US faces the dilemma impossible to or sell hardware to China … or not sell it to them and develop it themselves

The United States is at a historic crossroads in regards to sell GPU to China. And not only does it have to do with the economical and with which Nvidia swells his income statement, which calculates that it will be 15,000 million less this year If you follow the prohibition of selling your avant -garde chips. It has to do with the future of the artificial intelligence (AI) and technology.

The context. Nvidia has achieved something that seemed impossible: that Trump’s government let him market again His H20 chips in China. Although the GPUS were Designed to skip restrictions that fell on the H100 and H200, the United States added New restrictions in April. They paralyzed exports to China even though there were already agreements with Customers such as Tencent or Alibaba.

With the relaxation of measures, Nvidia and its accounts breathe relieved, but the United States still has to make difficult long -term decisions.

The United States plays it … do whatever. The United States can gain time compared to China limiting the sale of avant -garde chips, as it has been doing. However, this implies that their companies win less money, greatly reducing their global turnover. And is that the Chinese market, in 2024 and with restrictions, It was 13% of Nvidia sales.

In addition, the world uses NVIDIA GPUs almost as the only option has advantages: that the North American country controls the entire Stack technological used to train IAS and to execute the expensive inference, fields that Google also dominates with its tpu.

China at the height. Huang himself, in a recent interview with Bloomberg, said that the power of the technology developed by Huawei is “Probably comparable to an H200“From Nvidia, superior to H20. And they want to market it outside their borders, an intention that has motivated a offensive by the US to prevent China from exporting its chips to other countries.

If exports do not find clippers, Chinese laboratories can continue focused on their plan: give away the thinking of the next decades and create global dependence. If you cut it, it already has good examples of what happens: The shot of the sanctions has come out of the cylinder head, A gift that cannot be allowed again.

A fearsome potential called Huawei. The possibility that Huawei becomes a huge opponent for Nvidia raises a huge loss of income for the US company. Just against that are Fighting already from the American government: Cut Huawei’s wings into the global market before it is competitive.

Huawei has already had time to develop his chip Ascend 910d and 920with SMIC as a great ally. He Historical Mate 70 processor He showed that Huawei usually gets what he pursues. And according to Huang, if China wants military autonomy with AI, You will have to develop your own technologybecause for this task, they cannot trust American developments.

A Deepseek moment in hardware … inevitable? All this leaves us the unknown if in hardware we can see A moment Deepseek. China would not have to potentiate Nvidia’s proposal, as Deepseek R1 did not exceed O1 in reasoning, but yes, Through ingenuity and new paradigmsdifferentiate in aspects such as price or efficiency.

Arrive on time. The big question that can be asked about NVIDIA in China is whether the approval to sell again the H20 arrives on time. According to Reutersthe beginning of the massive distribution of Huawei 910C was set for May. According to the news agency, the Chinese giant graphics card achieves performance comparable to that of NVIDIA H100 thanks to combining two 910b processors with advanced techniques.

More software is needed. Huawei can have the hardware, but unlike what he has achieved in inference, where in theory Yes are at Nvidiayou have to prove to be able to compete in training software. This is something that could do by the hand of Moore Threads. If the United States wants to maintain its technology as the global standard for Ia, it must hurry. As the analyst Paul Triolo told Reuters, the restrictions at April H20 were going to mean that the Huawei Ascend 910C became “the hardware chosen by the developers of AI models (Chinese) and to display the inference capacity.”

Image | Nvidia | Dominic Kurniawan

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