only Chinese memory manufacturers can bring sanity back to the hardware market

The price of memory has become a bad joke. DDR4 and DDR5 modules are in short supply, PC manufacturers are packaging computers without enough memory and even Apple has risen 20% the price of your MacBooks and iPads blaming this component directly. The artificial intelligence (AI) is to blame, and there is no sign of the situation improving anytime soon.

Samsung, SK hynix and Micron, which control around 90% of global DRAM production, have refocused much of its manufacturing lines towards high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which powers AI accelerators from Nvidia and other companies. The result is that the consumer market, the one that supplies our computers, mobile phones and consoles, has been practically abandoned to its fate.

And in that void there are only two names capable of providing some oxygen: CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) and YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies Co.). These two Chinese manufacturers have been secondary players for years and, suddenly, they have emerged as the only variable capable of stabilizing skyrocketing prices.

Two manufacturers, one opportunity

CXMT has made a rise that seemed unthinkable just two years ago. This company has increased its net profit more than 1,688% in a single quarter, has signed a contract with Tencent valued at about 20 billion yuan (about $2.75 billion) to supply DRAM for servers, and already holds a global share of 7.67% according to Omdiamaking it the fourth largest manufacturer on the planet and the first in China.

While CXMT fights its battle in the DRAM market, YMTC does the same in the field of NAND Flash chips. This last company has gone from a share of 8% to 13% in just one year, and is preparing a new plant whose mass production will start during the second half of 2026which will place it as the third largest NAND manufacturer in the world only behind Samsung and Kioxia. In addition, YMTC has decided to dedicate 50% of the capacity of its third plant in the city, different from the previous one, to the manufacturing of DRAM, marking an unprecedented foray into the field of its compatriot CXMT.

However, it is in our best interest to moderate our enthusiasm. As we could see at Computex, CXMT prices They are already beginning to look dangerously similar to those of Samsung, SK hynix or Micron, and a good part of their production is still destined for the Chinese domestic market. It is important that we also moderate our expectations: the avalanche of capacity of these two manufacturers will not reach the global market until 2027, according to the industry’s own estimates.

And there is another front that does not depend on the factories. CXMT is on the Pentagon’s 1260H list for its alleged ties to the People’s Liberation Army, something that has forced Apple to put pressure on the Trump Administration to be able to buy chips from him without retaliation. As can be expected, any movement in Washington can stop this escape route in its tracks just when we need it most.

China is not going to solve this crisis overnight, but it is, today, the only piece on the board that is moving in the right direction. Whether it arrives on time or not will depend on both its factories and the geopolitics that surround them.

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