demography Archives - usatoday24

In full birth crisis, in the US there is a movement that aspires to turn its demography: pronatalism

April 6, 2025 by usatoday24

“I want more babies in the United States.” The phrase It’s JD Vance and matters especially for two reasons. The first, because although the Republican had shown before His obsession with birth rates, that specific comment released it in January, during His first public speech as vice president of the country. The second reason is that when Vance pronounced it, he did more than give his personal opinion: he connected with a movement that, although not new, seems to be gaining weight (and visibility) in Trump’s US: Pronatalism. And Vance is not the only media figure (not even in the Trump administration) in tune in with a speech that goes beyond the US and It arrives in Spain. What is pronatalism? Roughly, Pronatalism It is an ideology that advocates Increased birth rate of a country. This is defined by the Cambridge Dictionarywhich affects that its basic objective is to increase the population without having to rely on the arrival of immigrants. That, of course, is the definition with thick stroke. If we go down to detail, many more nuances and a mixture of ideologies that do not always coincide in the background or forms are appreciated. “It can be motivated by cultural, religious, geopolitical or economic imperatives,” comments on The conversation Céline Delacroix, professor at the University of Ottawa, adds: its policies “can manifest in various ways, covering from soft measures, such as stigmatizing those who decide not to have children, other hard, including restricting access to contraceptives.” An objective, several reasons While the pronatalist goal is clear, the argument that accompanies it (and justifies) is not always so much. Under his broad and diffuse umbrella conservatives are grouped with religious motivations that see a social pillar in the family, but also more coincident with Musk. In his case the key is not so much religious as the Fear of demographic collapse and its consequences at a social and economic level. The option to open the doors to migration It would be discarded For them for their fear that It ends up weakening The culture of the country that receives it. Perhaps the best known example of that last profile is the marriage formed by Simone and Malcolm Collinsthe drivers of the organization Pronatalist. Although neither of them arrives at 40, the couple already expects His fifth child and aspires to have at least two more. However, the most striking of their case is not the figures, but it is the ideology that has led them to embrace pronatalism. The Collins They are defined as Tecnopuritanosatheists, anti racist, defenders of LGBTQ+ rights and its vision of pronatalism contemplates the use of in vitro fertilization or genetic selection. Moreover, they themselves They have resorted to both, including the Preimplantational genetic test (PGT) to rule out embryos at risk of cancer or “mental health problems” for which there is no quality treatment. “” We obviously analyze the intellectual coefficient, “they add. Is it something new? No. Natalism or pronatalism exists For several decadesbut in the US it has gained remarkable visibility for several reasons, beyond the expectation that can awaken cases such as collins marriage. One of those reasons, fundamental to understanding its boom, is the Birth decline of the US. The other is the notoriety of certain figures in tune with the main objective of the natives: encourage the birth rate of the country. Vance is one of them. Another is Musk, who has At least 11 offspring and In 2022 came to tweet that “the collapse of the birth rate is, by far, The greatest threat that faces civilization. “Donald Trump himself He has recognized openly that he wants to boost a new “baby boom” in the US. The most revealing movement however has made another high position of Washington, the Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy. Father of nine children, Duffy has gone from rhetoric to the facts when signing A memo which prioritizes projects aimed at communities with high marriage and birth rates. There are those He has interpreted it as a clear example of “pronatalist policy.” The decision of the Transport Department is interesting because, no matter how much Trump pursues a new baby boom or vance you share your desire to see more American babies, there is an issue that is still pending: How to achieve it? After all, the US is not the first country that intends to increase its birth rate and many others, such as Japan, China either South KoreaThey have proven how complicated it results. The jump from theory to facts is also relevant to the natives because it transparent their internal tensions and differences. The magazine The Atlantic reflects it well in An article entitled “The loneliness of the conservative pronatalist”. To encourage birth, there are conservative cutting formulas, such as promoting family values; But also other liberals, such as granting more subsidies to parents or betting on housing promotion policies, a solution that clashes a priori with the efforts of Donald Trump (and Musk) to achieve On the contrary: put the scissors in the administration. Another friction point is what the Collins represent: the use of in vitro fertilization and other practices that arouse misgivings among anti -abortion. The connection with Europe (and Spain) Pronatalism has supporters, but also detractors. And there are a few reasons that explain it. Although people like Collins try to mark distances with racism, even It is not so much The most active pronatals in the US were the white nationalists concerned that other communities surpass them in number. His recent boom is also closely linked to the speeches of figures on the right, such as Elon Musk or JD Vance, who pronounced his famous “I want more babies” during the Life marchan act against abortion. The result is that extreme right formations have capitalized the speech pronatalist as a reaction to feminism and the defense of sexual autonomy that It has been dominating for years In the public sphere. Also to immigration. Spain leaves … Read more

