Europe had killed its hopes to find oil in the continent. Poland has just changed that

“The oil market is misleading.” This is warned by analyst Javier Blas In a recent article for Bloombergwhere he points out that under the apparent price stability a deep transformation that has altered the seasonality of global consumption is hidden. It is no longer winter, but summer, the moment of greatest demand for crude. And in this new scenario, Poland could be facing a turning point: the finding of the largest conventional hydrocarbon deposit in its history, in the waters of the Baltic Sea.

A submerged treasure. The Canadian Central European Petroleum (CEP) company, backed by Norway investment, has announced the discovery of the Wolin Este site (We1), located just six kilometers from the coast.

TVN24 He has reported That the site includes 22 million tons of oil and 5,000 million cubic meters of natural gas, with a total estimate in the concession of 33 million tons of crude oil and 27,000 million cubic meters of gas. According to calculations cited by BBCthis figure would represent around 200 million barrels of oil, which makes it a strategic finding both for its volume and its location.

It doesn’t change everything, but it changes a lot. Poland consumes about 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day, but its local production does not exceed 18,000. The rest matters. In that context, a discovery that can triple national production represents more than good news: it is a potential turning point. Wolin’s exploitation could multiply national production by three, according to CEP Executive Director, Rolf Skaar, In statements collected by TVN24.

In addition, the crude found has an API index of 33.4, which classifies it as light, that is, easier and more economical to refine. This finding comes when Poland has already taken Russia’s energy distance after the invasion of Ukraine: it has connected to Norwegian gas through Baltic Pipe, has reinforced its import capacity of LNG since świnoujście and has diversified its access to crude oil through Naftaport, in Gdansk. But still depending, to a large extent, abroad. Wolin can start changing that.

From the finding to extraction. The concession of Wolin, of 593 km², was perforated by the specialized platform Noble Resolve, reaching a vertical depth of 2,715 meters. The We1 well was left in future conditions and geological analysis confirmed a 62 -meter hydrocarbon column in the main dolomite formation (CA₂), As detailed Gospodarka Morska.

CEP has already invested about 200 million Zlotys in seismic studies and drilling, and now looks for Polish and international partners to undertake the exploitation phase. Conversations with companies such as PGNIG (now integrated into Orlen) have been restarted after the fusion of state energy.

International Resonance. Wolin’s discovery occurs while the international crude oil market navigates uncertain waters. According to ReutersBrent’s futures closed Monday under 70 dollars. The reason: the new sanctions of the European Union against Russia, which now prohibit the importation of refined products in third countries with Russian crude, such as India. Although analysts believe that the supply will find new paths, concerns arise about the impact on the diesel market, more difficult to replace. That tension adds an important nuance: the new deposits in European soil are not only an energy advantage, but also a geostrategic asset.

And now what? The new site will not solve the Polish energy dependence on its own, but it could mark a turning point. As the energy expert points out Wojciech Jakóbik in BBC, the finding “will strengthen energy security, provided that estimates are confirmed in practice and develop the necessary infrastructure.”

Today, it is not clear if a new pipeline will be built or existing infrastructure will be used. Meanwhile, CEP holds conversations with multiple actors and, as Jakóbik recalls, the project requires companies with “greater risk tolerance and investment capacity”.

An energy window in convulsive times. The discovery in the Baltic Sea comes just when the global market enters its moment of maximum seasonal demand, in the middle of the northern hemisphere. As Bloomberg explained, the seasonality of crude has changed: it is no longer winter, but the summer months that mark consumption roofs. The big question is whether Poland can take this opportunity without repeating the mistakes of the past. The window is open. But it will not be forever.

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