The East China Sea is one of the more sensitive scenarios of the strategic balance in Asia for decades. territorial disputes, historical rivalries and the growing weight of new powers have turned these waters into a space where every movement is observed with a magnifying glass. There, apparently minor gestures usually fit into dynamic much deeperand China has just made a move.
The diplomatic fuse. Japan’s detention of a chinese fishing boat within its exclusive economic zone, about 170 kilometers from Nagasaki, has rekindled a relationship already deteriorated between Tokyo and Beijing, with a certain island as a backdrop.
He captain’s arrestafter refusing an inspection, occurs in a context of growing dispute marked by Japanese statements on Taiwan and the subsequent Chinese warnings its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. Therefore, it is not an isolated episode, but rather the visible spark of a maritime tension that had been building for weeks.
Images from space. AIS system data and the images by satellite show unprecedented concentrations of up to 2,000 fishing boats Chinese aligned near the median line between the two countries in the East China Sea.
The formations, hundreds of kilometers long and with vessels separated by less than 500 meters, remained more than 24 hours in static positions despite adverse weather conditions. In other words, China was concentrating thousands of fishing boats off Japan, and its idea is not exactly to fish.
The maritime militia and the “gray zone”. They counted on Nikkei that the vast majority of these fishing vessels are part of the so-called chinese maritime militiaa civil network that cooperates with the State and the Army in operations that do not reach the threshold of armed conflict.
A priori, this strategy allows pressure to be exerted without formally deploying naval forces, thus making a direct response difficult. In other words, as we count A few weeks ago, what was presented as economic activity could become a test of maritime control or even the interruption of trade routes in the first island chain.
Taiwan as a backdrop. Impossible to ignore it. The maneuvers coincide with statements by the Japanese government warning that a crisis in the Taiwan Strait would be an existential threat for Japan.
Beijing, for its part, considers the island part of its territory and does not rule out the use of forcewhile Tokyo reinforces its deterrent posture. In this context, each movement in the East China Sea takes on a meaning that goes beyond fishing and is integrated into the regional strategic calculation.
A pattern of sustained pressure. Furthermore, the activity is not limited to civil fleets. I remembered the Guardian that the Chinese coast guard has broken presence records around to the Senkaku Islandsalso known as Diaoyu in China, and has released images of patrols in disputed waters for the first time.
Plus: the Liaoning aircraft carrier has expanded its radius of operations near Okinawa, while Beijing advances infrastructure on its side of the maritime median line.
More than boats, an essay. Analysts interpret these concentrations like exercises of mobilization and coordination within the civil-military fusion plan promoted by Beijing. There is no doubt, the capacity of gather thousands of boats civilians at a strategic point in a short time sends a fairly clear message about the possibility of, for example, saturating maritime spaces without openly resorting to force.
In this way, the pulse is no longer so much or only bilateral, but rather a warning to the entire region: China is perfecting tools to shape the balance of the Indo-Pacific, and it is doing so without firing a single shot.
Image | Planet Labs, Marine Traffic, Anna Frodesiak, Micromesistius
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