Airbus is about to close a new massive order in China, according to SCMP. The moment cannot be worse for Boeing

Airbus prepares to reinforce its presence in one of the most strategic markets on the planet: China. South China Morning Post says that the European manufacturer is at the gates of signing a new agreement with the Chinese authorities that would include Between 100 and 200 new airplanes. The firm could arrive this month, but what really attracts attention is not the magnitude of the order, but the moment in which it occurs.

The operation would coincide with the summit between the European and China Union on July 24 and 25, As Politico has advanced. A high -level diplomatic encounter that seeks to reduce commercial tensions, redefine relationships between Brussels and Beijing, and manage an increasingly tense climate in their links with Washington. That Airbus manages to close a contract of this size just in that context is something that does not go unnoticed.

A new order in Chinese heavens?

China has not closed great agreements with Boeing for years. The last relevant request dates back to 2017and since then the American manufacturer has been losing ground in one of the most dynamic markets in commercial aviation. The reason is not only commercial: the cooling of relations between Washington and Beijing, The tariff war And regulatory doubts seem to be tilting the balance to the European side. As the Hongkonese medium points out, Airbus has gained weight as the main supplier.

Time also plays in favor of Airbus. Many Chinese airlines are dealing with aged fleets, mostly composed of Boeing aircraft acquired more than a decade ago. In cases such as Shandong Airlines or China United Airlines, the bulk of the devices exceeds ten years of service. As the airplanes accumulate flight hours, in general, their maintenance becomes more expensive, their operational efficiency decreases and increases inactivity periods.

At first glance, it may seem that an airline can compensate for the situation by combining manufacturers. However, operate A mixed fleet It implies logistics complexity and high costs. An Airinsight analysis concluded that the expenses derived from managing two types of fleet – parties, training, documentation, crew ratio – are amortized in just 12–15 months and then favor significant savings in the useful life of the fleet.

The standardization – arrest by a single supplier such as Airbus or Boeing – reduces operational costs, simplifies the training of personnel and speeds up the management of spare parts. In contrast, changing manufacturer forces to reorganize supply chains, train pilots and technicians in new models and adapt maintenance infrastructure. The latter implies from updating the hangars and workshops to the physical requirements of the new plane, to acquire specific tools. For many airlines, that entrance barrier seems to explain why they continue to depend on boeing fleets even when Airbus gains ground.

China is also betting on developing its own alternative. The three large state airlines – Air China, China Eastern and China Southern – have already committed the purchase of more than 100 units of the Comac C919the passenger plane developed by the Chinese aeronautical industry. Political support is evident, but so are its limits: Production is still reducedinternational certifications are in the initial phase and the technical support network does not have maturity or the Airbus or Boeing scale. For now, C919 is a medium -term promise, but not an immediate solution to meet the enormous demand of the domestic market.

Nevertheless, Boeing is not totally out of the game. In April 2025, several 737 Max prepared for Chinese airlines They returned to the United States After Beijing ordered to suspend deliveries, as part of their response to new tariffs against US products. Although this measure points to a protective impulse of the national industry and the geopolitical strategy, Boeing could still regain land if commercial tension is reduced and access to the Chinese market is resumed. But, for now, Airbus is emerging as a favorite.

Airbus knows well the potential of the Chinese market. According to their own forecaststhe country will need more than 9,500 new commercial airplanes in the next 20 years. Boeing handles a similar figure: Around 8,830 to 9,740 units, depending on the economic and regulatory scenario. In any case, we are talking about a gigantic demand. And at this time, with the orders to Boeing frozen and Comac still consolidating, Airbus has a clear advantage. If the new contract is confirmed, it will not be an isolated case: it will be the reflection of a trend that can mark the distribution of power in commercial aviation during the next decades.

Images | FASYAH HALIM | Takashi Miyazaki

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