The Japanese demography debacle, illustrated in a graphic that speaks for itself

February 16, 2025 by usatoday24

The Japanese demographic crisis comes from afar. In 2019, we already commented that Japan was extinguishing. In 2018 there were 921,000 births in the country, a worrying number if we take into account that more than 1.3 million Japanese died. That exceptionally low fertility rate It is directly related to a very aging population, so much that it has already been baptized as a “demographic winter.” And it is something that is reflected perfectly in this graph elaborated by Visual Capitalist. And forecasts are not good. Discouraging. We can appreciate the data since the 1950s to see a clear trend that seems to be not changing. On the contrary, everything points to a worsening of a critical situation in the country. There are two very marked moments in the Japanese demographic curve. On the one hand, the population boom that occurred after Second World War. On the other, the unstoppable increase in the population over 65 due to improvements in life. However, at the beginning of the 21st century, the demographic curve began to twist. It is when we see that the amount of population begins to decrease as the amount of aging population takes run at a slope that seems to have no end. Forecast. The data In which they are based for the creation of this graph, they come from the Japan Statistics Office and, beyond the past and current panorama, it offers us an estimate of the country’s future demographic. It is not good and, in this table, we can see the proportion between the total population and those over 65 so far, as well as the projection for 2045: Year Population in millions Population of more than 65 years in millions Percentage 1950 83 4 4.9% 1955 89 5 5.2% 1960 93 5 5.7% 1965 98 6 6.3% 1970 105 7 7.3% 1975 112 10 8.4% 1980 117 19 10.1% 1985 121 14 11.8% 1990 124 16 13% 1995 126 19 15% 2000 127 22 17.4% 2005 128 25 19.6% 2010 128 29 22.8% 2015 127 33 26.3% 2020 126 36 28.6% 2023 124 36 29.4% 2024 124 36 29.3% 2030 123 37 30.1% 2035 120 38 21.9% 2040 117 41 34.8% 2045 113 41 36.4% Consequences. It is not necessary to wait for that 36.4% of the population over 65 to see the consequences: it is something that Japanese society is already experiencing. A clear example is schools: in the absence of children, there are schools that They are being reconciled in other spacessuch as aquariums or sake factories. It is so devastating that it is estimated that 450 centers close every year. Between 2002 and 2020, almost 9,000 closed and, if the trend continues, there are those who consider that, on January 5, 2720, There will only be a child under 14 in the country And long before, All Japanese will swell the same. It is an apocalyptic scenario, almost identical to that seen in the movie ‘Children of men’, but this does not only affect schools. Before the lack of young employees, there are companies that They are already delegating to robots To do the job and diaper companies they have reinvented themselves as adult diaper companies. Not to mention the pension system: without young workers to support it, the pyramid collapses. Measures. From the government, of course, they are taking measures. An example is that, in a curious movement, They want to attract digital nomads. They have also opened to something unusual: companies like McDonald’s have opened their arms to Workers with colored hair. Until not so long, the company prohibited its workers from dying hair and having certain beards, measures that have had to relax due to that demographic fun. There are also government measures, such as Free nursery in Tokyo to promote birth and four -day work week to support family reconciliation. Yuriko Koike, governor of Tokyo, said there was no time to lose and acknowledged that the crisis will not disappear for itself. Success cases. Missing time to see the green outbreaks of the new policies and attitudes of the government and companies in birth, but there are examples within the Japanese society that can give wings to recovery. One of them is Nagi’s. It is a small town that has been placing the problem of birth in the upper area of its agenda years. Apart from the aid for parenting and nurseries, they do not pay books or school materials. There are also incentives such as family rents for a monthly rate of about 345 euros to the change or medical expenses fully covered for minors. Of course, they did not succeed from one day to another and get a rate close to the three points (when the country is closer to a single point) is something that took them two decades and sacrifices, such as the cut in public works projects . They are not the only. Nagi’s change of thought and model has not been simple and there are other measures involved, such as charging tourists for entering into the “miracle” in the town and the incentive for young couples who want to move to Nagi. We need to see how that case of individual success can be extended to a country, but Japan is not the only dramatic case worldwide and, above all, in the Asian territory. South Korea is an example, with 20% of the population over 65 and an enlightening national debate: At what age someone is ‘old man’. In China they do not get rid and, despite His efforts, tax advantagesyou aid, incentives And even his effort for campaign In favor of love and marriages, 2024 closed as the third consecutive year losing population. A quick solution seems immigration, something that Several countries are experiencingbut it is certainly a problem whose solution is not simple and that will not be solved overnight. In Xataka | Demographers have been wondering for centuries when the human population will stop growing. It already has … Read more

