The war now happens thousands of kilometers from our heads

It could be material for a apocalyptic science fiction film. A missile of the future with antibalistic, hypersonic and exoatmospheric capabilities, triggered in search of its goal to intercept it: a ballistic missile to Match 5 whose technology literally exceeds the same line of karm at 1,500 km away. Both sophisticated systems are in the exosphere to elucidate a single winner. And yet the scene It is happening in These momentscompletely changing what we understood by war conflict.

Invisible theater. The war Between Israel and Iran marks an unprecedented inflection point in the history of the armed conflict, not only for its political implications, but for the radicality of its means and dimensions. What began as an announced escalation, backed by decades of latent tensions, has become a confrontation Without borderswithout terrestrial fronts and without armies facing face to face, an “improved” version of what already We had seen in Ukraine.

Because more than 1,500 kilometers away Among the capitals, without sharing borders and without direct implication of the intermediate countries, both states They are attacked flying over and overcoming alien geographies. Israel displays its aerial power over Iran thanks to a fleet of F-35, F-15 and F-16 long-range, replaced in flight and operating on foreign airspace with total impunity. That operational freedom is only possible because they will go, after years of sanctions, it lacks of air capacity To offer resistance. Thus, in the Iranian heavens, any object that moves must be considered an enemy.

ASIMETRÍAS AIR WAR. It I remembered On the weekend the historian and professor in Columbia, Adam Tooze. While Israel uses guided fighters and pumps precision attacks (including those Antibunker bombs Made in USA), Iran responds with a more economical strategy but No less ambitious: long -range ballistic missiles. It is an asymmetric war. Israel flies thousands of kilometers to launch bombs. Iran launches missiles that travel that same distance through the air.

It We have counted before. Each of these projectiles can cost millionsalthough together they represent a fraction of the value of the Israeli aircraft. The extraordinary thing is that these missiles not only reach objectives to more than 1,000 kilometers away, but also cross The karm linethe border of exterior space, reaching altitudes of up to 400 kilometers Before rushing to your whites. It’s about Exoatmospheric trajectories unpublished in real conflicts, a direct evolution of the technical legacy of the V2 rockets of Nazi Germany, recycled by Soviet and Iranian programs.

The “star” shield. Here appears one of those elements that seem taken from fantastic literature. Because the Israeli response to these attacks Cosmic is Equally Futuristto. Thanks to decades of collaboration with the United States, Israel has deployed the Arrow 3 systeman interceptor capable of neutralizing ballistic missiles in The emptiness of space.

Derived from SDI program from Ronald Reagan, the system (developed by IAI, Boeing, Elta and Elbit Systems) Base on the premise of “impacting a bullet with another bullet”, yes, with a “deficit”: a cost of 2 million dollars per unit. These interceptors reach the Iranian missiles at their highest point, even before they enter the Israeli atmosphere. In fact, the first successful interception in combat occurred November 9, 2023marking a milestone: the first time a missile was destroyed in space during a war.

The dome and the price to pay. Tooze told An anecdote that betrayed the heart of the use of these “stellar” defenses. During The massive attack April 2024, more than 550 projectiles (between ballistic and cruise missiles) launched against Israel. The aerial defense responded successfully, avoiding the closest to a cataclysm. He also counted That the tangible result of that night was that the population returned to work normally.

However, this degree of protection has an exorbitant price: up to 285 million dollars by night in defensive operations, According to the Washington Post. In addition, interceptor missile production is limited. Israeli and American factories simply They cannot manufacture enough Arrow 3 to hold that rhythm for a long time. Hence, in the current conflict, the great strategic question is Who will exhaust before His arsenal: They will go with their missiles or Israel with their interceptors.

Europe and a shadow. Thus, while the United States and its allies carefully observe that kind of “Star Wars in real life” that reagan pursued, Europe seems determined to acteven convincing Spain.

We count it months ago: under the Sky Shield project promoted by Germany, they have Batteries in charge of the Arrow 3 system for billions of euros for that promoted rearme How much Ansia the United States and his wallet. Although the Israeli experience does not automatically translate into the defense of the American continental territory against ICBM, it does for the European continent, which sees in this shield an response to coming threats.

New war paradigm. In the background, something that It intuited From the drone war triggered after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and that this confrontation Missilistics Between Israel and Iran He has enhanced: The beginning of a new military era. Gone are conventional wars where the fronts were measured by terrestrial kilometers.

Today, war is no longer A geographical matter and attack trajectories cross continents and atmospheres, battles are fought From the exosphere Even nuclear facilities basements buried in mountains. What seemed science fiction (intercept rockets in space, living under invisible defensive domes or coordinating surgical bombings at 1,500 km away) is now part of the Routine Arsenal of the most militarized states in the world.

An unpublished experiment. First It was Ukraine. Now, the war between Israel and Iran has confirmed, in geostrategic terms, a Radical rupture. Not only because of its extension or its protagonists, but for the type of technologies That he uses, the scenario in which he is fought and the fundamentally technical, automated and remote nature of his operations.

It is no longer just a regional confrontation: now it points to the beginning of An orbital era of distance war, where supremacy is defined in terms of satellite intelligence, Space ballistic defense and sustained industrial capabilities. If you want, the contest hides a transformation that will mark the way the wars of the future are planned, fight and remember.

Image | POT, Universe

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