Junior salaries have been in free fall for years. New study suggests the impact of AI is not so obvious

We have been seeing headlines for a couple of years about the destruction that AI is doing to employment junior. And the usual reply: no, it’s an excuse, that companies cut when rates rise and AI is only a convenient justification. Both readings are partly right. That’s just the problem. The study. The Stanford Digital Economy Lab has been analyzing actual payrolls. Not surveys or estimates: payrolls. Published a study at the end of 2025 but keeps updated dashboard with much more recent data. The result. Employment of those aged 22 to 25 in professions highly exposed to AI has fallen since the end of 2022, just when ChatGPT arrived, and lately at a rate of 4% annually. In those over 30, in those same professions, it increases. Coinbase charged 14% of its workforce citing AI as the cause. Salesforce stopped hiring juniors last year. The nuance. The same study adds a very interesting nuance: the effect does not appear when the AI ​​helps someone do their job, but when it does it for them. Write code, answer ticketswrite a first draft: that’s where hiring goes down. Review, verify, support a decision: it remains there. It does not replace human work in general. It replaces the boring job you start with when you are a youngster. It’s time to stop and agree with those who disagree.. In 2001, relocation to India was blamed for a slowdown that actually came from interest rates: when rates fell, hiring returned, and the debate about India remained unresolved. The OECD points in the same direction in your report this month: Unemployment among young graduates was already rising before ChatGPT existed. Coexistence? The two things may coexist. But even if only part of the fall is done by the AI, that part attacks the step that no one else can replace. The intern who answers wrong tickets for six months or do well needing help you’re not wasting your time: you’re learning to fail cheaply in a controlled environment. Removing that step doesn’t fire anyone today. In ten years there will be a lack of people senior and no one will be able to explain why, because by then they will have forgotten that the bottom step disappeared long ago. Featured image | Xataka In Xataka | Spanish companies systematically hide their salary in job offers: there are notable exceptions

Companies are replacing junior workers with AI. Now it’s time to pay the consequences

When artificial intelligence appeared on the horizon, the first thing we thought was that it was going to retire us. Later, he was going to retire the most senior profiles and now we know that it is just the opposite: is stopping job access to junior profiles. In the past, companies competed fiercely to attract young talent, but now Gen Z has found its great rival in AI. Beginners? No, thanks. This Revelio Labs job report reveals that entry-level hiring has fallen by 35% in the United States since 2023. And it is one of many studies: this other of job offers estimates the drop in junior offers between 11 and 20% in the last year. The phenomenon is not exclusive to the United States: in Spain these data from El Confidencial They report that the Big Four are going to reduce the hiring of people under 30 years of age by between 10 and 20%. In the UK, more of the same. AI boosts productivity… if you’re the boss. The business premise is that artificial intelligence can carry out these tasks of those people with a junior profile such as documentation, testing or writing basic code. It is not that these tasks have disappeared within the workflow, it is that they have been absorbed by higher levels in a twist of efficiency and productivity: senior profiles supervise what the AI ​​does. And if, AI screws up. To the question of how many hours of work per week does AI save you? from the consulting company Section collection in The Wall Street Journal There is a clear divergence between managers and staff: 40% of workers think that they are not saving anything because even if there is a quick response, there are errors and hallucinations. When you take into account the time spent going through everything, checking and redoing, the beads are not so round anymore: this Asana studio shows that employees spend 4.5 hours per week correcting AI work. The boomerang effect. That youth encounter yet another obstacle to having a full adult life is a real drama in terms of unemployment, but this paradigm shift in hiring is also a total threat to the stability of the technological infrastructure as we know it: The illusion of efficiency. AI chops code faster than anyone else, but that raw data is misleading because it doesn’t consider side effects like validation. Operational risk. If the AI ​​does not have human supervision at each step, it can make critical errors, serve as an example when half the internet went down for the total automation of Amazon servers. Of costs and responsibilities. If the AI ​​makes a mistake and it reaches the final chain of the process, that is, delivery to the customer, it is paid. Let them tell Deloitte, they had to reimburse the cost of a report prepared for the Australian Department of Employment and Industrial Relations because it contained hallucinations. A demographic bomb. All of the above is a toll that many companies seem willing to pay for the sake of that efficiency, but there is a devastating effect on a large scale in the medium and long term: the knowledge gap. When these senior profiles retire, there will be no one who can replace them simply because you have eliminated the training ground that is experience. The figures have spoken: between 2024 and 2032, 18.4 million professionals in the United States will retire according to this study from Georgetown University. However, only 13.8 million new workers will gain access. About to explode. Part of the work of senior profiles includes mentoring and all its intrinsic benefits: there are studies that confirm that increases motivation, promotes psychological well-being and even reduces exhaustion. In short: saturation of tasks, inability to delegate and the loss of that added bonus of teaching: there are many ingredients for the recipe for burnout. In Xataka | If AI is going to leave us without jobs, in the United Kingdom they are already seriously discussing the solution: a universal basic income In Xataka | We believed that the AI ​​talent war is about engineers and developers. Actually, it’s about plumbers and electricians.

