The vast Soviet arsenals that Russia used at the beginning of her invasion of Ukraine They are running out. According to An analysis From the Institute of the kyiv Economy School, shipments from the main Russian military stores have plummeted: from 242,000 tons in 2022 to about 119,000 tons planned by 2025, practically the levels prior to the conflict.
The context of the problem. For decades, Russia maintained huge armament deposits Inherited from the Soviet Union. At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Moscow handed off these stocks to quickly equip their forces. T-72 and T-80 tanks of the 70s were reconditioned and sent to the front. Even some T-54, who entered production in the late 40s, have seen fight in Ukrainian territory.
The current reality. He analysis It reveals that the best quality equipment and easier restoration was the first to be mobilized. Pavlo Shkurenko, an institute analyst, explains that now “Russia is sending less material for reconditioning and repair than we know they can handle repair stations.” This fall would suggest that the reserves have dropped the level significantly.
The desperate solution. To compensate for this shortage, the Kremlin He has massively resorted to his Asian allies. The data show that 52% of the shipments marked as “explosive materials” towards the Russian arsenales in 2024 came from Nakhodka, a port in the sea of Japan used by North Korea. These shipments went from zero before the war to 250,000 tons in 2024. According to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, 40% of all Russian ammunition now comes from Pyongyang.
Beyond North Korea. He analysis It also identifies about 13,000 tons of explosive material that, due to its entrance point near the Caspian Sea, probably come from Iran. Meanwhile, China has become the key supplier of the Russian defense industry, even if it does not send direct military aid. Shipments from the Eastern Border Regions of Russia towards military production centers have almost doubled since 2021, exceeding 3 million tons.
The strategic dilemma. A priori, it seems a lie that Russia depends both on its external partners, especially considering that they want to breastfeed their self -sufficient image. Franz-Stefan Gady, Viennese military analyst, suggests that Moscow is using North Korean ammunition to maintain the rhythm of fire on the front while reserving higher quality Russian ammunition for possible future conflicts with NATO.
What is coming. Russia plans to invest huge sums In rearme futurebut its current situation exposes the limitations of its local military capacity. The war that Putin imagined as a demonstration of force has become a resistance test in which he has ended up depending on allies and an increasing economic cost.
Cover image | Kremlin
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