Visa

An economic science fiction text has sunk Visa and Mastercard in the stock market. The reason is more disturbing than the story itself

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Citrini Research, a hedge fund American published this week a text written as if it were a macroeconomic memorandum from June 2028. It is not a prediction, its authors warn. It is a speculative exercise. A feasible scenario. It has achieved 24 million impressions, and counting. It is not an anecdotal tweet. The markets they have responded by sinking. Visa has fallen 4.4%. Mastercard, 6.3%. American Express, almost 8%. And Capital One, 8%. This deserves an explanation. And it’s not what it seems. Between the lines. The market reaction is not explained by the specific content of the Citrini Research report, which includes arguments as debatable as that AI agents will abandon cards to pay with stablecoins in Solana. Antonio Ortiz, technology analysts, has pointed it out precisely: part of the argument “it is from the first of Twitter AI-hype“. The idea that an agent will compare twenty food delivery apps vibecodeadas to find the cheapest one smells like a caricature of the future. But the panic is not irrational. It is precisely the panic of not knowing where the limit is. Why is it importantand. What has moved the market has not been so much the thesis about payments but the thesis about the destruction of value. And that is solid: many billions of dollars of market capitalization have been built on a single foundation: that humans are slow, impatient, forgetful and loyal out of inertia. That we do not compare prices. That we renew subscriptions that we do not use. And that we pay commissions that we do not negotiate. An AI agent has none of those weaknesses. And that changes everything. The backdrop. Citrini’s report comes at a time when the so-called “saaspocalypse“is no longer a metaphor. WSJ states that investors are terrified by the possibility that AI ends up doing the work that large software companies bill for today. ServiceNow, Salesforce, business management platforms… all built on the premise that companies need software for their employees to do their jobs. But… what happens when employees disappear? What if the software itself can be replicated in weeks with agentic coding tools? Citrini’s fiction begins exactly there, in early 2026, when a competent developer can reproduce the core functionality of a mid-market SaaS in a few weeks, and constructs a scenario of systemic collapse. The big question. The report’s most disturbing argument is that in every previous technological cycle, job destruction created new jobs that only humans could do. This time, AI is already occupying those new positions as well. If that’s true—if AI improves faster than workers can reorient themselves—the self-correcting mechanism that has always kept creative destruction from turning into outright destruction wouldn’t work. That is the scenario that the markets have discounted this week, even if only partially and speculatively thanks to a creepypasta financial. Yes, but. The scenario requires assuming a speed of adoption that is not guaranteed, a completely absent political response and a total absence of new economic sectors. None of the three conditions are set in stone. Furthermore, as Antonio points out, there is some collective hysteria in the reaction: each announcement or “scary story catches attention and moves investors.” Markets are trading in panic over the unknown. But there’s an important difference between saying “this scenario won’t happen” and saying “this scenario is impossible.” And that difference is exactly what has the market nervous. The alarm signal. The most striking thing this week is that a speculative text, written in economic science fiction format, has been enough to move billions in market capitalization. That says a lot about the state of certainty in the markets regarding AI: it is practically non-existent. Nobody really knows how much a company whose moat It is human friction in a world where that friction is disappearing. The canary is still alive. But investors have stopped trusting the canary. In Xataka | AI promised to revolutionize all sectors. It has only revolutionized programming while the rest is still waiting Featured image | Avery Evans

The European Bizum will soon be a reality. It is very bad news for VISA and Matercard