The AI ​​is doing the work that the Junior did before

The labor panorama of the four great consultants in Spain (Deloitte, PWC, EY and KPMG) is about to turn That, a priori, it could be considered a mere change in the hiring criteria for the new employees: they will hire 20% less juniors profiles than in previous years. However, the new rules that will apply known as Big Four They go much further to become a structural change for their future. Tijeretazo to the hiring of juniors. According to information publishedby The confidentialBig Four are joining the trend that had already been observed in some US companies, and will reduce between 10% and 20% the hiring of professionals under 30 years. This is not an isolated phenomenon. According to published The newspaperin the United Kingdom a similar cut since 2022 has been applied. This implies the elimination of between 700 and more than 1,400 junior jobs in Spain, a measure that, according to the sources consulted by The confidentialis being applied homogeneously in all business lines. However, this cut will be more notable in those areas where automation, such as finance, human resources, IT or marketing. Replaced by an AI. The trend It is not new. The automation capacity provided by AI has caused large companies to apply AI to expedite routine and data analysis tasks – as the Preparation of reports o Contracts, validate data, review transactions – that Junior employees used to do as part of their learning process. Such and as they counted in The New York TimesWhen these tasks are covered, companies no longer need such numerous juniors template because, de facto, AI agents become the assistants of the most senior profiles to make them more productive. The result: the learning chain of the professional career of these young people loses its first link formative. Seniors profiles. The Reduction in hiring Junior profiles It implies a change towards priority hiring of senior personnel, increasing its incorporations between 8% and 10% for 2025. This change is carried out with the intention of strengthening the profiles with more experience and strategic vision for its clients, which allows them to open new business roads. Digitization has transformed the business of consultants who no longer focus their model on the billing of consulting hours, but now customers pay for access to tools of artificial intelligence and automated processes that accelerate the delivery of results and They optimize efficiency of the projects. The quarry model falls. The juniors profile cuts far beyond a conjunctural adjustment: this change modifies the traditional pyramidal model of the great consultants, whose base was permanently nourished by young professionals. This constant quarry of new employees allowed gradual training and internal promotion towards management and partners positions. The reduction of that quarry puts at risk the future generation of managers and hinders the rotation and generational relief that characterized these companies. Before they were employees, then customers. In addition, from the merely labor environment, the cut in the hiring of Junior profiles also threatens a key commercial pillar of the sector: many young employees, after a few years in the firm, made the leap to positions of responsibility in other companies. From that position, the new managers They hired the services of his “Alma Mater”, which was a constant source of new clients. The loss of that virtuous circle can weaken one of the most relevant indirect roads of new business generation that these consultants currently have. In Xataka | Billionaire Mark Cuban has a advice for generation Z: “If you have time, use it to learn more about AI” Image | Wikimedia Commons (Luis García)

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