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The horizon of the Gulf of Mexico has once again become populated with lights, cranes and metal structures that rise above the sea as if they were floating cities. At first glance, it might seem like a throwback to a time when offshore drilling dominated American oil, but the context is completely different. At a time when markets anticipate an oversupply of crude oil by 2026 “almost cartoonish”the Gulf is experiencing an unexpected renaissance. An unexpected return. According to the Financial Timescompanies such as BP, Chevron, Talos Energy or Beacon Offshore have reactivated projects that require investments of billions of dollars and that drill more than 3,000 meters under the sea. The clearest signal came from BP. According to Reutersthe British oil company has approved a $5 billion project—Tiber-Guadalupe—that contemplates a platform capable of producing 80,000 barrels per day starting in 2030. It will be its second project in the area prepared to operate at 20,000 psi, a technical leap that opens up deposits previously considered inaccessible. Chevron and Beacon Offshore have also begun producing in ultra-deep fields using these new systems. Gulf production will rise to 1.89 million barrels per day in 2025 and reach 1.96 million in 2026, according to calculations cited by Reuters. These are figures that contrast with the cooling of shale: land formations – especially in the Permian – show slower growth and increasing costs. The keys to the resurgence. There are several very clear drivers for reopening the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. First, the new generation of high-pressure systems—the famous 20,000 psi—has transformed the map of the Gulf. Talos Energy assures that its offshore break-even can fall to $20 per barrel, a level that challenges the myths of the sector and that places the Gulf at an advantage over many shale areas, where the best wells are already exhausted. Land production is no longer the miracle it was in the last decade. As Reuters points outthe most productive areas on land are maturing. The industry must drill more and source less, and that makes each barrel more expensive. Offshore, although requiring massive initial investments, offers decades of stable, large-scale production. In a volatile market, that predictability has become a strategic asset. Finally, another key driver is the political turn. The call “One Big Beautiful Bill”recently approved, requires at least 30 auctions of oil rights in the Gulf of America —name that the White House has begun to impose to refer to its continental shelf— in the next 15 years. In addition, deepwater royalties have been reduced to attract capital. According to Washington Postthe administration is also preparing new auctions in California and the East Coast, breaking with almost 40 years of restrictions. But that movement has sparked a political war: Governor Gavin Newsom rated the plan of “dead on arrival” and warned that he will defend the state’s coast “over our dead body.” A long-term vision. Big oil is not investing for today, but for 2035 or 2040. As Bloomberg has detailedExxon, Chevron and BP are accelerating global exploration because, despite the climate discourse, the International Energy Agency has softened its peak oil forecast, in your current policy scenario (CPS)predicts that global oil demand could increase to 113 million barrels per day in 2050. The platforms that are approved now will produce when the current shale fields are already in decline. The ghost of spills. The rise of the Gulf coincides with a broader geopolitical conflict. According to The Guardianany attempt to drill off California — where no new licenses have been approved since the 1980s — faces fierce opposition, both Democrats and Republicans. Memories of the disaster from Santa Barbara (1969) and of the spill in California (2015) They are still alive. In Florida, explains The New York Times, Even Republicans reject new drilling in the eastern Gulf for fear of the impact on tourism. In addition, the federal moratorium prohibiting drilling off its coast extends until 2032, making any attempt to reopen the area a conflict within Trump’s own party. and the trauma of Deepwater Horizonin 2010, continues to be the underground wound of all debate. Ultra-deep drilling is technically extraordinary, but it also carries high risks: an accident can take months to contain. Mexico looks askance. The boom on the US side of the Gulf has direct repercussions in Mexico. According to the cross-border agreement explained by BOEMthe United States and Mexico share deposits on the maritime border and can exploit them jointly. However, if the United States accelerates drilling with 20,000 psi technologies and Mexico does not keep up with that pace, tension could arise over reserves, inspections and exploitation rights. A saturated global market. The Gulf’s renaissance comes at a contradictory time for the world market. the world heading towards a gigantic crude surplus in 2026, fueled by increased production from Saudi Arabia and Russia. At the same time, China is acting as a global buffer: has purchased about 150 million additional barrels and filled much of its strategic reserves. But that balance is fragile. Analysts warn that if Beijing reduces its purchases, oversupply could emerge suddenly and cause a sharp drop in prices. Furthermore, with interest rates at record highs, storing oil is once again an expensive business: a larger contango would be needed than at any time in the last 25 years for storage to be profitable. A new boom or the last great gasp of oil? Helicopters are flying over the towers again, support ships are queuing in the ports of Louisiana and Texas and oil companies have reactivated one of the largest offshore hubs on the planet. The Gulf of Mexico is experiencing an unexpected renaissance. The question that hovers over this return is uncomfortable and decisive: are we facing a new golden age of deepwater oil or the last great push of an industry that refuses to disappear? For now, politics pushes and technology accompanies, but the reality is that this new “energy heart of the United States” is involved in … Read more