We already know who is going to drink all the coffee that Brazil will not export to the US for the tariffs: China

If we do not count the water, coffee would be the most consumed drink in the world. It is for his benefits in the agencyby him Caffeine contribution And even for Psychological effects. And a country that has “discovered” coffee is recently China. In fact, consumption has shot in such a way that, in the United States Tariff Vorágineit has become the lifeguard for the main coffee producer worldwide.

Brazil.

Short. In recent months, the coffee segment has lived A ‘perfect storm’ that has significantly raised the price of the Arabica and Robust varieties. Reasons? Several: storms and droughts that have affected the harvest, difficulties in transport and a demand that could not be satisfied. The last factor to join has been Donald Trump with his tariffs.

The threat of tariffs To the main coffee producers, the table has been flying over, but, as he points out Reutersfinally on August 6, a 50% tariff to some Brazilian products. Currently, Brazil sells about eight million sacks annually to the US, assuming a third of the world demand in the North American country each year in a trade valued at 4.4 billion dollars. And we will have to see what happens now that it will be more expensive to buy that coffee.

Approaching China more. Brazil not only sells -Mucho- coffee to the United States: it also exports orange juice and a large amount of vaccine meat, among other products, but China is not really so far from the South American country in commercial terms. In fact, in general, it is its main commercial partner. They buy soybeans (70% of the soy that exports Brazil goes to China), vital iron minerals for the huge steel industry and construction of the ‘Asian giant’, oil, meat, cellulose and other products such as sugar, wood or cotton.

In June of this year, Brazil exported 440,034 coffee bags to the US for the 56,000 bags exported to China, but the figure will change from now on because, as Reuters confirms, China has approved 183 new Brazilian coffee companies to export their product to the Chinese market.

Thirst for coffee. It is something that will come well to Brazil, but that should also influence The cup price In a China where coffee consumption has shot this last decade. It is estimated that its consumption has grown at double -digit rates since 2010, with a growth Annual average of more than 20% that is well above a world average that barely reaches 2%.

In 2023, se They consumed Some 5.8 million bags and it is estimated that this 2025 will rise to 6.3 million, a figure that doubles the consumption of 2019 and, although consumption per person is less than in other countries, the calculation is that there are about 400 million people who drink coffee regularly. And growing.

Coffee shops like mushrooms. Most of these new consumers are young adults between 25 and 44 years who turn Series of common characteristics. They are inhabitants of large cities with high levels of both education and income. And that popularity that is gaining coffee is due, in large part, to the opening of Thousands of new coffee shops and coffee shops.

It is estimated that that Cafeteria boom in China It was more than 50% these last two years, being Shanghai the world capital of coffee shops with about 9,500 shops. And all this translates into a market whose value Keep growingmoving from 38,000 million dollars in 2023 to 43,000 million in 2024.

It could be a Starbucks bar, but it’s from Luckin Coffee

Changing tastes. There is Other factors that influence that growth of the industry, such as urbanization, the increase in middle class and western influence, with brands such as Starbucks and national competition such as Luckin Coffee turning the drink into a kind of “trend” between new generations.

And the “coffee culture” is also planting its seed. It is estimated that instant coffee and drink consumed with others still predominates, as if it were a combined, but the specialty coffee and the consumption of newly ground grain beverages are also making its way to elbows, becoming with more than 40% of the Chinese coffee market in 2023.

In short, the ‘thirst for coffee’ in China not only redefines consumption habits, but can also be economic lifeguards for Brazilian producers before an uncertain international scenario. We will also have to see if US consumers will be willing to pay more for coffee or if, as industry personalities such as the Mandamases of the Lavazza group, that consumer, that consumer is already drowned by the price of the cup.

Images | Shwangtianyuan, Takeoway, Poon Shuishou Simmonz

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