fearsome

The war in Iran is going to repeat a suicidal scenario from 1980. But with drones and kamikaze boats in the most fearsome point on the planet

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At first glance it is just a strip of water between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, but its importance it’s huge. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the few places on the planet where global trade it literally depends of a maritime corridor just a few kilometers wide. Every day dozens of supertankers and monster container ships pass through it, connecting the Middle East. with the rest of the planeta constant choreography that moves energy, raw materials and essential products on a global scale. Therefore, when something happens there, the effect is greatly felt. beyond the Gulf. The most dangerous bottleneck on the planet. As we said, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical geographical points of the world economic system and also one of the most vulnerable. At its narrowest point it barely reaches 33 kilometers wide and thousands of ships pass through it every month connecting the Persian Gulf with the rest of the planet. Through this maritime strip it circulates around a fifth of oil that is traded in the world, large volumes of liquefied natural gas and an essential part of the industrial raw materials that sustain the global economy. But its importance goes beyond energy: it is also a key artery for trade in fertilizers and chemicals that end up directly influencing food production. When this route is interrupted, not only are the energy markets altered, the entire chain that connects agricultural fields, the chemical industry and supermarkets is shaken. War stops traffic. The military escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran has brought that critical point to the brink of a historic crisis. Attacks on oil tankers and commercial vessels, along with direct warnings from Tehran to shipping companies, have caused traffic through the strait to reduce. almost to zero in matter of days. Several vessels have been hit by projectiles or dronessome energy facilities in Gulf countries have been attacked and oil prices have reacted immediately with strong rises. Shipping companies and insurers have begun to cancel policies or dramatically raise war insurance costs, as some ships attempt to cross the zone with their location systems turned off to reduce the probability of being identified as a target. Washington’s response and the convoys. Faced with the risk that the global energy flow will be blocked, the United States has raised an extraordinary measure: escort oil tankers and commercial vessels with the US Navy and also offer financial guarantees and political insurance to reassure shipping companies. The idea seeks to avoid a global energy shock, but it implies send warships directly to the most dangerous area of ​​the Gulf. Organizing maritime convoys is a complex operation that requires destroyers, aircraft and military resources that could not be used in other missions. Furthermore, even with an escort, experts remember that ships would continue to navigate within an extremely hostile space, where reaction times to attacks can be reduced to minutes. The ghost of the eighties. I was counting this morning the financial times that the situation inevitably reminds one of the most tense episodes of the Cold War in the Middle East: the so-called “tanker war” which developed during the conflict between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s. So both countries They systematically attacked maritime traffic in the Gulf with missiles, naval mines and air strikes. A kamikaze battle involving more than four hundred commercial ships were damaged or sunk and the United States deployed dozens of ships to escort convoys and protect oil tankers. Still, the risk it was huge: American frigates were severely damaged by mines and missiles and dozens of sailors were killed. That crisis demonstrated the extent to which a regional conflict could put global trade in check. The difference: drones and kamikaze boats. The war in Iran is about to end repeat the scenario suicide bombing of 1980, but with a difference: now there are drones and kamikaze boats at the most fearsome point for the planet. From then until now the Iranian arsenal has evolved radically and today it combines long-range anti-ship missiles, thousands of cruise shellsarmed drones, diesel submarines, modern naval mines and fast vessels capable of swarming attacks. Added to this are unmanned surface vehicles, small ships loaded with explosives that hit the hulls of ships at the waterline, causing flooding in the engine room and rapid sinking. In a strait “so narrow” and close to the Iranian coast, these systems offer Tehran a obvious tactical advantage. An economic weapon to paralyze everything. Even without completely blocking the passage, the simple risk of attacks can paralyze maritime traffic. Recent history of the red seawhere attacks by militias allied with Iran diverted trade routes for months, shows that it only takes a few incidents to skyrocket shipping costs and force shipping companies to look for much longer alternative routes. In Hormuz the effect would be much greater because it is of the natural exit of the energy production of the entire Gulf. Tanker freight rates have already skyrocketed and any sign of mines or new attacks could double shipping prices again. A global pulse with unpredictable consequences. Close Hormuz also has a cost for Iranwhose economy depends largely on exporting its own oil, especially to China. However, the strategic logic of the conflict could push Tehran to use the strait as an economic lever to pressure Washington and its allies. In any case, the longer the war continues, the greater the temptation on both sides to use energy as a weapon. In that scenario, the world could face a perfect storm: skyrocketing oil, scarce fertilizers and more expensive food. All concentrated in a strait just a few kilometers wide that once again becomes the most fragile point in the global economic system. Image | eutrophication&hypoxiaNZ Defense Force, National Museum of the US Navy In Xataka | Shahed drones are spreading terror in the Gulf. Ukraine has offered the solution, and the price to pay has a name In Xataka | Spain has … Read more

The soldiers of the Roman Empire crushed Hannibal and Viriatus, but they were unable to defeat a fearsome enemy: diarrhea.

