While Laurence hits Spain, Aemet fears another four weeks of rain

Just a few hours ago, the high impact storm Laurence was east of the Azores. Not anymore. And on his way to the east Three fronts have already been defined that are impacting the Iberian Peninsula (or are about to do so).

After the little parenthesis of the weekend, the rain is back. And it seems that he plans to stay.

Three fronts? The first, the warm (a hottest mass than what we have now on the country), is entering the Gulf of Cádiz and will leave heavy rains in the Guadalquivir valley. The second will be cold and will water much more water also entering the Southwest.

And finally, an occlusive one will arrive (that is, a compressed mass between two others) that will be the coup of grace and the real problem when high accumulated and heavy rains. With the aggravating thing that, after hours and hours of rain, all drain systems will begin to be collapsed.

Is it dangerous? In some areas it can become, yes. For example, As Álvaro Oliver explainsthe rains that will reach the central system “will clearly exceed 50 mm and even 100 mm at many points.” If we add to that the thaw that will occur, the situation can be complicated.

And, beyond that, the rains They have no heavy to send.

This is what Aemet tells. And, as we say, not only Laurence is going to leave “abundant rains in large areas of our country” and will breathe “temperate air” that will boost the thaw, is that “Wednesday will be a transition day between two storms: Thursday comes another with more rain “yet.

Other? How long will this last? This question has two answers: the short is that we have no idea. We already know how variable the time in spring is. The long one, however, has a lot of crumb to analyze.

Because If we look at ECMWF’s weekly modelsthe European weather model, we will see that the next four weeks appear with positive anomalies in rainfall. It is true that the one that has that most accentuated trend is this that we now start, but (always according to the model) the rainfall above normal can remain much longer than expected.

Image | ECMWF | Sami Ullah

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