The coffee situation was already limit. Tariffs threaten to shoot their price at unbearable levels

The situation of Coffee Market in 2025 It is a gallimatisms. Different factors have caused the price of coffee to experience one of the Greater climbs in historywe must all add one more: the US tariff pulse with the rest of the world. And there is a great question about the table: if the great toasters stop selling both to the US because the costs are unbearable, will they adjust production or sell their surpluses cheaper to the rest of the world? The answer is that … it seems that everyone will make war on their own. Problems everywhere. The 2024 coffee harvest faced a series of problems that caused raw coffee prices to increase drastically. Extreme climatic factors how droughts and irregular rains hit the two Main coffee producers (Brazil and Vietnam). This has affected both the production and the quality of the grain, but they have also caused transport cuts due to Problems on the Suez channelwhich has delayed shipments and increased costs. All this, in addition to other factors, has caused coffee to be going through strong inflationary pressure, with increases that, depending on the week, have reached up to 40% compared to what is seen a year ago. It is something similar to what is happening with cocoa and that has turned coffee into one of the thermometers of the global economy. The blissful tariffs. The one that was missing in the equation was … Trump. Tariffor “tariff” has become the word Favorite From the new president of the United States, and these last weeks we have lived an authentic tariff syrup between countries. It is something that affects markets such as cars, oil, technology, Digital services, food products And, obviously, coffee. These tariffs proposed by the United States are a protectionist measure, but also a throwing weapon with a clear intention: threaten countries To do what the USA wants. A clear example is the Tariff threat to Mexico and Canadatwo of the main US business partners that originated Dimes and Diartes among the presidents of the countries. And also We have seen it with Colombia. If the Latin American country did not yield to the aggressive immigration policy promoted from the White House, the threat was to impose rates of 25% and up to 50%. And what product that the United States loves is one of the world powers? Coffee. Hitting the pocket. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, in 2022 Colombia exported 15.6 billion dollars To the US, of which almost 1.8 billion corresponded to coffee. Coffee is the great merchandise exported by the country, in terms of value, only behind oil. The New York Times warned that imposing 25% or more to Colombian goods would impact the pocket of the Americans and here there are two options: or stop consuming so much … or assume the extra cost. Variety of postures. Boris Wüllner is the CEO of Green Coffeeone of the largest producers in Colombia that has been investing great sums In the country. In an interview for The RepublicWüllner comments that it is time for companies to look for the way of being more efficient in the production chain, even toasting the grain on American soil to “avoid a larger tax effect.” In fact, he sees it as a business opportunity. While Latin American coffees will be taxed with 10%, those of Indonesia and Vietnam will face tariffs of a 32% and 46% respectivelywhich will allow, despite those 10%tariffs, the Colombian product is more competitive. Wüllner also considers that it will be the consumer who absorbs the increase that these tariffs will imply, but that they will not stop drinking coffee. Different opinion have from Europe, specifically from Lavazza. Touching the limit. Its executive director, Antonio Baravalle, believes that consumer tolerance is reaching the limit due to high prices and is clear that this increase in costs for consumers is what has generated “an average contraction of the world coffee market of approximately 3.5% in the last two years”. And that the tariffs had not yet come into play. From the US National Coffee Association they share this opinion, commenting that “the great price increase is eaten the liquidity of the customers. They do not have all the money to buy what they need.” Beyond producers and USA. The issue is that it is not an issue that affects only the directs involved. “If the US imposes a 25% tariff on all Colombian exports, the coffee market, which is already red, will heat even more,” I commented A few days ago Javier Blas, Bloomberg columnist. Colombia is the third producer worldwide of a variety, the Arabica, which is also the most appreciated among specialty coffee shops. And that the Colombian market sets out in the United States could impact the rest of the world. Liquefied natural gas. As? With more price increases to cushion the coup to producers and toaster. But … what if the situation were different? Here we can look at the LNG. If large toasters reduce purchases in the US, the most likely scenario is a combination of production and detour adjustments to other markets. In other sectors, such as liquefied natural gas, we have already seen similar dynamics: when US imports decreased after fracking boomexporters they redirected Part of their sales to Asia and Europe, and even slowed their production. Although coffee and LNG play in different leagues (one is an energy raw material, the other a perishable agricultural product), market logic is comparable: less demand in a key destination forces to look for other markets or produce less to avoid collapsing prices. That could be the strategy of large coffee producers, who are already preparing for it optimizing costs and logistics, as Wüllner proposes. Hope? Depends. On the one hand, the FAO (the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization) estimates that The worst has not happened And that, because coffee has no alternatives, although prices rise, consumers will continue to pay them. On the other, … Read more

The US tariffs threaten the massive arrival of ridiculously cheap Chinese products. Europe has a plan