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If there is a civilization to which the Spanish collective imagination dedicates festivities and various events, that is the Roman empire. Nevertheless, they were more than six centuries in the Iberian Peninsula thanks to its magnificent expansion work. In its heyday, Rome It covered three continents: from Great Britain to the Carpathians in Europe, North Africa and Asia Minor. To carry out such an extension, his legions had great conflicts in the form of the Punic Wars, the battle of Cannae or the Battle of Pydna. The tough battle for intestinal well-being. As if life on the front was not hard enough, the soldiers guarding the northwest border of the Roman Empire had to confront a tough guerrilla war that is not epic enough to appear in the history books but that also caused casualties: that of intestinal parasites. More specifically, in the north of England, near Hadrian’s Wall. Because a team of researchers from the University of Oxford and Cambridge has discovered After analyzing the sewage system of the Roman fort of Vindolanda three types of intestinal parasites: intestinal worms, whipworm and giardia duodenalis. In fact, it is the first time that the giardia in Roman Britain. The three intestinal parasites, under the microscope. Intestinal worms, the whipworm or whipworm and the protozoan known as giardia lamblia, intestinalis either duodenalis They are three parasites of the digestive system that are spread by poor hygiene or by contact between infected human feces with food, drinks and hands. The intestinal worms They are a helminth that measures between 20 and 30 centimeters in length and lives in the intestine. The most common among humans are pinworms and ascariasis. Its presence in the intestine can cause abdominal pain, fever and diarrhea. The whipworms They are nematodes that are about five centimeters long. An adult whipworm can consume 0.0005 ml of blood per day, so a high presence of this parasite can translate into severe anemia. Likewise, they can cause rectal prolapse, appendicitis and diarrhea if accompanied by a bacterial invasion. A whipworm infection is more common in children and in warm, humid locations, as well as in places with poor sanitary and/or hygiene conditions. The giardia intestinal parasites is a type of microscopic parasite that still causes serious outbreaks of diarrhea today. Symptoms of a giardia infection are abdominal cramps, bloating, upset stomach, and loose stools. According to the Mayo Clinicgiardiasis is one of the most common causes of waterborne illnesses in the United States. The least they had was malnutrition and diarrhea. The three types of parasites, which today are easily diagnosed and treatable for a complete recovery, were not so so in ancient Rome. As explains Study co-author and University of Cambridge archaeologist Marissa Ledger: “Although the Romans were aware of intestinal worms, their doctors could do little to eliminate these infections or help those suffering from diarrhea, so symptoms could persist and worsen. These chronic infections likely weakened soldiers and reduced their ability to serve.” Vindolanda Fort is a true gem for history and archeology professionals. Located between present-day Carlisle and Corbridge, in Northumberland, it was built at the beginning of the 2nd century AD to protect the province from attacks by northern tribes and monitor the imposing Hadrian’s wallwhich extends from the North Sea to the Irish Sea, with forts and towers distributed along its length. In the fort there were infantry, archer and cavalry units from all over the Empire. Beyond the magnificence of the construction, the most interesting thing is the juice that Vindolanda has offered to history lovers because thanks to its water-saturated soil a large number of organic objects have been preserved: thousand wooden slats that served as a kind of logbook, more than 5,000 leather sandals and also fecal remains. Sediments from a 3rd century drain from a latrine in the thermal complex have been the source of this research. The wall watchers They defecated alive. From 50 sediment samples taken along the conduit, about nine meters long, they found everything from Roman beads to ceramics to animal bones. And under the microscope, a whole intestinal fauna. Approximately 28% of the samples had worm or whipworm eggs, and one of them had both. Using the biomolecular technique ELISA they detected the giardia. Likewise, they analyzed a sample from another fort built in 85 AD and abandoned in 92 AD, where they found worms and whipworms. Thus they deduced that the soldiers suffered from dehydration and became ill with outbreaks of giardia in summer, normally associated with contaminated and rapidly expanding water. It could be worse. The high load of intestinal parasites detected in Vindolanda is not an isolated fact, as they are similar to other Roman military enclaves such as Valkenburg (Netherlands), Carnuntum (Austria) or Bearsden (Scotland). And they even had to give thanks, because in urban sites like London and York the parasite diversity was greater, including tapeworms. It wasn’t as pretty as it looks.. While there may be preconceptions and romanticisations about what it was like to be a Roman soldier, Dr Andrew Birley, chief executive of the Vindolanda Charitable Trust is clear “Excavations at Vindolanda continue to uncover new evidence that helps us understand the incredible difficulties faced by those posted to this northwestern frontier of the Roman Empire almost 2,000 years ago, challenging our preconceptions about what life in a Roman fort and frontier town was really like.” In Xataka | The death of one empire is the birth of another: the graph that reviews the history of civilizations from 4,000 years ago In Xataka | We have been calling Christians ‘thieves’ for decades for taking Christmas from the Romans. But the story wasn’t exactly like that. Cover | Photo of 709am in Unsplash

