To the incursions of Russia in the European airspace that took place last week In Poland, Romania and Estoniaanother in Denmark has joined with chaotic consequences for airlines. NATO has raised the voice while Moscow seems to test the allied cohesion in the Baltic. In the background: a series of movements that indicate two things: anxiety has shot in Europe, and some begin to prepare for a war scenario.
Denmark does not give credit. Denmark has described As an “unprecedented attack” the incursions of drones that have forced to close the airports of Copenhagen and Oslo for hours, leaving tens of thousands of stranded passengers, in an episode that encompasses the wave of aerial rapes and drones attacks in past days To Poland, Romania and Estonia. The aircraft appeared from multiple directions, alternating lights and then disappearing, and the Danish authorities attribute them to “a capable operator”, while the Kremlin denies it.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen He talked about The “more serious” aggression against a critical infrastructure of Denmark and did not rule out any hypotheses, opinion supported by leaders such as Ukrainian President Zelenski and by EU spokesmen, who see a pattern of reckless actions by Russia. NATO celebrated meetings Under article 4condemned the violations and stressed that Rwill effort capabilities and deterrenceand some officials already contemplate the possibility of more forceful responses (even demolition) if these provocations are repeated.
France and preparations. In France, the controversy has exploded after a Publication of Le Canard Enchaînéwhich revealed a letter sent in July by the Minister of Health, Catherine Vautrin, in which she asked French health agencies to prepare for a possible “major commitment” In March 2026. The document urged hospitals to be ready to serve several thousand soldiers during periods that could extend 10 to 180 dayswhich included both French and foreign troops.
The news, despite proceeding from a satirical environment, generated accusations that Emmanuel Macron would be secretly planning the country to the war against Russia. The extreme right, represented by the Eurodiputa Thierry Mariani, It went further suggesting that a conflict would allow to suspend the presidential elections of 2027.
The official clarification. The Ministry of Health He did not deny authenticity of the letter, but he clarified his goal: it was a Preventive Planning Faced with possible risks and threats that could affect the hospital system, including the arrival of a large number of victims of an international conflict.
The measure, according to the Ministerial Crisis Center, sought to guarantee the capacity of the civil health system to absorb a massive flow of military patients in case France, as a member of NATO and ally of Ukraine, was indirectly involved in a war set. It was not, therefore, a war plan per sebut an exercise in advance of contingencies.
Germany and preparations. It happens that Germany It has begun To explicitly plan how to face an eventual large -scale conflict between NATO and Russia, the scene that many alliance analysts place Around 2029.
Reuters explained That the calculation that marks this preparation is as sober as disturbing: up to 1,000 soldiers Germans wounded per day may require medical care in case of an open confrontation, a figure that the inspector general of Health, Ralf Hoffmann, qualifies as realistic based on the intensity of the fighting and the units involved.
Ukraine lessons. The war in Ukraine has radically changed the nature of the injuries. If the bullet wounds predominated before, today the panorama is dominated by the devastating drones effectsMERODERE AND EXPLOSIVE MORMERS, which generate amputations, burns and multiple trauma.
Hoffmann Underline That the “death corridor” of ten kilometers on each side of the Ukrainian front, plagued by hostile UAVs, shows how immediate medical evacuations have become almost impossible: injured should often be stabilized for hours under constant fire before being able to be transferred.
How to evacuate. With this horizon, Berlin is studying Expand your abilities of flexible medical transport, inspired by the Ukrainian experience with hospital trains. It is considered to incorporate trains, buses and a greater number of sanitary aircraft, with the aim of guaranteeing staggered evacuations: initial attention in the front, intermediate stabilization and final transfer to hospitals within the German territory.
This medical logistics chain demands a robust, decentralized and capable system under air and electronic threat. The plan contemplates that the injured receive definitive care especially in civil hospitals, with an estimated volume of 15,000 reserved beds within a national total capacity of 440,000. The coordination between the military medical service and the civil health system will be essential, and the medical body of the Armed Forces, currently 15,000 troops, must be extended significantly to face the magnitude of the challenge.
The Kremlin and article 5. Explained the Financial Times That all this climate of extreme anxiety in Europe possibly responds to a Moscow tactic: to demonstrate that the NATO collective defense clause, Article 5it lacks real value. A hesitant response to a provocation could open the door to Russia trying to “break down” small European states without facing the block as a whole.
Scenarios such as a land incursion under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities in Baltic countries are part of the recurring fears of military planners. To do this, Moscow has uncertainty that surrounds Washingtonwhose contribution represents about 40 % of the military capacities of the Alliance in Europe.
The unknowns Trump. The American factor is decisive. With units of Himars Artillery And tanks already deployed in the Baltic, the military presence is significant, but the key question is what Donald Trump would do in case of open aggression.
Distrust is mutual: in Washington some see the Baltic as excessively ideological and aggressive against Moscow, while in Tallin the vote of the United States is remembered with Russia in the UN as An alert signal. The president’s volatility adds an unpredictable element: as well as surprising authorizing Attacks to IranI could react unexpectedly in a crisis in Eastern Europe.
Between fear and dependence. The great European powers are firm in your conviction To Russia, but they refuse to imagine a confrontation without US military support. The idea of an exclusively European “reinsurance” force stumbles upon doubts about its effectiveness without Washington’s “umbrella.
Even so, reality It is that British, French, German, Canadian, Polish and Finnish troops are deployed in the region and would probably come in defense of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, aware that their own security depends on the destination of these small states.
Conclusion: Prevention. Although an open attack against an NATO member would be a bet extremely riskythe precedent of 2022, when the Kremlin ordered the offensive against kyiv despite the enormous risks, shows that Moscow is able to play with fire.
Neither France neither Germany They are planning a war, but they are preparing an unwanted scenario within an increasingly unstable European environment. In the case of Paris, hospital preparation reflects A pragmatic vision of the National Defense, aware that the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the speed with which a conflict can overwhelm entire health systems.
For Germany, this planning sends a message: Recognize the possibility From a direct clash with Russia and assumes that, if, the magnitude of the injured would force the wounded to mobilize all their national medical infrastructure. Preparation is not only technical, but strategic: it means accepting that European defense in case of Russian aggression will require a total effort of its societies, a return to industrial war scenarios that were not contemplated in the continent since 1945.
Image | 7th Army Training Command, BORN
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings