Japan has taken a look at the data after the disappearance of thousands of Chinese tourists and it has been said that it is not so bad

In the recent tourist chronicle of Japan there is a date marked in red. November 7, 2025. That day the prime minister Sanae Takaichi opened the box of thunder announce that Tokyo would not hesitate to deploy its troops in case China invaded Taiwan. The statement fell like a bucket of cold water on Beijing, which further made clear its discomfort at the diplomatic level, asked its citizens to avoid traveling to the country of the rising sun.

Taking into account the enormous weight of Chinese visitors in Japanese hotels, that it sounded like a catastrophea punch in the gut for its thriving tourism industry.

Well not so much. The latest data of the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) show that this is not the case. It is true that the country receives fewer (much fewer) Chinese visitors than a year ago, but the gap they have left in the hotels has not taken long to be filled by clients from other nations, especially from Asia.

A percentage: 6.4%. February has been a good month for the Japanese tourism industry. At least as far as the arrival of travelers is concerned. He last balance from JNTO shows that throughout the month the flow of visitors grew by 6.4% compared to the same period in 2025. From 3.26 million it went to 3.47. The accumulated of the first two months of 2026 is also positive. Japanese tourism now totals around 7.1 million visitors, 0.3% more than last year.

Said like that it doesn’t seem like a big deal. The weakness of the yen and its enormous popularity in networks, added to the recovery of the international tourism market after the pandemic stop, have turned Japan into everything a tourist phenomenon. One on a roll and accustomed to record numbers. In 2025, without going any further, the country will receive 42.7 million of foreign visitors, a historical mark that places the nation above 40 million for the first time in its history. So… Why is it news that it rose 6.4% in February? Why does that percentage matter?

The answer: China. What is surprising is not that Japan continues to receive more tourists. The surprising thing is that it does so despite how much the Chinese market, one of its pillars, has become very complicated. We mentioned it before. Takaichi’s statements in November in which he implied that Japan would not sit idly by if Beijing forced its way into Taiwan caused an earthquake that jumped from diplomacy to the economy and from this directly to tourism.

As part of their response to punish Takaichi, in mid-November the Chinese authorities they advised its citizens not to travel to Japan. They were even canceled dozens of flights and they refunded plane tickets.

From politics to hotels. It didn’t take long for the boycott to be noticed in Japanese hotels. If the flow of Chinese tourists grew at 22.8% in October 2025, the following month (after Takaichi’s speech) that percentage had deflated to 3%. In December it went directly into the red, with a drop in 45.3% which was expanded to -60.7% in January. In February (latest JNTO data available) the balance again marked another puncture of the 45.2%confirming the trend.

The percentage is better understood when talking about people: between January and February Japan received 921,700 fewer Chinese than in the same period in 2025.

And the alarms went off. The problem is not only the drop in visitors, which is already alarming in itself. If the Japanese sector began to worry, it is because China represents a strategic market. And doubly so. To begin with, it is because of its weight. Along with South Korea, the Asian giant is the main fishing ground for visitors to Japan. In 2025 it added 9.1 million tourists21% of the total. Only South Korea mobilized more. And the data only reflects mainland China. Travelers from Hong Kong (another big market) go separately.

The other reason why the Asian giant is so important for Japanese businesses is the profile of its tourists. Not only do many travelers leave China, those who pack their bags to spend their vacations in other countries also do so with full wallets. JNTO itself calculate that last year Chinese tourists spent about 25% more than other travelers during their stays in Japan, something that is especially noticeable in shopping centers.

After Takaichi’s words about Taiwan (and the diplomatic storm between Tokyo and Beijing) there were businesses in the sector that they recalculated their forecasts billing, assuming double-digit drops in its earnings estimate.

In the absence of Chinese… Other markets are good, which is what the JNTO statistics reflect. Despite the initial fear that Beijing’s boycott would hit Japanese tourism, slowing its unstoppable growth streak, Japan has managed to rebalance the sector. After experiencing a overall flow drop of visitors of 4.9% in January, last month that percentage was corrected and the industry grew again. In total in February they visited Japan about 3.5 million of tourists.

How is it possible? This increase actually has little mystery. The JNTO tables show that the 45.2% drop in the influx of Chinese tourists has been offset by an increase in visitors from other nations. The flow of South Koreans shot up, for example, by 28.2%, that of visitors from Hong Kong by 19.6%, that of Singaporeans by 21.4% and Indian tourists by 22.7%.

Ironically (or not) one of the markets that has grown the most is Taiwan. Throughout February, 693,600 tourists from the Asian island visited Japan, 36.7% more than in 2025. This is relevant data because Taiwan is one of the main markets for Japanese tourism. The flow from the US, Russia and Europe has also increased, including Spain, which contributed 10,200 travelers.

Lights and shadows. The JNTO balance demonstrates the resilience of Japanese tourism and questions its dependence on China. However, that does not mean that the sector can breathe easy. Bloomberg emphasize that the Asian giant is not only important on a quantitative level, due to its number of tourists, it is also important from a qualitative point of view, because of what these travelers spend when they go on vacation. In fact, Japan’s tourism surplus (the difference between foreigners’ spending in Japan and Japanese spending abroad) has been weakened. In January it experienced a year-on-year decline of 10.4%.

There are analysts who also warn that it is “unlikely” that Tokyo manages to recover the flow of Chinese customers in the short term. In fact the demand is pivoting from Japan to other destinations, such as South Korea and Thailand.

Are there more factors? Yes. And important. A significant part of the tourism that comes to Asia also comes from Europe, so it is not unreasonable that it would be penalized by the shockwaves of the war in Iran. Although it is still too early to know what will happen in the medium term, the conflict has affected to the airspace of the Middle East and airports such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai or Doha, hubs that channel part of the interconnections used by Europeans who want to fly to Asia.

In the background there is another major question: Whether Japanese tourism is resilient enough to withstand the Chinese boycott, is it good or bad news? Does it benefit or harm the country? They are not whimsical questions. If we ask the tourism industry, the 6.4% growth is surely good news, but the truth is that part of Japan has been expressing symptoms of tiredness before the tourismespecially in the most crowded areas, where apply measures for keep away foreigners.

Image | Matt Cramblett (Unsplash)

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