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Now that there is a certain tense calm in the Middle East, there are many analysts who have turned the magnopolitical framework. In June we already commented that, in a turn of the most perverse events, the United States attack Iran intended to contain a nuclear proliferation could be the catalyst of another even more dangerous: North Korea.
There was a second stage to draw: that of China and Taiwan.
Start over. The analysts told of the New York Times That the American attack against Iranian nuclear facilities has added a new layer of complexity to the already tense geopolitical equation between the United States, China and Taiwan. What began as a diplomatic strategy became a sudden offensive that now serves as Element of study For Chinese leaders, who seek to anticipate how Trump would respond to an eventual crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
His Erratic behavior And his willingness to resort to the use of force, even having previously rejected it, generate confusion in Beijing. China, they agree, observe this turn as a sign that Trump, far from representing a predictable position, could apply a logic of force equally in Asia if it perceives that their interests are at stake.
Iran’s mirror. In the same way What North Koreahe Attack on Iran has been able to force Chinese strategists to Check your models of contingency with respect to Taiwan. Despite the obvious differences between the two scenarios, the essential lesson It is shared: Trump is willing to unleash military operations if he considers it appropriate, even against adversaries with limited response capacity such as Iran.
Beijing, on the other hand, has a considerably superior military power and is known closer to the theater of operations than any American force. Even so, the possibility of a sudden escalation forces the Chinese to prepare For a Scenario fanfrom a diplomatic crisis to a direct confrontation that escapes their hands. Uncertainty about Trump’s red line is precisely what worries them.
Taiwan and ambiguity. A constant in American politics towards Taiwan has been the calculated ambiguity: dissuad China from that invasion that sounds by 2027 (coinciding with The EPL centenary), without explicitly guaranteeing a military intervention. Trump has brought that ambiguity to an extreme level. At times ha praised Xi Jinping And he has given relaxes of distensionwhile in others he has hardened his rhetoric and has intensified The supply of weapons to Taipéi.
For Beijing, this duality is disconcerting but also dangerous, because it cannot be certain to its behavior. In this context, Chinese analysts They have intensified His scrutiny, maintaining discrete meetings with American interlocutors in search of clues about the true limits of the former president. The impression they transmit is of nervous caution: they fear that the Trump’s unpredictability can trigger an unwanted crisis.
Cross pressures. The tension not only emanates from Beijing. Remembered in another report the Time Magazine that within the United States and Taiwan there is fear that Trump himself, in his eagerness, ends giving something to China In a future summit with XI, perhaps in the form of an ambiguous statement or a significant omission about the defense of the island. Washington, as we said, maintains armament supply (And more) and exhortes Taipéi to increase his military spending, but it is the president who finally decides.
That centralization of power and its erratic character They worry both in the Pentagon and in the Taiwanese presidential palace. We have Cash: The recent ones Chinese maneuversincluding deployment of aircraft carriers Beyond the first island chain, they are seen as stress tests: Silent drills to measure the allied reaction capacity and the degree of real commitment of Washington.
Taiwan between lines and symbols. While Beijin accuses President Taiwanesa Lai Ching-Te de Separatismo, the island administration insists that it is the maneuvers and Chinese threats that They tension the rope. In turn, within Taiwan, there are those who interpret Trump’s attack to Iran as An indirect warning To the great powers, a coded message towards Moscow and Beijing: if a line is crossed, the answer could be immediate.
But the comparison between Iran and China is dangerous. He Missile Arsenal from Beijing (which includes about 3,500 missiles Conventional, nuclear ballistic submarines and a rapid assembly) would make a lightning offensive like the one launched in the Middle East. China knows it, and that is why Multiply your deploymentsair incursions and Naval exercisesconsolidating a constant pressure on the island, designed to wear it psychologically and strategically.
China between two fronts. Plus: while facing these uncertainties in the east, Beijing must deal with a growing perception of threat in the West. The Recent statements From the secretary general of NATO, Mark Rutte, alerting about Chinese military expansion and his possible coordination with Russia in case of crisis in Taiwan, reinforce the western narrative of China As a systemic challenge. Beijing, meanwhile, denounces that NATO seeks to justify its expansion to Asia using China As a pretext.
A theater of shadows. In summary, Trump has shown that he can change course Without prior noticeand that feature, far from reassuring, introduces a dangerous volatility element. Meanwhile, China explores if you can find a loop to weaken American support to Taipéi, even Without resorting to force.
And in parallel, the military apparatus of the United States and its allies fears that any calculation error, any word out of place at a summit, can trigger a chain reaction. The military action In Iran it is not just a specific act: it is a declaration of ambiguous intentions, one that has put all the actors of the Indo-Pacific board alert.
In Xataka | That China performs 3,000 military air maneuvers over a year is not striking. To do it about Taiwan, yes
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