In Spain there is no summer without forest fires. Nor in which you do not talk about the fearsome rule of 30-30-30

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In Spain there is no summer without beaches. Nor without fire. Fire is hitting areas of Galicia, Castilla y León, Catalonia either Andalusia, sweeping hectaresforcing to evacuate hundreds of people and affecting even to icons like the place of Las Médulasin the Bierzo. With that backdrop, firefighters remain attentive to a key factor in forest fires. Which? The ‘rule of 30-30-30’. What is the ‘Rule of 30-30-30’? A formula that helps us understand when the elements play against firefighters and favor of forest fires. It is not new And it has above all a didactic dimension, but if something cannot be denied to the ‘Rule 30-30-30’ (o ‘rule of 30’) is that it is intuitive. Basically, what identifies are those scenarios in which the temperature exceeds 30ºC, the wind gusts exceed 30 km/Hy the relative humidity is below 30%, conditions that facilitate the expansion of the flames. Why is it interesting? Because as remember The University of Chile (Uchile) offers “an alert signal”, an indicator that recalls that there have been a cluster of “very favorable conditions” to spread the fire. “The origin of the term is not scientifically demonstrated, but approaches the conditions of extreme care that the manager should take knowledge to take measures,” Miguel Castillo explainsCenter researcher. The ‘Rule of 30-30-30’ stands out for its practical nature, especially when planning fire prevention strategies and informing the population. “It’s useful”, summarize The academic. “For example, if the meteorology indicates that in 72 hours a burst of permanent and dry wind will arrive and the conditions will not fall from the 30ºC or 32ºC, the communities should establish certain mechanisms.” Do more factors influence? Yes. Perhaps heat, intense winds and low humidity are “the ingredients of a perfect storm” for the spread of forest fires, but castle itself remember that there is another crucial factor: the human. Their own data The Ministry of Environment shows that a good part of the great fires that are declared in Spain cause them accidents, negligence or even intentionally. WWF in fact calculates that 95% of fires respond to human causes and 53% are deliberately caused. Man also influences the state of the fields and mountains. “The strong depopulation and rural aging, the cessation of traditional agricultural activities, the absence of forest exploitation and serious policies that manage the territory has transformed the territory,” Remember wwf. “This increase in forest surface does not translate into the increase in healthy, stable and diverse forests. The cultivated and grazing areas in the past are today covered by thickets, young pioneer or monoespecific rods that, without adequate management, are condemned to burn sooner or later. “ Is the ’30’ rule fulfilled? As Castillo recalls, the ‘Rule 30-30-30’ is useful when preventing disasters and alerting the population. Reality however is something more complex. A few years ago Civio analyzed The large forest fires registered between 2007 and 2016 and proved how many of them were adjusted to the ’30 rule’, that is, they had given the mercury above 30ºC, wind gusts of more than 30 km/hyo a humidity of less than 30%. What did you find out? That were adjusted to those parameters 72 of a total of 196 fires, about 37%. The key is again the one that slides the Chilean expert: at stake more factors enter the strictly climatic. “In the devastating expansion of a great fire you have to take into account other variables such as the type of vegetation and topography,” Comment Miguel Ángel Soto, from Greenpeace. Going down to detail. If we analyze the different factors of the ‘rule of 30’ separately, we verify, however, they do influence forest fires. Of the 196 registered fires between 2007 and 2016, in 153 the windfall exceeded 30 km/h. In 80 the temperatures reached or exceeded 30ºC. “The great fires occur by a cocktail effect: the more elements introduce in the shaker, the more possibilities you have to face an ungovernable fire,” agrees Soto “If the ‘rule of 30’ is fulfilled we will be facing the worst possible scenario, but if there are two variables it is also serious.” The last fires that have hit in recent days Galicia, Castilla y León, Andalusia either Cataloniasweeping thousands of hectares, have coincided with a heat wave. In the Bierzo, which has seen the medulla, the thermometer passes from 30ºC with relative humidity levels that have been below 30%. Image | Civil Guard (X) In Xataka | In 1993, an author predicted devastating fires in Los Angeles of 2025 and the “Make America Great Again”

The US has started evaluating the risks that runs if you attack Iran. What worries you most is a fearsome bomb: yours

