Russia thought kyiv would fall within days. Four years later, the war in Ukraine has just “passed” the First World War

In 1914, millions of Europeans they were convinced that the war would end before Christmas. In fact, the expression “home by Christmas” became popular between soldiers and civilians who believed that the conflict would be rather brief. It ended up lasting more than four years and transforming Europe forever.

More than a century later, the Ukrainian war has already grown longer.

From days to historical milestone. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Kremlin expected a swift campaign that would culminate in the fall of kyiv within days. More than four years later, the reality is exactly the opposite: the war has reached the 1,569 days duration and has already officially surpassed to the First World War.

What began as an operation designed to quickly overthrow the Ukrainian government has transformed into one of the longest and most consequential conflicts in recent European history, to the point that many Ukrainians they contemplate with concern another historical threshold even more distant: the duration of the Second World War.

The inevitable comparison with 1914. The historians warn that comparisons with world wars have obvious limits due to the differences in scale, number of countries involved and volume of casualties. However, they consider that the war in Ukraine shares enough features with the First World War to become its closest parallel in more than a century.

Both began lightning offensives aimed at achieving a decisive victory within a few weeks. Both the German advance to Paris in 1914 like the Russian push towards kyiv in 2022 came close to achieving their initial objectives before being stopped and forced to retreat.

The return of trench warfare. After the failure of the initial offensives, both conflicts drifted towards long static fronts where artillery dominated the battlefield. The images from the trenches of eastern Ukraine quickly evoked scenes from France and Belgium during the Great War.

Soldiers barely separated a few hundred meterscontinuous bombardments and small infantry assaults became the daily routine. The firepower forced combatants to bury themselves underground to survive, reproducing a pattern that seemed to belong definitively to the past.

Drones change the rules. The main difference between both wars came from the air. The drones profoundly transformed the battlefield and ended up making even traditional trenches vulnerable. Permanent surveillance from the sky and the ability to attack with precision forced the replacement of long defensive lines by small scattered sheltersdifficult to detect and more resistant to attacks.

In many areas, any open-air movement can be located and attacked in a matter of minutes, turning large areas of the front into veritable death zones controlled by unmanned systems.

Tanks, bunkers and dispersal. Technological evolution has also reduced the prominence of some weapons that for decades symbolized modern warfare. Tanks, feared during the early stages of the invasion, have become on easy targets for drones and they appear less and less near the line of contact.

Meanwhile, soldiers invest enormous efforts in building shelters each time more sophisticated and profound. Some bunkers incorporate specific designs to absorb explosions and increase the chances of survival, reflecting the extent to which physical protection is once again a vital issue in an attritional conflict.

Destruction reminiscent of the last century. Although the casualty figures They are very inferior Like those of the First World War, the visual devastation is eerily familiar. Destroyed forests, towns reduced to ruins and fields covered in craters constantly appear in images captured by reconnaissance drones.

Various military analysts hold that the lethality of the Ukrainian front is close to that of the great battles of a century ago, not because of the absolute number of deaths but because of the constant danger faced by those fighting on the front lines.

Stagnation and the search for a way out. The slow pace of progress illustrates the nature of the conflict. In some recent operations, Russian forces have progressed at a pace even slower than that recorded in some of the most stagnant battles of the First World War. With negotiations practically paralyzed, neither side has yet found a formula to break the balance.

Ukraine tries to weaken Russian economic capacity through attacks against energy infrastructures and oil companies while flooding the front with thousands of attack drones, seeking to impose unsustainable costs on the adversary. The final paradox is that a war that began with the promise of quick victory increasingly looks like to the Great War: a prolonged struggle of attrition, marked by technology and with no clear end in sight.

Image | Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

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