the largest ballistic attack of the entire war

In 1983, during a soviet drill of nuclear attack, thousands of people spent hours sheltering in the depths of the kyiv metro while authorities rehearsed how to survive to a rain of missiles on the city. Four decades later, the same underground stations have once again been filled with families, improvised mattresses and air raid sirens in the middle of a new war over Europe.

The night everyone feared. Over the past weekend, Russia launched the major ballistic attack of the entire war in an offensive that for hours turned the Ukrainian capital into a continuous succession of explosions, fires and anti-aircraft alarms. The magnitude of the bombing was not only in the number of drones and missiles used, but also in the type of weapons used: Moscow once again resorted to Oreshnik missilean intermediate-range ballistic system originally designed to carry nuclear warheads and whose mere presence has a strong psychological effect on the Ukrainian population and defenses.

For months, kyiv had warned of the possibility of a combined attack designed specifically to overwhelm the Patriot batteries and hit the city with an intensity not seen since the end of 2024. The feeling in Ukraine was that Russia was preparing something differenta show of force intended both to destroy infrastructure and to convey the idea that it still retains the capacity to escalate despite recent setbacks on the front.

Oreshnik and the return of nuclear fear. The appearance of the Oreshnik has partially changed the nature of the air war over Ukraine because it functions not only as a conventional weapon, but also as a political tool of strategic intimidation. The missile releases multiple warheads during flight that fall at high speed in trajectories difficult to intercept even for the American Patriot systems, one of the few shields capable of stopping Russian ballistic missiles.

Although Oreshnik’s previous releases had caused damage relatively limited and it is believed that they used simulated charges, in Ukraine the problem is not only physical destruction but the normalization of a weapon associated with the Russian nuclear arsenal. The Ukrainian and Western authorities had been alerting of preparations for use and the population of kyiv responded by filling subway stations and underground shelters even before the first detonations began.

Wear phase. The attack also exposed a problem that worries kyiv greatly: Ukraine depends almost entirely of Patriot missiles to stop ballistic projectiles and the reserves are increasingly limited after the enormous consumption of interceptors during the war between the United States and Iran. Russia appears to have detected this vulnerability and is using large combined drone salvoscruise missiles and ballistic missiles to force Ukraine to quickly expend extremely expensive and difficult to replace defenses.

On this occasion, Moscow launched dozens of ballistic missiles and Ukraine only managed to intercept a relatively small part, a figure that reveals the extent to which the Russian strategy simply seeks to saturate the enemy defensive system through volume and simultaneity. The worrying thing for kyiv is that the math works in the Kremlin’s favor: manufacturing drones and missiles is much cheaper and faster than producing Patriot interceptors.

The Russian response. The offensive came just hours after Ukraine will hit facilities Russian forces and attack a base of the Rubicon drone unit in Lugansk, one of the most important unmanned warfare formations of the Russian army. Moscow presented the bombing of kyiv as direct retaliation and Vladimir Putin publicly ordered the preparation of a response after denouncing Ukrainian attacks against supposed civilian targets. However, the strategic context goes far beyond simple revenge.

Russia goes through an awkward moment on the front: its ground advances have slowed considerably, Ukraine has managed to attack energy infrastructures deep within Russian territory, and waves of Ukrainian drones have even forced reduce symbolic acts like the Victory Day parade in Moscow. I remembered the new york times that the massive attack on kyiv also seems to respond to the Kremlin’s need to regain psychological initiative and convey that it can still impose enormous costs on Ukraine despite the accumulated wear and tear.

kyiv as an eternal laboratory of war. If you like, the Ukrainian capital has become an extreme example of how contemporary wars are evolving: entire cities operate permanently under aerial threat while the population learns to live with attacks capable of paralyzing civilian infrastructure for hours. He bombing damaged subway entrances used as shelter, destroyed buildings, burned markets and left symbolic scenes such as the melted arches of a McDonald’s among the still smoldering ruins.

At the same time, the attack showed how the border between conventional warfare, psychological warfare and technological competition is increasingly diffuse. Ukraine is trying to compensate for its industrial inferiority by hitting Russian refineries, logistics centers and drone bases with long-range strikes, while Moscow responds by resorting to a mix of volume, aerial terror and weapons designed to send strategic messages as well as destroy targets.

The precedent that worries the West. Finally, the Financial Times reported that there is a growing feeling in kyiv that Russia is using Ukraine as a scenario to test how Western defenses react to massive and prolonged attacks with advanced ballistic missiles. Zelensky insisted before and after the attack in which the repeated use of the Oreshnik and the continuity of this escalation create a global precedent for future conflicts, especially at a time when the United States and Europe observe with concern the arsenal expansion similar in countries like China, Iran or North Korea.

From that perspective, what happened in kyiv would not only affect Ukraine: it also serves as a warning about how they could future wars develop between powers with great missile capabilities and limited anti-aircraft defenses. The most uncomfortable conclusion for the West is that Russia seems convinced that it has found a relatively effective formula for wearing down modern defensive systems through massive, repetitive attacks that are increasingly difficult to contain.

Image | Russian Defense Ministry

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