The polar vortex collapsed for just a few hours, but it showed us how unstable this winter is coming

Although it sounds complicated, the stratospheric polar vortex is, quite simply, the Earth’s large system of cold air and low pressure. One to the north and one to the south, rotating around the poles, acting as a barrier that keeps the frigid air away from the temperate zones of the planet. . And that’s exactly what happened in November. A sudden warming of the Arctic stratosphere (rises of up to 30 degrees in a few days) caused a huge mass of air to enter the troposphere and, in response, the westerly winds plummeted from strong values ​​to almost 0 meters per second. El vórtice se paró. Something extremely rare at the end of November. And it’s not just a scientific curiosity; but it entails a brutal redistribution of air masses. However, the vortex did not break completely: it was a quick and strong blow that left the system in stand-by, but it started again relatively quickly. That’s why, the spectacular consequences that were expected So? While it is true that the warming was “historical”, “very rare” for the dates on which it occurred and “very abrupt”, it must be understood (above all) as a warning that the atmosphere is very unstable this winter. Like a wake-up call: something we have to monitor. What the models say. As explained by MeteoVigothe models indicate that the strength of the stratospheric winds (the “muscle” of the vortex) will decrease again in the coming days; But facing the last days of December (around the 26th) the vortex will tend to recover a more circular shape and an intensity close to the climatic average. And what does all this mean? For Europe (and specifically for Spain), the vortex is something important: determines the probability of cold winters, anticyclonic blockages in high latitudes and trains of Atlantic storms. That is to say, if the vortex strengthens heading into December there will be less probability of extreme arctic irruptions and, possibly, a greater weight of storms. However, all scenarios are open: the models continue to draw the busiest winter of the time. Image | In Xataka | The last hope of winter in Spain is desperate, but increasingly possible: the breaking of the polar vortex

The good news is that the storms will finally give us truce this week. The bad is that time will remain unstable

The last weeks have been marked by instability: rains (we have seen One of the most wet that remember the records), cold and storms several have been protagonists in this spring. Now, after the holiday period, experts foresee a change in the atmospheric trend. Changes, in theory. This week will be A week of changes at the atmospheric level with respect to the dominant trend during Holy Week. Of course, at ground level these changes will be noticed rather: instability and rains will continue to accompany the day -to -day life of many Spaniards, although in some areas the increase in temperatures can take the thermometers towards the 30º towards the end of the week. No storms in sight. Meteorological forecasts for the next few days foresee a change in the atmospheric pattern: the storms disappear for the peninsular geography, opening the way to the major influence of anticyclones such as the Azores. According to the forecast of the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet), this will be reflected in an increase in maximum temperatures in the southeast peninsular interior, as well as in mountainous areas of the north. However, this is only part of the story. A tape tall It will become the protagonist In these first days of the week, accompanied by a front that will bring new rains to a good part of the Peninsula. In practice. The Aemet forecastwhich throughout the day will extend to much of the northwest peninsular half, being able to reach areas of the southeast. The forecast also speaks of possible snowfall in mountains of the north end. On Tuesday, instability will increase, with “showers and storms that can be locally strong in areas of the northeast peninsular near the Mediterranean.” If Monday temperatures are experiencing a slight rise, the situation will be reversed tomorrow in some areas, with a notable decrease in the maxims in the Ebro, the east of the Northern Plateau and the Eastern Cantabrian, according to the agency’s forecasts. A more palpable change. As of Wednesday, the change in the atmospheric state could materialize in a change over time. The models foresee that this day the influence of the Azores anticyclone will stabilize the meteorology of the peninsula. The heavens, yes, will remain overcast in the north, with rainfall “weak although persistent”In the area. The showers are not ruled out in the rest of the peninsular territory either. Round of the rains? The situation is expected on Thursday but Friday could see the arrival of A new trough and, with it, the return of rainfall of greater consideration. If the forecasts are fulfilled, this phenomenon will move west throughout Friday and Saturday, leaving rains and even storms. In Xataka | While Spain was pending the rains, something strange was happening with the polar vortex Image | ECMWF

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