First was the United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Stamer, which made clear The posture of the nation in front of the tariff war. China was more ally than enemy against the turbulence of the global market. Then It was Pedro SánchezPresident of Spain, the one that manifested in the same line. Somehow, both leaders showed that, in the commercial war, there are different interpretations In Europe, and that happens while a word next to China, which will test the regulations of the old continent: dumping. The challenge after tariffs. For years, Europe has seen in China a formidable economic competitor, but many media such as The New York Times They have begun to slide a fear of the escalation of commercial tensions between Beijing and Washington, and how it can transform that challenge into A threat potentially destabilizing for the continent. As? The imposition of Extraordinary tariffs On the part of Trump has raised a commercial wall that prevents Chinese exports from addressing its traditional market, which has lit alarms in Brussels due to the possibility that an avalanche of subsidized products, from electric vehicles to industrial steel, be redir massively to Europe. With key industries such as those of France, Germany or Italy already in a vulnerable situation, the fear is that the so -called dumping (the practice of selling below the cost to eliminate local competition) intensifies until eroding the foundations of European production. Of course, it does not have to be so, and Europe has “weapons” to avoid it. Diplomatic balancing. One thing does seem true. The European bloc is caught between two fires: on the one hand, the pressures of American protectionism and, on the other, the need to contain the Chinese overproduction without triggering an open conflict. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has tried articulate an answer that combines firmness with pragmatism: he has promised to “closely monitor” the Chinese merchandise flowhas created a working group to detect dumping practices and has warned that Europe “cannot absorb excess global capacity.” Her messidated position was applauded by analysts, who consider her the best way to avoid an economic disaster. However, The Times explained that the unit of the continent can begin to show cracks in the face of the magnitude of the problem. Here are the words we commented at the beginning of leaders like Sánchez or Starmer betting on a greater approach to China as a shield in the face of the turbulence of the global market, while other EU members cry out for a more energetic defense of the European industrial fabric. Europe has a plan. The truth is that, in the face of the catastrophic image that has been warned in many media, for years the European Union has adopted a rigorous regulatory approach to contain the massive entry of Chinese products in your market. As? Through A combination of tariff measures, technical controls and non -tariff barriers that act as effective filters against dumping and unfair competition. Among the most outstanding tools are Antidumping research carried out by the European Commission, which have resulted in more than 100 current measures against Chinese products, covering from stainless steel to electric bicycles. In addition, the Rasff system (Fast food and feed alert network) constantly monitor the entry of non -compliant products with European quality and safety standards, blocking dozens of shipments every year. And the reach. To this is added the strict compliance with the regulation called Like Reachwhich requires any well imported good to register and evaluate its chemical substances, a firewall that prevents numerous Chinese industrial products from freely accessing the community market. Thanks to this normative network and its ability to activate ex officio investigations, the EU not only responds to concrete threats, but can also proactively dissuade the entry of goods that They do not meet the standards Europeans, configuring a legal wall that, until now, has effectively mitigated the wave of Asian overproduction. An asymmetric relationship. That said, and beyond the immediate context, the bottom of the problem may lies in an unbalanced commercial relationship. The Times told that Europe has accumulated a record deficit with China, one that in 2023 reached the 332,000 million dollarsfed by state subsidies that distort the market and by regulatory barriers that hinder the access of European companies to the Chinese market. Plus: the European Commission already has classified China as a “systemic rival” And bilateral relations have cooled in recent years, especially after Beijing support to Moscow during the invasion of Ukraine. European commissioners have expressed directly Your concern During recent diplomatic visits to China, demanding more equitable conditions and voluntary restrictions on exports of subsidized goods. Opportunistic messages and alliances. Despite these disagreements, China has intensified its Diplomatic offensive and media to present themselves as a strategic partner of Europe against chaos generated by Washington. From sponsored articles In influential media of Brussels until Official Communities That omit real tensions, Beijing tries to cultivate an image of stability and collaboration. In parallel, he has accepted Resume negotiations With the EU around European tariffs to Chinese electric vehicles, while minimizing disagreements. Meanwhile, European spokesmen respond cautiousspeaking of “reviews” or “continuation of conversations”, without offering clear adhesion or a firm rejection. An ambiguity that reflects not only the complexity of the situation, but also, perhaps, the fragility of a common strategy within the block. A crucial summer. So things, and with a photo that only points to A fear If we rely on European events and norms, the immediate future of European commercial policy could play a key game in the coming months. One is scheduled UE-China Summit For the second half of July, a meeting in which both blocks will try to soften friction before the impact of US tariffs is translated into an overestrial crisis in the European market. At the moment, the EU seems to have adopted a containment strategy: to endure the pull, maintain the balance between firmness and flexibility, and prevent the … Read more

legal and social barriers that threaten the future

Galicia takes time faced disputes for the development of wind energy. In fact, the Galician government offered the energy produced at half price to try to mediate with the neighborhood community. However, this measure has failed to resolve legal conflicts, which has led the sector to take a desperate measure. No more wind. The sector He has faced A break due to controversial judicial decisions, in which more than 60 wind projects are paralyzed. A recent regulation approved by the Xunta, the Natural Resources Lawforces promoters to sell 50% of energy to local companies and to repower the oldest wind farms (more than 25 years). Obstacles in wind. On the one hand, the Superior Court of Xustiza de Galicia (TSXG) has annulled multiple projects for alleged deficiencies in environmental impact studies, applying a more strict criterion than that of other Spanish courts. On the other hand, social resistance has grown, with neighbors and environmentalists denouncing the negative effects of wind farms on the landscape, biodiversity and the quality of communities life. Besides, They have argued that wind development in Galicia is being carried out without adequate planning and without guaranteeing sufficient protection to ecosystems. For its part, and as well They have criticized other communities With greater installed capacity, they have denounced that the Galician community is treated as a “sacrifice zone” to supply other regions without receiving proportional benefits. Sos’s call. The publication of the Law 5/2024 in the Official State Gazettewhich modifies Law 8/2009 on Wind Regulation, has introduced additional measures to help the sector. This law includes the creation of windy renewable acceleration areas, where the environmental impact would be lower and the processing of projects would be carried out more quickly. In turn, the wind canon has been modified to adjust it to the new parks models, which could impact both taxation and benefits for local communities. However, this change has been criticized by various wind bosses, such as AELEC, AEE and APPA, who consider That the regulations distort the market and affect competitiveness. Despite having optimal conditions for wind installation, Galicia has to solve concerns about environmental impact and neighborhood opposition. Looking ahead, it will be necessary to find a balance to continue developing renewable infrastructure. Image | Unspash Xataka | In Europe, 2024 marked a turning point: for the first time solar and wind are eating gas and coal

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