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“We are taking a very serious risk; we have no technical reserves for platform number 31; There is only one position for Soyuz-2 launches (in Baikonur),” warned Dmitri Rogozin, then director general of Roscosmos, on January 25, 2022. That wake-up call went almost unnoticed, but today it takes on unexpected weight. What was then described as a structural vulnerability has become an immediate problem for Russia’s ability to reach low orbit. And, in turn, for the operational balance of the International Space Station. That reflection of 2022 seemed distant until the last takeoff from Baikonur showed that the lack of redundancy is no longer a hypothetical risk. Platform 31/6, from where manned missions and freighters take off to the ISS, was damaged after the launch of Soyuz MS-28 (Expedition 74). The ship docked without problems, but the ramp did not pass the test. From that moment on, the question stopped being technical and became operational: what does it mean for the only infrastructure configured for these missions to be out of service from one day to the next. What happened in Baikonur and how is Russian access to the ISS? The first images of the Baikonur complex after the launch showed that the incident had not been minor. The service platform located under the rocket, a mobile structure of about 20 tons used for access prior to takeoff, a fall appeared in the ramp pit. According to sources consulted by Ars Technica, everything indicates that it was not secured correctly and was ejected by the thrust of Soyuz-2. Roscosmos admitted damage to “several elements” of the complex, although without going into details. The visible magnitude of the impact suggests a more complex repair than the official message indicates. Condition of damaged platform in Baikonur, Kazakhstan Now, one of the least visible elements of the Russian program is the diversity of platforms from which the different Soyuz take off. However, only a subset of them meets the technical and orbital conditions to send crew or cargo to the ISS. That detail explains why the damage in Baikonur generates such an immediate impact on international planning. Current overview of the main ramps: Baikonur, Kazakhstan. Site 31/6 (Soyuz-2): ramp used for manned missions and Progress freighters. Currently not operational. Baikonur, Kazakhstan. Site 45 (Baiterek/Soyuz-5): future candidate, still in the testing phase and without certification for missions to the ISS. Baikonur, Kazakhstan. Gagarin’s Start: symbolic installation of the Soviet program, today deactivated and in the process of becoming a museum. Plesetsk, Russia: designed for high and polar orbits, it is not suitable for reaching the inclination of the ISS. Vostochny, Russia: in use for cargo missions, but not configured for crewed flights or missions to the ISS. The temporary paralysis of the Russian capacity to launch missions to the station affects a decisive element of the orbital ecosystem: the Progress freighters. These ships not only transport supplies for the Russian segment, but also provide the fuel necessary to periodically raise the orbit of the ISS and use their thrusters to assist in attitude control. Other ships, such as Dragon or Cygnus, have demonstrated ability to contribute in part to these tasksalthough they do not cover all uses of Progress. NASA’s response was not long in coming. According to internal planning cited by Ars Technica, lThe agency has advanced two Dragon cargo missions to ensure sufficient operating margin in the coming months. CRS-34, initially scheduled for June 2026, moves to May, and CRS-35 moves from November to August. One source describes these changes as a “direct result” of the Baikonur incident. The goal is simple: ensure that the station has supplies without depending on the uncertain schedule of upcoming Progress missions. Launch of Soyuz MS-28 from Baikonur on November 27, 2025 From the outside, the agency has insisted that the station maintains sufficient capacity for the maneuvers of reboot and attitude control and that no immediate impacts are expected. Everything seems to indicate that the rescheduling of the Dragon missions works as an additional cushion. Roscosmos claims to have of the necessary spare parts and maintains that the repairs will be completed “in the near future.” However, the official estimate contrasts with the valuations collected by the Russian newspaper Kommersant. In that publication, Aleksandr Khokhlov, a member of the St. Petersburg branch of the Russian Cosmonautics Federation, maintains that the repairs could be prolonged from half a year to more than a yeardepending on the actual extent of the damage. Added to this are the extreme temperatures in Kazakhstan in winter and the budgetary pressure derived from the war in Ukraine. What happened at Baikonur reminds us that the architecture of the station depends on both technical decisions and political priorities. NASA has already reinforced its operating margin and now the question is how Russia will respond to a setback that reveals the lack of redundancies in its infrastructure. The pace of repair and the willingness to sustain their participation will mark the stability of the program in the coming months. Ultimately, this episode anticipates the challenges of a stage in which the ISS requires more effort than is sometimes visible. Images | NASA (1, 2, 3) | Roscosmos In Xataka | We already know when the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS will be closest to Earth and what’s better: how to see it