China is at the gates of overcoming Taiwan in number of chips produced. Sounds very intimidating but it is not so much

China will surpass Taiwan in 2030 in the production capacity of semiconductors. This is indicated by a recent Yole Group report that highlights how the efforts of the Asian giant will soon be rewarded. At least in the quantity section. Not so much in quality.

Chinese-Taiwan tension. China has one especially delicate relationship With Taiwan, and that shows in the chips race. TSMC is the jewel of the Taiwanese crownabsolute protagonist in the semiconductor sector. No one produces more and better chips, and the restrictions that affect the People’s Republic of China (China) do not affect the Chinese Republic (Taiwan). China, however, has been investing in its own continental companies and manufacturing plants (“Foundries”), and that is giving results.

The data. According to this study, the production capacity of semiconductors in continental China plants will represent 30% of the world total quota before the decade ends, when in 2024 it was 21%. Taiwan currently is the market leader with a 23%share, while China is already second with the aforementioned 21%. Behind are South Korea (19%), Japan (13%) and the US (10%).

Big Fund. Beijing put years ago its plan to be a “complete nation” in the field of semicoductors. This is: not depending on anyone. To do this, he created the so -called Investment Fund of the Integrated Circuit Industry of China, popularly known as the “great background” or “Big Fund”. The economic support of this body has allowed SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor – two of the main manufacturers of Chinese semiconductors – to flourish especially.

Chinese manufacturers evolve. The domestic plants of continental China have been growing in relevance, and They have invested significantly in expansions that allow working in chips for sectors such as automotive or generative artificial intelligence. All this makes the panorama for semiconductors in China improve, but only in a section.

Good for quantity, bad for “quality”. The problem of these semiconductor plants is that they use less advanced photolithographs ranging from 8 to 45 Nm. Although these types of chips remain perfectly valid for industries such as automotive, IoT devices or appliances, they are not for advanced AI chips, which are in which TSMC dominates.

The great Chinese promise, in trouble. SMIC, the main Chinese semiconductor manufacturer, has been trying to make the leap to a 5 Nm photolithographic node, but this technology He is choking. In fact, his 7 nm node already had Notable problems In performance per wafer, and failing to take that step is for the moment a negative note in that remarkable advance in production rhythms.

And while his rivals for all. TSMC and Samsung have already overcome that photolithographic node and are going at full speed to start the mass production of 2 nm chips. It is expected that TSMC achieves it this year and that Samsung does it in 2026. Taiwan in fact is Testing your lithography A14 (1.4 Nm), which will enter large -scale production in 2028.

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