Meteorologists

Meteorologists expected 80 mm of rain in Grazalema, which was already a lot. They are already going for 180 mm

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This Wednesday the storm Leonardo is showing all its strength in a good part of Andalusia, something that has forced to cancel classes or even to mobilize the UME due to the possible floods that may occur. One of the focuses of this storm is set in the Sierra de Grazalema in Cádizone of the places where it rains the most in Spain. The point here is that a large number of liters per square meter was expected to fall, but reality has surpassed everything previously calculated. The data. As collected the user in X @Vigorrothe discrepancy between what the model “saw” and what has fallen from the sky is massive: from a forecast of 60 to 80 mm accumulated at 7 in the morning, has moved to a reality of 180 liters per square meter. And this makes us have many questions in our heads… How is it possible that in the era of Big Data and high-resolution models, we fail by more than double in such a short-term prediction? The answer is in the orography. Harmonie’s failure. The technological protagonist here is in Harmonie-AROMEthe mesoscale model used by the AEMET to predict local phenomena. Unlike global models such as the European IFS, Hamonie is designed to see detail down to resolutions of a few kilometers to calculate, for example, how many liters will fall in a specific location. However, today it failed in the Sierra de Grazalema with the differences that we have seen before. And although the AEMET reacted activating the red warningwith an extreme risk of receiving up to 200 liters in one day, the real-time evolution during the early morning hours was much more explosive than the model output indicated. And the worst thing is that there is still a day ahead. A “wall”. To understand why the software falls short, you have to look at the mountain, and the Sierra de Grazalema acts as a formidable physical barrier against the humid winds of the Atlantic. In this way, when these storms hit the mountains, the air is forced to rise abruptly, cooling and condensing all its moisture in a very small space and gives what is known as orographic enhancement. In this peculiar storm, two factors have come together that have undoubtedly magnified it. On the one hand, we have had an atmospheric river which acts as gasoline for the clouds, intensifying precipitation much more than models anticipate, especially when they collide with a mountain. It fails on the scale. On the other hand, we also have the limitations of the numerical models that we use on a daily basis such as collected in the Stormchaser forum. Here they point out that these models continue to have problems resolving short-duration, high-intensity events in complex orographic areas. And they are good at saying that it is going to rain a lot, but they fail when we talk about the magnitude of a specific flood. It rains in the wet. The problem of this underestimation is not only meteorological, but also hydrological since this torrential rain falls on terrain that no longer supports even one more drop. The context in this case is critical, since the month of January already broke historical records in this area with accumulated amounts of around 1,300 liters per square meter. That is why the soil, which is composed mainly of clays is completely saturated, which means that the infiltration rate is zero, causing everything that falls to immediately run into the bed of the Guadalete River and others. Images | Freysteinn G. Jonsson In Xataka | Spain is preparing for a “festival” of storms in February: with more rain than normal and hardly any cold

After months of indecision, meteorologists already see the girl in Pacific waters

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Meteorologists pay their attention again in the strip that runs through the center-east of the Pacific Ocean. The strip whose temperature warns us of the activity of the oscillation of the southern El Niño, Enso. And, according to these observers, the pendulum gets back. The girl appears on the horizon. The latest data from the NOAA climate prediction (CPC) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) United States They estimate 71% The probability that a girl’s event will arise throughout the last quarter of the year. Taking this into account, the center places the Enso alert state in “Surveillance of the girls.” This state is declared when “when the conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or the girl within the next six months”, and is the first of the alert states provided by the CPC, the other being the other the “warning of El Niño or La Niña” and the “final warning of El Niño or La Niña”, which indicate the beginning and end of an event. A perhaps brief event. The forecasts indicate that we could be facing a relatively brief event of the girl. According to the CPC, the probabilities of the event in the quarter between December of this year and February 2026 are still favorable to the girl, In 54%. However, if the first quarter of 2026 is considered, the most likely conditions are neutrality: 54% probabilities compared to about 39% possibility of the girl. The girl, the cold event. And what does all this imply? The girl is the phenomenon that is opposed to that of El Niño in the homonymous oscillation. If the boy arises associated with a heating of the Equatorial Strip of the West of the Pacific, the girl is associated with a cooling of this oceanic region. At the meteorological level, Enso mainly affects the regions close to this strip, the Pacific coast of South America in particular. It is there where the consequences of this oscillation can cause widesarves. In addition to a cold event, the girl is a dry event that can lead to droughts. This has an impact on agriculture in the region among other factors. And what about Spain?Although to a lesser extent, the consequences of the alternation between the boy and the girl have global repercussions, and can affect the Spanish and European climate. In Spain the girl’s events tend to be noticed, bringing us a colder and dry climate. After a remarkably humid year, this could change the trend for the start of the hydroogical year. A measurement problem.The Unso status update occurs shortly after another organism, the Australian Meteorological Office or Bom (Bureau of Meteorology), will announce the need to introduce changes in its way of monitoring this climatic oscillation. Meteorologists use the temperature of the Pacific reference region as an indicator based on a threshold: if the temperature exceeds that fork, we are facing the child, if the temperature falls, the girl, and if it is maintained inside the parameter, the neutral state is considered. The problem arises because the increase in the average temperature of the waters in the region, the variation occurs with respect to a higher average. The result: there is a risk of detecting more El Niño events than they really occur, as long as the girl’s events are stopped. In Xataka | 2023 was the year in which the child and climate change competed. In the Amazon we already know who won Image | NASA, Jesse Allen

