prevent sustained air campaigns if these are executed with technological superiority.
However, they can raise cost and risk of specific operations, especially helicopter raids or low-altitude attacks, and prolong a possible conflict by making initial phases of aerial suppression difficult. In an environment where each shootdown would have a disproportionate political and strategic impact, the mere presence of hundreds of mobile launchers introduces a tactical deterrence variable.
A preparation race. What does seem quite clear is that the combination Iranian rearmament and American deployment draws a scenario of maximum tension in which diplomacy and force advance in parallel. Tehran seeks to buy time, rebuild defensive layers and negotiate from a less vulnerable position. Washington tries to pressure with a demonstration of power without recent precedents in the region.
What happens in the coming weeks will not only determine whether there is an attack or an agreement, but also whether the Russian-Iranian alliance is consolidated as a military axis capable of openly challenging the sanctions regime and reconfiguring the strategic balance of the Middle East.
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