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In Ukraine, the capture of enemy artillery has become a box of surprises. In November last year, a Dron Parody revealed to what the United States this In the conflict (without being physically). A few weeks ago, the interception of a Russian cruise missile by Ukraine was shocking: they had it Made the “Allies”. The latest: the capture of a Shahed carried a surprising hidden note.
The air war intensifies. Already We counted yesterday. The Russian air offensive on Ukraine has reached a new level of brutality, with a last attack that exceeds the limits previously considered exceptional. Russia launched an unprecedented mass attack that included 298 drones and 69 missiles On one night, a record figure that has put the Ukrainian anti -aircraft defenses in check.
Faced with the foreseeable failure of high the fire conversations, Ukraine is forced to ration your interceptorswhich implies that more and more Russian projectiles will achieve their goal, hitting cities, industries and civilians with increasing intensity.
North Korean missiles and Iranian drones. In addition, since the beginning of the year, Russia has transformed its aerial campaign, focusing its efforts into ballistic missiles (many from North Korea) and in a new generation of Shahed drones of Iranian origin. These drones, like We have been countingnow they are in their sixth version and use automatic learning to attack highly defended areas such as kyiv, which has resulted in recent impacts in shopping centers, residential areas and military training fields.
Plus: The speed of ballistic missiles makes them virtually impossible to intercept without the scarce and expensive PAC-3 missiles of the patriot system, which Ukraine has in insufficient number. For its part, the manufacturing rate of Shahed drones in Russia has grown exponentially: if 300 a month before, now that same amount is generated in less than three days. Filtered documents suggest that Kremlin plans to increase production Up to 500 drones dailywhich could lead to swarms of 1,000 drones in a single operation.
Projection of a shahed
Telegram and drones. Economist He counted exclusively An unprecedented fact. A finding within a Shahed drone demolished in Ukraine has revealed a worrying evolution in Moscow’s technological strategy: a note, allegedly left by a supportive sympathizer engineer, said that Russia is controlling its attack drones through bots in bots in The telegram messaging application.
The reason? This method allows to send flight data and live broadcasts directly to human operators, eliminating GPS dependence and making them much more resistant to Electronic interference Ukraine. The implementation of AI, added to the use of Ukrainian mobile networks and possibly connections via Starlink, marks a qualitative leap in the lethality and autonomy of Russian drones, especially those most recent models of Shahed who use automatic learning to reach precision protected targets.
A threat that does not yield. The response of the West, as we explained this week, has been to eliminate the red line of the “Long -range weapons” For Ukraine to defend himself. Ukrainian crews continue to break down about 95% Of the drones launched against kyiv, but that remaining 5% is enough to inflict devastating damage.
Russian tactics have evolved: drones fly to low height to avoid being detected and then They ascend sharply at altitudes that exceed the scope of short -range weapons. To counteract it, Ukraine He resorted to F-16helicopters and even interceptor drones, but the defense against ballistic missiles remains the weakest point. Only a few countries have systems capable of stopping them, and the United States, which produces the Patriots and its PAC-3 interceptors, it has own strategic priorities.
Time is exhausted. As We summarized yesterdaydespite its urgent need for more patriot batteries (Zelensky estimates that at least ten additional would be necessary to cover the territory), the US administration has adopted a warm posture. Under the pressure of other conflicts and the influence of the hard wing of the Republican party, which is prioritized, Ukraine has ceased to be a strategic priority.
PAC-3 production will increase to 650 units annuallybut that is still insufficient in front of 500 ballistic missiles that Russia would already have stored, according to kyiv. In addition, each Russian missile usually requires two interceptors to be shot down, which accentuates the disadvantage.
New doctrine. Perhaps the latest Ukrainian movements are understood. Given the shortage of media and the growing aerial threat, kyiv contemplates a turn in its survival strategy: not to intercept, but to go to destroy complexes launch, Russian factories and deposits.
This more aggressive position, defended by Analysts like Kostiantyn Kryvolappart of the conviction that without a deterrence activates the rhythm of the attacks will only increase. While Western Defense Systems They arrive with droppers And their abilities will take At least one year In expanding, Ukraine prepares to face an air war alone every time more asymmetric and lethal. In that scenario, each drone or demolished missile can offer clues to combat the disadvantage.
Image | Kyiv City State Administration
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