Meteorologists have a name for what is happening in Spain: heat dome

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While a good part of Spain prepares for first heat wave From this summer, meteorologists study what is happening in the atmosphere to answer questions such as how we have reached here or when the extreme heat will end. The first wave is approaching. The State Meteorology Agency (AEMET) launched a Special notice for the arrival of this heat wave. The notice will enter into force tomorrow, Saturday 28, but the most intense days of this episode that will last at least until Tuesday, July 1 will be expected. The heat waves are, By definitionextreme events in which temperatures exceed statistically defined temperature intervals for the time of year. That is, the situation is remarkably hotter than one would expect for these days of the beginning of summer. Heat dome To explain what is happening at the atmospheric level, meteorologists resort to a metaphorical term, the dome or heat dome. Physicist Francisco Martín León explains this concept in a piece for Meteoredalthough the term speaks in itself. The main “ingredient” in this phenomenon is a height anticyclone. When one of these anticyclones remains static in a given area, it tends to catch air masses at lower levels. This air also tends to accumulate heat due to the high insolation associated with atmospheric stability. A shared dome. The peculiar atmospheric situation is not being the exclusive heritage of the Peninsula as on the occasions in which we talk about the “Iberian oven” but the dome formed by the anticyclone also covers a good part of the south and southwest of Europe. Bad news if we consider the temperature increase lived during the last weeks in Mediterranean waters and the risks involved in this anomalous accumulation of thermal energy. 42º and climbing. In addition to its special notice, Aemet has activated various notices due to extreme temperatures. For now it is yellow and orange notices, although it is convenient to pay attention to how the situation advances. For today, the agency expects maximum between 34º and 36º in good part of the country, with some areas that could reach 40º. As the days go by the situation could get worse, with areas such as the Guadalquivir Valley exceeding the 42nd mark. Some predictions They even speak of Andalusian cities that reach the 44th Celsius. An additional problem will be the minimum temperatures. They are expected to fall from the 23rd-25º “in large areas of the southern half and the Ebro valley.” That is, part of the country will encounter “tropical nights” that will make due rest of the people suffering them. Meteosalud. In addition to Aemet notices, Meteosalud, under the Ministry of Health, has issued its own evaluation of the areas with greater and lesser health risk these days. This evaluation warns of high -risk areas in areas of the northern peninsular such as the Ebro Rivera in Navarra, the central area of ​​Huesca or the central depression of Tarragona. In Xataka | We do not know anything about El Niño at this point of the year. That is a meteorological mystery … and good news Image | ECMWF

The girl is coming to an end. The problem is that meteorologists find no trace of what should follow him: the child

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Throughout the year and independently of its state, almost constantly, meteorologists from different parts of the world monitor the swings of the southern oscillation of El Niño, Enso for its acronym in English. It is not for less, to go and return apparently capricious of this climatic oscillation affects, to a greater or lesser extent the meteorology of half the world. In some areas it is much that depends on what happens in a narrow strip of the Eastern Pacific. A very uncertain panorama. The World Meteorological Organization (OMM) has published its latest update on The status of Ensothe oscillation between the events of El Niño and the Girl. According to the report, we are in the neutral area of ​​the oscillation: the girl vanished a few months ago but the boy does not finish appearing. The forecast draws an uncertain panorama: great probability that we stay in a neutral state But with the door open to a 180º turn: the return to the girl. The oscillation of the southern El Niño. A little context. The boy and girl They are the two faces of a climatic oscillation whose epicenter is in the central strip of the Eastern Pacific. When surface water in this oceanic region is heated we talk about the El Niño phenomenon. The El Niño phenomenon especially affects South America and more specifically west of the continent, where it usually makes rainfall increase, often causing extreme events such as floods. The child is also associated with impacts on very different regions, From North America to Asia. The other face of El Niño. El Niño’s last event vanished in mid -2024, giving way to the girl towards the end of the year. The girl It is the other face of this oscillation. If the main consequence of El Niño is an increase in rainfall on the Pacific coast of South America, the girl is associated with less rainfall and a greater probability of drought. The girl also left. In fact, the girl’s last event was shorter and more weak than expected. Back to the start box? The predictions included In the latest OMM report they point out that there is 70% probabilities that this neutrality between the boy and the girl is maintained between June and August, while there is a 30% probability that we return to A second event of the consecutive girl. In the longer term this second scenario Win probability: If we consider the period between July and September, the probability of neutral conditions is reduced to 65%, while the probability of a new event of the girl ascends to 35%. In any case, a transit to the child seems unlikely from here to September. When will we leave doubts? Spring is usually a time of weather uncertainty and that also applies to the oscillation between the boy and the girl. Meteorologists talk about the “Spring predictability barrier”, And once we transfer it we can have a better vision of what is expected this year. Will it affect us? It is clear that southern oscillation has an important weight in the Americas and especially in some areas. However, Enso is a global phenomenon capable of disrupting meteorology into the most disparate places, including Europe. If the child usually associates with warmer temperatures globally, the girl can make Europe and the rest of the world see lower average temperatures this winter. This can give us a new and small respite with respect to what we saw in 2024, the year in which we live the combined effect of the temperatures associated with climate change with an El Niño event that implied that the world began to beat numerous temperature records. In Spain, the end of El Niño’s last event brought us the end of the drought, and that is that experts point out that in terms of rainfall in Europe, Enso’s effects can vary between areas. In the southwest, the girl It is associated with more rainfallso the girl’s return could help keep drought at bay. In Xataka | 250 million years ago, 80% of earth species disappeared. These researchers believe it was a hyperniño Image | Climate.gov/nnvl

