Demand on trains has fallen. We could think that it is the direct consequence of railway chaos that has set in in the first months of 2026. But no. The last quarter of 2025 already anticipated turbulent times for high speed. And between October and December 2025, prices skyrocketed and demand fell.
Now it is the operators who have to walk a tightrope.
What has happened? That demand for high-speed trains has fallen significantly in recent months. According to data from Trainlinetrain ticket price comparator, the demand for these trips plummeted 30% after the accident in Adamuz (Córdoba) in the middle of last January.
The data could indicate a distrust among travelers as a result, but not everything is explained by the possible fear that those who travel by train may have. And the volume of travelers at the end of 2025 had already fallen. It is something we know now with the publication of the latest report from the CNMCwho collects market movements with a quarter delay or so.
Madrid-Barcelona. The consequences in this report are clear, the volume of travelers fell between October and December 2025 in the Madrid-Barcelona corridor, where prices have settled and there is a smaller difference between companies. According to the CNMC, the main data are the following:
- Decrease in travelers of 13% compared to October-December 2024.
- Fall of the companies with the most expensive prices: -19% Renfe (95.58 euros) and -13.9% Iryo (76.89 euros).
- Rise of Ouigo (+12.8%) which has the cheapest prices (61.42 euros).
The recorded data shows a brutal increase in prices. Renfe has been left without AVLO to fight for the floor price, which has triggered its average ticket but Ouigo and Iryo also multiplied the price of the average bill. In fact, the following increases were recorded compared to the previous year:
- Renfe: +40.2%
- Iryo: +69.0%
- Ouigo: +40.9%
(Much) more expensive, less travel. The increase in prices in Madrid-Barcelona explains several trends:
- This broker is the least sensitive to price variations. Although the volume of passengers has been reduced, the increase in price has been much greater, so it is to be assumed that there are many travelers who continued to use it as round-trip transportation during the day for similar situations.
- The operators have finally had to raise prices to stop making losses. This has meant a reduction in passengers on Renfe (which, as we said, You no longer have AVLO service) and Iryo. Ouigo has grown by 12.9% but its places offered have also grown by 16.1%.
- In the rest of the corridors, only the Valencian has had a substantial price increase (+22.3%) and it has not suffered. Madrid-Seville (-1.9%), Madrid-Málaga (-5%) or Madrid-Alicante (+6.6%) have remained at similar prices. None of these corridors have lost travelers.
What can we expect? A drastic drop in the volume of travelers. That is what we expect from the next CNMC report in which the results for January, February and March 2026 will be noted. There are many reasons that explain the result we expect.
To begin with, the railway chaos that Spanish roads have become since the fateful Adamuz accident:
The most affected. We already know that demand for trains has to fall irremediably given the cuts and speed restrictions that were recorded in the following days, but we must bear in mind that passenger confidence has been eroded since the accident. And not only because of a lack of trust in security, the problem is delays and inconsistency in arrival times.
According to ABC65% of the trains arrived late last February. But it is that The Madrid-Barcelona corridor has been the most affected since clients relied on their Swiss punctuality for business trips. That has been diluted in recent weeks, with speed restrictions that are now permanent and road works. This has triggered air travelers, skyrocketing the price the same to the point that Iberia capped the prices of the Air Bridge at 99 euros.
It remains to be seen if the companies’ alternative has been to lower prices. We will know that when the next CNMC report arrives and we can have a complete picture of how the market behaved and how operators dealt with these inconveniences when they were already rubbing their hands to raise prices.
Photo | Alan Grant
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings