Although we can keep in mind that winter does not begin until next December 21, coinciding with the winter solsticefor meteorology now we have started with the station from today. A season in which we could all expect a great spell of polar cold to be at home with a blanket and watching a series on television. But the AEMET has lowered these forecasts taking into account to what we experienced in previous years.
Via a post on X The AEMET has welcomed this new winter 2025-2026, but with bad news behind it: it will be much warmer than usual with a high probability. We are not talking about individual “summer” days, but rather a robust statistical signal that covers the entire quarter (December-January-February). What we used to call an anomaly, the data are beginning to call the norm: winter in Spain is fading.
Heat map. AEMET’s seasonal prediction It doesn’t leave much room for doubt. According to probabilistic models, the average temperature will be in the warm zone throughout the country.
Specifically, for the AEMET the eastern peninsula and the Balearic Islands have a probability of a much warmer winter that exceeds 70%. In the case of the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, this is where the “zero zone” of this warming will be found, with a very pronounced thermal increase with respect to its normal values. In the rest of the peninsula, the probability is around 50%, which continues to be a sign that points to having a winter that is as normal as possible with respect to what we have seen in previous years.
The rain. If in terms of temperatures it seems that we are not going to have very good news with a high probability, in terms of precipitation it seems that we must be optimistic. A priori, the models suggest that we will not have an extremely dry winter but nor will it be too wet. And the rainfall seems to be close to the average, although with great variability.
Not all months of this winter will rain in the same way, emphasizing especially the second half of winter, that is, the end of January and February, where the models point to the arrival of dynamic phases with fronts and storms. This is something that may fit with studies on the loss of sea ice in the Arctic, which alters atmospheric circulation and may lead to much more “wet or variable” winters in the Iberian Peninsula, breaking the patterns that we saw in our environment.
28 days of “no winter”. To understand why the AEMET is so sure of this forecast, you have to look in the rearview mirror. The most recent reportslike Climate Central, already warned that last winter Spain experienced an average of 28 days with temperatures above the historical average.
To do this, experts focus on reducing the days where we have temperatures below zero with a sharp drop in the days where there is frost. Furthermore, cities like Valencia are seeing how urban centers are turning into ovens even in the middle of winter.
And it is a serious danger, as the CLIVAR-Spain report warns that this amplification of warming and the alteration of winter variability pose a critical challenge for our ecosystems, which need rest from the winter cold for their biological cycles.
Goodbye to the historic cold. What AEMET is telling us with this forecast for 2025-2026 is that the atmosphere in Spain has more and more accumulated energy. Studies by Funcas and analysis by AEMET itself corroborate that the decrease in snow coverage and the increase in warm episodes are not temporary, but in the end they are the reality we face.
We are facing a scenario where winters do not disappear, but they do “soften” until they become unrecognizable compared to those of three decades ago. If you have thermal clothing prepared for this year, it is possible that, except for occasional episodes of storms in February, it will stay in the closet.
Images | Thomas Holmes Immo Wegmann
In Xataka | “Three days of pure cold”: while the world looks at the polar vortex, bad news accumulates for AEMET
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