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The new map of global power, It no longer happens with having oil. The true strategic value lies in the domain of critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel, copper or rare earths, considered the backbone of essential technologies. Therefore, whoever controls their access, production and refined is equivalent to having the keys to the energy and digital future. According to has estimated In an interview for the Wall Street Journal IEA director Fatih Birol, to have an operational mine, can take up to 17 years. While many countries just begin to move, there is already a country at the head.
The arrival. There is an Italian saying that says: “piano piano if Arriva Lontano”, translated would be that little by little you get away. And it is not surprising that this premise comes as a finger ring for the Asian giant. Since the beginning of this century, Beijing adopted a deliberate large -scale investment strategy throughout the value chain of critical minerals. The result of this bet is that China is currently the main world refining of 19 of the 20 strategic minerals Evaluated by IEA.
More recent data. Between 2020 and 2024, he was responsible for approximately the 80 % of supply growth Global lithium and copper. Control is even more overwhelming in certain key elements:
- The country processes 95 % of graphite which is used in lithium -ion batteries.
- 98 % of rare earths necessary to manufacture high -performance magnets, fundamental in electric motors, wind turbines and advanced military systems.
Out of its borders. Many of the mines and processing plants in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia are owned by Chinese companies or have a large participation of Chinese capital, According to Wall Street Journal. Starting with Indonesia, where much of the nickel, mineral for high energy density batteries is refined. For its part, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the refinement of the cobalt It is in hands of Chinese companies.
They have seen an opportunity. Not everything is extracting, knowing the current situation of the planet have seen an opportunity in recycling. More than two thirds of global growth in battery recycling since 2020 They have taken place in Chinawhich reinforces its leadership even in the final stage of the mineral life cycle. This power, based on sustained investment, low costs and an aggressive industrial policy, makes China not only a dominant supplier, but an actor difficult to replace.
The clock against the West. The regions that seek to reduce their dependence, such as the United States and the European Union, have faced financial, regulatory and logistics barriers. In addition, the recent fall in the prices of many critical minerals has discouraged investment, making even more difficult for new actors to enter the market, such as He explained The Wall Street Journal. This has especially affected emerging companies, whose initiatives have been paralyzed by the lack of clear economic signals.
The reactions. The United States has issued executive orders to accelerate permits and stimulate internal investment. The European Union has launched its Critical RAW Materials Actdesignating 47 strategic projects that will have priority in financing and authorizations. Both blocks seek to weave alliances with producing countries such as ArgentinaBrazil and Australia, with the intention of building more resilient supply chains. However, even if all these projects were approved today, the tangible benefits would not be seen until the second half of the next decade. The window of opportunity to reduce dependence is narrow; The risk of falling behind is real.
The concentration of minerals. According to the IEA86 % of the refined production of key minerals comes from only three countries. In many cases, one: China. More than half of the 20 critical minerals are already subject to some type of export restriction. Since 2023, Beijing has implemented controls on Galio, Germanio, Bismuto, Antimony and various rare earths, many of them essential for electronic, energy and military industries.
It brings consequences. These restrictions have caused abrupt price increases and have turned on alarms in governments and companies. The dependence of such a small number of suppliers converts the entire value chain into a fragile system: a climatic catastrophe, a geopolitical crisis or a technical accident is enough to trigger a collapse of the supply. IEA has estimated That a prolonged interruption in the flow of key metals for batteries could make global prices more expensive by up to 50 %.
A silent threat. Of all minerals, copper emerges as one of the biggest challenges. Although it is not unusual or new, it is absolutely essential for electrification: it is used in smart networks, electric motors, transformers and loaders. The IEA report He has warned That by 2035 there could be a supply deficit of 30 %, due to the drop in the mineral law, the lack of new discoveries and the high development costs. Unlike lithium – new actors have emerged as Argentina either Zimbabwe-, the copper market It is still concentrated in a few countries and is subject to long regulatory processes. The delay in expanding the offer has direct consequences: without copper there are no cables, and without cables there is no electrification. The bottleneck is not theoretical: it is imminent.
The new game of power. In a world that advances towards an electrified economy, critical minerals are no longer one more component: they are the very axis of the energy and technological future. The concentration of its production in a few actors, added to the long development terms and economic barriers, forces countries to act urgently and coordination. The energy security of the 21st century is not played only in the oil wells, but in the tunnels of the mines, the refining ovens and the laboratories of advanced materials. And in this new subsoil geopolitics, time is a resource as scarce as lithium.
Image | Pxhere
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