Europe has decades without a direct armed conflict in its territory, with the exception of Yugoslavia wars in the 90sthe last great episode of violence in European soil. Since then, security in the continent has been marked by A strategy based on deterrence and diplomacymore than in military confrontation. And, suddenly, the conflict in Ukraine recalled that fireworks It is not the same as direct fire.
Europe before Ukraine. As we said, the European armed forces have been reserve for a long time. In fact and how we will see, mostly they have been reduced and adapted to a context of stability, with investments limited in defense and a focus on Peace maintenance and humanitarian assistance operationssuch as missions in Balkans, Africa or the Middle East.
Despite the growth of NATO and its presence in Eastern Europe, European armies have been more accustomed to acting in controlled scenarios that to prepare a direct confrontation against a weight opponent such as Russia.
Fireworks. In fact, this approach has led to many military operations from European countries being Mainly exercises, joint maneuvers and drills in allied countries such as Slovakia, Poland or Latviabut without the real experience of a conventional combat against a military power. And it is not the same to deploy troops for an exercise in the Baltic countries to face in battle against a force like the Russian army.
Enter the war. Under all this context we arrive at this week. A few days ago several European leaders have gathered in Paris to discuss the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine as part of A possible peace agreementalthough the viability of this measure depends largely on the support of the United States. In fact, the summit was promoted by the decision of the Trump administration of exclude Europe from negotiations They started in Saudi Arabia between Washington and Moscow, although Trump has suggested that Europeans could perform “a peace maintenance role.”
Plans and divisions. And then Europe seems to have realized that the “defense” had it careless. According to The Washington Postsome European countries consider The deployment of up to 30,000 soldiersthat, yes, they would not be on the front line, but as a deterrence in case of a resumption of the conflict. Another option, or plan B, is the one that They have called “resettlement force” destined to protect Ukraine from future Russian attacks in case a peace agreement negotiated by the United States is reached. That said, France is the country with the most advanced plans estimating that could contribute almost 10,000 soldierswhile the United Kingdom, through its prime minister Keir Starmer, has opened The possibility of a British contribution.
And so far, because the rest of the countries have shown a more ambiguous position. Sweden and the Netherlands, for example, They do not rule out the shipment of troopsbut they have not made a specific decision. Germany, Poland and Spain have rejected the idea, At least for now. Foreign Minister Olaf Scholz emphasized that Any solution should be based on a strong Ukrainian forcewhile Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland, said that Warsaw “does not contemplate sending Poles soldiers to Ukraine.” For its part, the Spanish government was blunt when pointing out that Peace is still far and only depends on Putinmaking it clear that any military mission should define objective, participants, mandate and leadership.
Strategic objectives. If the “plan B” is given, with a peace agreement underway, the main mission of this eventual “resettlement force” would be guarantee the safety of Ukrainian airspaceallowing the reopening of commercial flights, and protect maritime trade in the Black Sea, fundamental for grain exports and other essential goods for the Ukrainian economy.
It would also be prioritized The protection of key infrastructure such as Public Plant and Public Servicesthat have been constant target of Russian bombing since the beginning of the war.
Ukraine proposes a broader approach. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s security does not necessarily require foreign troops in his territory. Proposed The creation of “Armed Forces of Europe”capable of responding on land, sea, air and artificial intelligence before any Russian aggression. He also stressed that advanced air defense systems would be effective measures to strengthen security without requiring permanent foreign troops.
The elephant in the room. No doubt, Europe’s plan faces important diplomatic obstacles, the first of all: United States support It is, at the moment, uncertain. Although the Trump administration has insisted that European troops must guarantee the security of a future peace agreement, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made it clear that They must be part of a mission not related to NATO and not be protected by article 5 of mutual defense.
Not just that. Even in the uncertain scenario of a peace agreement, the mission and role of Europe would require an American “backstop”that is, a support from the United States in case of a military escalation. Although there are no specific details, this support is expected It focuses on aerial power with operations based on Poland and Romania. In this regard, Starmer and Macron will travel to Washington next week To press Trump and ensure that the United States provides this strategic support.
“Old” defenses. In the background, what is showing is a great weakness in its defenses, possibly oxidized. In fact, the Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, warned this week at the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine is making weapons faster and less cost than any other country in Europe. It is not a trivial detail. It does so despite being at war, which shows the slowness of the continent in strengthening its military capacity.
Frederiksen urged to reduce bureaucracy and increase arms production in collaboration with the United States emphasizing that Europe can no longer act as if it were in peacetime.
The rise of the Ukrainian military industry. From the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine has exponentially increased its armament productionmanufacturing missiles, obuses and large -scale drones. In 2024, 30% of the military equipment used by Ukraine It was already nationally manufactured. Between January and November of that year, Ukraine produced 2.5 million artillery and mortar projectiles, while The EU plans to manufacture 2 million in all 2025.
And if we talk about the scope of drones, Kyiv has become the world’s leader at this timewith More than 1.5 million first -person drones produced in a single year.
Europe and military production lap. Thus, while Ukraine increases its war capacity, Europe is still behind in military production and expense, something that has been recognized by leaders such as Boris Pistorius, Minister of Defense of Germany, and Mark Rutte, general secretary of NATO, who, who admitted that investments have been insufficient.
On the other sidewalk, Russia manufactures more ammunition in three months than NATO produces in a whole yearwhich puts Europe in terms of military preparation. Countries like Lithuania and Estonia have announced that they will raise their military expenditure to 5% of GDPexceeding even 4% of Poland, investment leader within NATO.
A future of the most uncertain. For all this, the war in Ukraine has been a brutal reminder of The need to rethink European defensesince Russia has demonstrated its ability to sustain a prolonged and large conflict, and Ukraine, defending itself, has gone to the saga. Despite the slight increase in military spending European in recent years, the success of Ukraine evidence that The old continent continues to lag In weapons production, ammunition reserves and logistics capacity to sustain a conflict without the support of the United States, and that is now a problem if Washington is ambiguous.
If you want to also, Europe seeks to be a first -line protagonist of a war that started three years ago. An almost reluctant decision that has generated an urgency to rearm and reorganize itself, to adapt to a new geopolitical reality, although the reality is that, after decades of relative peace, it faces the possibility of a conflict for which it was never prepared.
Image | Army Europe, Ministry of Defense
In Xataka | The war in Ukraine has entered its deranged phase: there are drones throwing drones to attack other drones