Strangely enough, Iran is exporting more oil now in the middle of the war than before the conflict

The global crude oil market is experiencing “the largest supply disruption in history,” as the International Energy Agency warns. But the almost total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz hides a brutal irony: the same waters that are closed to the rest of the world are being used by Iran to export more oil than it sold before the war. The incessant flow. Far from paralyzing, the Iranian export machinery has accelerated. According to data from Kpler, In recent days, ships have loaded a daily average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, surpassing the barrier of the 2 million daily they exported in February. The big question is where all this crude oil is going. The answer is unanimous: towards China. A graph of Statista illustrates that the Asian giant It is, by an overwhelming margin, Iran’s largest buyer, accounting for 90.8% of its oil exports in 2024. Since the war began in late February, at least 11.7 to 12 million barrels have crossed the strait bound for China, according to estimates from TankerTrackers and Kpler collected by CNBC. In fact, how to detail Wall Street Journal, There is an anecdote that borders on the surreal to illustrate this situation: small Chinese tankers navigate the strait communicating by shortwave radio with the Revolutionary Guard. “We are a Chinese ship. We are going to pass; we are friendly,” they announce in English to ensure safe passage. A question of survival. As an expert explains consulted by Deutsche WelleChina has become the “indispensable lifeline” for Iranian exports in a context of harsh Western sanctions. This has created a “parallel market” where independent Chinese refiners buy discounted crude oil by operating outside the US financial system, according to the agency Anadolu. However, global panic is evident. The crisis promptly shot up oil prices close to $120 per barrel, levels not seen in four years. The impact has been such that, how to explain BloombergBeijing has ordered its refineries to cancel export shipments of refined fuel to ensure domestic supply in the face of the volatility of the conflict. The dilemma of Kharg Island. Although the United States and Israel have bombed thousands of military and strategic targets in Iranian territory, there is one enclave that remains mysteriously intact: Kharg Island. This small piece of land, just about 20 square kilometers, is the true jewel in the energy crown, channeling 90% of the country’s crude oil exports. According to analysts Guardian and France 24the answer is economic terror: an attack on Kharg could catapult the price of a barrel to $150, sending global markets into a “nose dive.” Also, how my colleague Carlos Prego explains in Xatakadestroying the facilities would deprive a hypothetical successor government of the main source of income necessary to rebuild the country once the war ends. Iranian evasion tactics. Iran’s export success is not based only on military intimidation, but on complex sanctions evasion engineering. According to The Wall Street Journalthe regime uses a “shadow fleet” made up of old oil tankers that sail without tracking systems and under false flags, such as those of Comoros or Guyana. On a financial level, the sophistication is just as high. Intelligence documents revealed by Euractiv show that Iran uses shell companies in China to carry out euro-denominated transactions, moving hundreds of millions through accounts at European banks such as Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas. Simultaneously, a report of ACAMS exposes how the Revolutionary Guard uses the cryptocurrency ecosystem (with multi-million dollar transactions in stablecoins such as USDT) to launder money and finance their affinity groups without going through traditional banking. Finally, although Iran is trying to diversify its departures using the Jask terminal in the Gulf of Oman – thus avoiding the Strait of Hormuz -, CNBC warns of its extreme inefficiency: Loading a supertanker there can take up to 10 days, compared to the one or two days it takes in Kharg. Triumph in the midst of chaos. The conflict in the Middle East has drawn a counterintuitive scenario. While the large producers of the Persian Gulf are bleeding economically due to the paralysis of trade routes, Iran has capitalized on the chaos. The panic of a global energy collapse acts as an invisible shield that protects the island of Kharg from Western bombing. Under this umbrella of armed immunity, war has not suffocated the Islamic Republic; On the contrary, it has given it a maritime monopoly that allows its ghost fleet to continue feeding insatiable Chinese demand in broad daylight. Image | Photo by Fredrick F. on Unsplash Xataka | China just found a hole in the US’s quietest weapon: an algorithm has hacked its B-2s in Iran, and they have the audio

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