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Europe will have its pan-European mobile payment system. Although we all thought that we would have a unique and universal Bizum For EU countries, what will happen will be a little different, but just as effective and probably better: long live interoperability. European Bizums connect. As indicated in CincoDíasBizum and the rest of the European platforms that imitated those free transfer functions easily accessible from mobile phones have finally joined forces. all friends. That was the last obstaclebecause all of them wanted to become the unique and universal Bizum. That would have forced the rest of the platforms to say goodbye to make way for that single platform, but instead what will happen is that the different platforms will be interoperable. The agreement includes 130 million connected users. Thanks to this interoperability project, 130 million EU (and Norwegian) citizens will be able to use this system. Not only that: the interoperable platform will be prepared to accept those from other European countries such as Switzerland or even others from markets not belonging to the euro zone. The key is in SPL. This interoperability can be achieved thanks to the so-called Standard Proxy Lookup (SPL), a “directory” service at the European level managed by the European Payments Council (EPC). This service allows banks to check which IBAN corresponds to each telephone number. Everything runs on the SEPA Instant Transfer infrastructureand thanks to new EU regulations, these transfers will soon be mandatory free or will have the same cost as a standard transfer, eliminating the traditional abusive commissions for immediate transfers. In 2026, personal payments. The technical implementation will begin in the coming months, and it is expected that before the end of the year a Spaniard with Bizum will be able to send money to a German with Wero and vice versa in a transparent and simple way. In theory, the operation of the system will not change for users, who will simply have to enter the recipient’s mobile number, regardless of the EU country, so that the transfer is carried out instantly. Shops in 2027. These personal payments with the European Bizum will end up giving rise to the other great option of the system: payments in electronic stores and points of sale. This option will arrive a little later, in 2027, and will undoubtedly be the great spearhead of these platforms against the two fierce competitors that dominated this segment. Setback for Visa and Mastercard. This agreement allows the European Union to have an internal payment system that will allow it to reduce its dependence on the systems that have been the de facto industry standard for decades, those offered by Visa and Mastercard. And a measure of the banks for the banks. European banks are also strengthening their position regarding the digital euro project that the European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing. This currency will in the future allow European citizens to have deposits in central banks without intervention by private banks. That, of course, took power away from these entities, but with this European Bizum they reinforce their role. Another step towards European digital sovereignty. For decades Europe has delegated all its digital systems to companies, especially from the US, and this project confirms an increasingly strong trend: that of European digital sovereignty. When processing payments within a European banking network, citizens’ consumption data does not go to US servers (as happens when using Visa, Mastercard, Apple or Google). And you can use Bizum without a bank card. This agreement does not prevent the platforms from continuing to evolve and improve on their own. This is what Bizum intends to do, which will launch Bizum Pay this year to pay directly in stores with the current account and without the need for a bank card. This will allow us to avoid dependence on Google Pay or Apple Pay, for example, on our mobile phones. It will first offer this option in shops in Spain, and in 2027, in line with the objective of that interoperable European Bizum, in shops in the EU. In Xataka | The Treasury confirms it: payments for dinner and gifts to your friends through Bizum do not go to the Tax Agency

The US will revoke the visa of Chinese students to protect their AI industry. The risk is that he ends up wounding her death

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China is by far the largest world graduate producer in Stem races (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics), both in absolute and relative terms to the global total. The phenomenon is an exceptional magnitude, but there is a country that has just been slaughtered in their noses: United States. What happened. As they pointed out In The New York Times A few days ago, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, advertisement that the Trump administration “would aggressively revoke” the visas of Chinese students. In these visa cancellations, those students with ties to the Chinese Communist Party (PCC) or those who study “critical fields” that did not define clearly but probably include that of AI will be included. Source: The New York Times. Impact. In 2024 in the United States, 20% of the visas granted to students went to young Chinese students. The measure is worrying for American universities, which depend on international students who pay the full cost – without scholarships – for their annual income. In addition, this decision affects both students who want to ask for a visa from now on and those who are already studying in the country. In total there are about 275,000 Chinese students in all types of university careers. Uncertainty. It is not clear what criteria will be followed to revoke these visas and not as quickly these measures will begin. Nor is it known if China will retaliate, although the number of US students in China is much less significant. In 2020 USA He already expelled to 1,000 Chinese students with ties with Chinese military schools. A massive practice. A report Published by the State Department and the NGO called the Institute of International Education indicated last year that China was the second country with the highest share of international students: only India “exports” more students. In the 2023-2024 COURSE, it received 1.1 million international students, of which 331,000 came from India (23% more than the previous year) and 277,000 from China (4% less than the previous year). Source: CSET. China is absolute power in Stem. If there is a “graduate” graduate producer “(science, technology, engineering and mathematics), that is China. Collected data By cset They reveal that in 2020 China led the number of graduates in these disciplines, with a total of 3.57 million students. Only India approaches with 2.55 million students, but for example in the US the figure is four times lower than in China: 820,000 graduates. Source: CSET. And the one that is most dedicated to these disciplines. Not only is it that China has the greatest number of Stem graduates in the world: it is that the percentage of students who choose these disciplines is also the largest in the world. 41% of students are launched to Stem Carreras. They are followed by Russia (37%), Germany (36%, Iran (33%) and India (30%). In the US, only 20%of students bet on scientific careers. Source: Macro Polo / Paulsen Institute. And that includes AI. In People’s Daily They pointed out A few days ago how approximately 50% of the main researchers of AI are trained in Chinese universities. The worrying thing for the US is not that: they depend a lot on them. A report of the Paulgo Institute of Chicago (USA) recently revealed that 38% of AI experts that develop their professional career in the US They have formed in Chinese universities. They are in fact more than those who have a strictly American origin (37%). China does not stop betting on Stem Education. Between 2012 and 2022 the budget spending of the Chinese government in education increased from 2.2 billion yuan (268,167 million euros) to 4.85 billion yuan (591,187 million euros), more than double. Several Chinese elite universities They have announced His intention to expand his curricula with the objective of prioritizing the strategic needs of the country, and here the AI ​​- who You start teaching in schools– It’s key. Imminent danger. This domain has a direct impact on the capacity of innovation, technological development and industrial competitiveness of China, but also of the countries that allow Chinese students to study and then work in international companies. Cut your wings to that talent is to cut them to innovation. The US will get just the opposite of what it intended. The analyst Alberto Romero explained How these measures are probably designed to protect national security – which Chinese students do not end up “spying” for China. “However, instead of helping the US to enhance their industry, what can happen is that they weaken it. Not only that: that revocation of visas can precisely help China meet their strategic objectives. Nvidia already notified with the hardware. The US opted to veto the export of its advanced chips from AI to China. The shot has come absolutely for the cylinder headand instead of preventing Chinese development and innovation, it has put a rocket. They do not seem to have learned the lesson, and revoke the visas to Chinese students can end up being an even bigger shot that comes out of an even bigger cylinder head. Image | Zixi Wu In Xataka | China has declared the war on private school: why he predicted the prolific “tutorials”