The strange effect that soap operas have had in Brazil’s demography

January 31, 2025 by usatoday24

It is evident, by pure common sense, that the most widespread pieces of popular culture can impact tremendously on the behavior of large masses of recipients. Songs of pop artists, ultrataquilla films or literary best-sellers can create fashions, modify customs, generate trends. And among those strong molders of public behavior, few are as strong as television. And within television, contests, news, Talk Shows, realities And yes, soap operas. Telenovelas change people. A couple of studies, ‘Soap Opeas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil‘(‘ Culebrones and fertility: tests from Brazil ‘) and’Television and Divorce: Evidence from Brazilian novels‘(Television and divorce: Tests from Brazilian soap operas’) analyze the impact of snakes on different aspects of the personal life of their spectators. Specifically, these programs have made fertility rates fall (more than 60% from the seventies) and multiply divorces (five times more from the eighties) in recent decades. The fault is from TV. And in the meantime, the number of families owned by television devices have multiplied: by ten, specifically, currently reaching 80% of the country’s homes. Of course, the figures of all this are not necessarily linked directly, but as the studies explain, “the authorities of these countries often have difficulty educating the population in social social and public health matters, due to The high illiteracy rates and the limited circulation of newspapers and Internet access. ” That is, the influence of television on a population with high illiteracy indices is unquestionable. The role of Globe Rede. Both studies emphasize the importation of the growth of Globe linethe most important media group in the country and the fourth largest commercial network in the world. In the nineties, 98%grew, reaching 17.9 million homes when in the mid -sixties, it still did not exist. It is to this expansion to which these complete studies allude, using demographic data related to the increasingly widespread television signal and the unstoppable growth of snakes as a favorite genre in Brazil. How the study was done. The fact that the expansion of Globe is so well documented over the years allows us to contrast with demographic data to put in relation, for example, birth rates with television expansion. It was thus detected that fertility and birth figures were lower in Brazil areas covered by Rede Globo. In fact, these studies calculate the specific percentage: the probability that women in areas covered by the television signal would become pregnant decreased a 0’6. Similarly, and this data is defining, there are no differences in fertility rates in different areas of the country before the arrival of television. The descents of fertility rates were accentuated in years after the issuance of series where social mobility of women was represented. What is seen on television. The soap operas (who see from sixty to eighty million Brazilians regularly) put the viewers in contact with a very specific family model: small, white, well economically positioned, urban (the plots are usually developed in large cities such as river of Janeiro and São Paulo) and consumerist. According to Alberto Chong, economist and co -author of both studies, “the constant exhibition to smaller and less recharged families that television shows may have created a preference for having less children.” That is, the novels present a more desirable family model, and that models the behavior of women, in the image and likeness of what they see in the “novels”, as the snakes are called there. Other data. The studies have analyzed 115 snakes (such as ‘Vale Tudo’ or ‘Dancing Days’) issued between 1965 and 1999 during maximum audience. Studies have counted that in series, 62% of female characters have no children, and 21%, only one, which undoubtedly also supports the theories of these studies. And as an anecdote, there is influence, of course, in the choice of names of children: the probability that the 20 most popular names in an area that received the globe signal included one or more characters names from a series of that year was 33%. In Xataka | The softer of image of your TV is your worst enemy: maybe you should calibrate your TV

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