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While the United States, in Trump’s figure, leafless the Margarita on a possible intervention American military against Iran, several scenarios open, all uncertain, and a technical, strategic and symbolic obstacle: the difficulty of destroying The ForDow Uranium Enrichment Center, a underground installation excavated deep in a mountain. In fact and, as we will see, Washington’s main concern at this time is a bomb … yours. Weigh the risks. He Financial Times and the Washington Post have published two reports on that moment of Impasse that is lived in the administration. While Trump holds intense meetings in the White House crisis room to decide if the United States joins the Israeli offensive against Iran, US intelligence and defense services draw an exhaustive map of possible reprisals that Tehran could trigger. Among the explicit warnings of the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Jamenei (who has threatened to cause “irreparable damage” if Washington intervenes), and the strategic memory of previous cycles Of climbing, the White House faces a decision that could mark the turning point In the conflict. Iranian response options cover A broad spectrum: Direct attacks against American troops or embassies in the Middle East, cybernetic sabotages, terrorist attacks, undercover actions through allied militias such as Hezbollah or hutis, and, perhaps the most serious from the economic point of view, the Ormuz Strait closurewhere a third of the world’s maritime oil travels. The dilemma of deterrence. The United States currently maintains some 40,000 military troops deployed in the region, with eight permanent bases in countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Catar and Arab Emirates, in addition to operational presence in other eleven key enclaves, including Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Oman. The Udeid Air Base in Catar, headquarters of the American central command, houses 10,000 soldiersand other facilities such as the Bahrain Naval Base or the infrastructure in Kuwait house tens of thousands more. Although all have aerial defenses, their geographical proximity with Iran makes them Vulnerable objectives Before a ballistic or cruise missile attack, drones or even irregular command incursions. Iran has a significant arsenal of unmanned projectiles and aerial vehicles, many of them of their own manufacture or adaptations of Russian and North Korean models, and although their response would not be immediate, the internal debate in Tehran about when and how to answer It could be intensified If Washington actively participates in the campaign. The threat of the Strait. He Ormuz narrowneuralgic point of global hydrocarbons trade, represents a Strategic risk first order. Iran has demonstrated in the past (as in 2019when it managed to temporarily paralyze 50% of Saudi production through a combined missile and drone attack) that can seriously affect the world energy market. If you choose to undermine the strait, use fast boats, submarines or coastal batteries to block the passage, the impact on oil prices It would be immediate and global. It happens that they will also It depends on the Strait For its own crude oil exports, which introduces a structural contradiction: damage ormuz would harm both their enemies and itself. Even so, like They point out analysts From the pentagon, deterrence based on mutual vulnerability does not guarantee containment if the survival of the regime is at stake. The precedent of hutis in the red seawhich have managed to interrupt maritime traffic despite weeks of US bombings, demonstrates the effectiveness of sustained asymmetric tactics even under constant military pressure. The mystery of a bomb. And here we reach the main theme from the perspective of the possible attack of the United States. In the heart of deliberations about this possible military intervention against Iran is the difficulty of destroying the center of Uranium enrichment of Fordow, that underground installation excavated deep in a mountain. He counted exclusive The Guardian that Trump has already been informed that the use of the GBU-57 pump could, in theory, Inspore fordow During a limited period of time, but according to sources close to the conversations, the president is not convinced of his effectiveness and has conditioned any authorization to attack the guarantee that the objective can be eliminated definitively. B-52 launching a MOP during the tests, 2009 Reasonable doubt. Doubts feed not only for the tactical complexity of the operation, but also of the evaluation of the Department of Defense: several experts They have warned Not even a GBU-57 pump battery would be enough to completely destroy Fordow, and that only A tactical nuclear weapon I could achieve it with certainty. In this regard, the British newspaper stressed that the option, however, has not been considered Formally and was ruled out in the meetings held between Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegesh and the head of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine. GBU-57 limitations. It We count this week. It is a 13.6 tons pump capable of penetrate underground structures reinforced, the same one that has been the center of multiple debates in the Pentagon since the beginning of Trump’s mandate. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DRA), responsible for testing and analyzing this kind of weapons, has pointed out that Fordow, about 80 meters underground, is beyond the operational reach of this ammunition without a PREVIOUS PREPARATION OPERATION that includes the destruction of aerial defenses, elimination of GPS interference and a possible saturation attack with conventional weapons to weaken the land. Even so, even under optimal conditions, the impact of a GBU-57 pump It could be limited to collapsing tunnels, sealing accesses and burying machinery under debris, but not to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear capacity. The bomb, in addition, has never been used Under real conditions against an installation such as Fordow, which adds technical uncertainty to the already high political risk of initiating an open conflict. Absolute success or deterrence. The Guardian explained That for some high controls, the real problem is not the bomb itself, but the expectation of a “One and Done (unique and decisive attack) that does not conform to operational reality. The retired general Randy Manner, former Draw director, He warned that ForDow could be … Read more

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