Meteorologists have been warning that southern Spain would reach 35 degrees this Sunday. The Sahara had another idea

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Sunday was going to be the key day: the moment when the country, after a very rare spring, was going to receive the first summer bars. By the south, Claro: Seville was directly at 35 degrees and Córdoba would not come down from 32. However, something has changed. Why was I going to make so much heat? For an old acquaintance, an anticyclonic dorsal that is installed on top of our heads and, without wind or clouds, makes temperatures begin to shoot: the Iberian oven. It is the same configuration that causes us the frequent heat waves that visit us every year. The dorsal will continue here, but its effect will be much less than expected. And the fault is a Dana. As the Dana that was in the Atlantic approaches the Portuguese coast, it will displace a huge tongue of Saharian dust that will enter the southern and southeast peninsular. As Nacho Espinos explained And as we have seen on other occasions, the suspension dust “reduces insolation and limits the values” that the thermometers can reach. That does not mean that it will not be hot. Of course it will be hot. Above all, if we compare them with the first two weeks of May. Not only can up to 32 degrees be found in the heart of the Guadalquivir Valley, but many parts of the country will be above 30 degrees. But the 35 degree psychological limit is not going to be achieved. And that the environment will be very murky. It is not necessary to remember that the abundance of dust in suspension, worsens air quality and can generate mild respiratory problems (from mucous irritation or nasal obstruction to itching in the eyes or dryness of the upper respiratory tract). In areas with a very strong calima complications can be greater. Above all, in people with previous ailments. According to The works of the University of La Lagunaup to “2% more people die from heart disease the two days of the phenomena of Calima.” What can we expect? A summer that does not end up landing, even if it is closer. That and A bad air quality. Above all, because to the extent that blockages in Europe continue, the arrival of storms, danas and cold storms can continue an almost indefinite time. That 2025 is strange We have it clear. How strange it will become, It is still to investigate. Image | Copernicus In Xataka | May is putting a March face: Aemet’s great question is if 2025 will definitely end the drought

Meteorologists are dismayed at the heat wave of Africa and Asia

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“We are witnessing something incredible. By far the most extreme climate phenomenon in world history. Thousands of records are beating brutally from North Africa to Asia. And with margins never seen.” These words They are from Max Herradorone of the greatest public experts in extreme meteorological phenomena. And seeing Maps like the one that opens this articleI don’t lack reason. The best example is Kuwait. According to provisional data, the Kuwaiti city of Mitribah exceeded 46 degrees in April For the first time in history. And, just after, he exceeded 47, then 48 and, finally, he put almost 49. It is not an isolated fact: More than 45 degrees in Egypt, in India or in the Middle East; 45 also in Sudan, 45.7 in Chad, 45.5 in Niger; Central Asia records completely sprayed. We talk about absurdly high temperatures for latitude 30 at this point of the year. In the case of Mitribah they are very close figures to the historical maximum reached. In addition, the heat wave has a huge extension that covers three continents. And, as Herrera points out, everything indicates that the situation It will get worse. Tropical tidbits What is happening? It is a great question. Because heat waves They never come alone. They have serious social implications (more aggressions, more violence, more crimes, more Homicides) In areas of the world that right now are a polvorín: Syria, Israel, Ukraine, Sudan … The problem is that we don’t know very well why all this is happening. A priori, we can think that the same atmospheric dynamics that it has given us an extraordinarily wet March and a much cooler spring of what is usual is the one behind the heat waves of much of Central Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. After all, in meteorology the masses of air are pieces that play a strategic dance between them and the changes that occur in any part of the world, have effects on the rest. An increasingly uncertain future. I do not know if Herrera is right and we are living one of the most extreme meteorological phenomena in the documented history of the earth. However, it is clear that the situation only complicated. Not only because things are changing very fast, but because we don’t know where it goes. Image | Tropical tidbits In Xataka | 35,000 dead and 46 ºC in the shadow. This was the penultimate great heat wave that devastated Europe

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