European banks have already defined their plan to depend less on Visa and Mastercard

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Bizum It is a sensational tool for online payments in Spain, but it has a problem: it is not international. Or at least not much. International online payments in the European Union depend largely on two big names: Visa and Mastercard. There is no European system Made in Europe that allows the rapid shipping of money, but it is something that the European payments initiative (EPI) wants to solve. His proposal already has a name, Wero, and his plan is as follows. Context. The European Payment Initiative It was founded in 2020 by 16 banking entities such as BBVA, Santander, Deustche Bank, Grupo ING, Unicredit and BNP Paribas. Its objective is to create a payment system and a European interbank network or what is the same, a platform capable of competing against Visa, Mastercard or PayPal. These are of American origin, so the idea of ​​EPI is to promote the independence and sovereignty of payments. For members “it is no longer a future project, but a need facing all European countries,” as they have exposed in a letter. The problem. That there are many local solutions, but none at European level made in Europe. For example, if we think of payments and money shipments between individuals in Spain and Andorra we have Bizum, but in Italy they have Bancomat, in Portugal they use MB Way, in Sweden it has Swish, in Switzerland they use twint and in other places, such as Germany and Austria, the use of PayPal It is widespread. The proposal of EPI with Wero is “to respond to this challenge through a unique payment solution, all in one, instantaneous and paneuropea, capable of covering over time all cases of payment use that consumers and professionals require.” A second, Wero? That is the name that this “European bizum” received in September 2023. It makes a certain sense: the word consists of “We” (us) and has similar pronunciation to “euro.” In addition, he approaches the word “Vero”, which is “truth” in Latin. He threw himself First in Germany Back in July last year, in France in September and in Belgium in November. Wero is integrated into the banks of the banks, so the experience is, for all purposes, nailed to Bizum’s. Image | Wero And what does it propose? According to exposes the EPI“A unique, safe and avant -garde paneurpea payment platform, with multipurparacities, which can work in all European markets for local and cross -border transactions.” That is, a kind of visa and bizum of Europe for Europe. Although it is not well known yet, Wero has the endorsement of the European Commission and 40 million registered users. In addition, it is already fully functional in both P2P and P2Pro transactions (individuals to companies). However, the reality is that the deployment is being slow. It is normal to be a project of these characteristics, however. For summer of 2025, the EPI plans to launch the payments in electronic commerce in Germany and Belgium to later do so in France and the Netherlands “laying the bases and test points for a viable European solution.” At the end of 2026, EPI intends to add the omnicanal payments, payments at the point of sale or in stores and invoices payments. The idea is to use QR codes and NFC technology. Bizum is international. The efforts are there and Wero is promising. However, and as far as Spain is concerned, it should be noted that Bizum has been international for just a few weeks. At the beginning of the month, Bizum confirmed that it was going to be integrated with Bancomat and MB Way, the payment solutions of Italy and Portugal, respectively. Banco Santander, Abanca and OpenBank already support international shipments. Caixabank, BBVA and Banco Sabadell will do it soon. Cover image | Wero

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