usatoday24
After the failed meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump the situation in the Ukraine conflict is more uncertain than ever. While the United States has taken as the first measure the suspension of military assistance, from Ukraine it is requested to sit and negotiate those alleged minerals that would open a negotiating table again. As things are, the question seems clear: how long could kyiv resist Without American help?
In the short term there is no problem. The measure adopted by the Trump administration freezes Ukraine access to The 3.85 billion dollars in military aids previously approved by Congress. Plus: Block the Military equipment delivery which had already been authorized by the administration of Joe Biden. However, and since before the arrival of Trump, Ukraine He has been preparing For a possible cessation of American aid, accumulating armament and ammunition in anticipation of this scenario.
In fact, a senior western official confirmed that much of the necessary military team He entered Ukraine Before Trump’s possession, which will allow the country to stay in combat beyond the estimated period for negotiations of a fire. Fedir Venislavsky, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Defense Committee, said that Ukraine has a safety margin of approximately six monthswhich will allow you to resist in the short term without US assistance. However, he acknowledged that the situation will be much more difficult without the constant flow of weapons and defensive systems.
Ukraine’s biggest bet: drones. In 2025, Ukraine It depends much less on the United States to cover their daily needs on the battlefield compared to the early stages of the war. Its current defensive strategy is based on the use of mines, attack drones and traditional artillery fire to wear Russian forces in A range of 0 to 30 km. In other words, most of the roller casualties (More than 50%) They are caused by mines and national manufacturing drones, which reduces dependence on imported weapons systems.
To get an idea of The “industry” that has ended up forming The country, according to the Minister of Defense, Rustem Uumerov, Ukraine has become the largest drone manufacturer in the world, with a monthly production of almost 200,000 dronesincluding low -cost FPV models with DJI Mavic drones imported from China (although this carries a time in question). In any case, the Ukraine approach has been to expand the “death zone” of Your kamikaze dronesincreasing its scope and lethality, which represents a low -cost alternative to Himars systems and Atacms missiles Americans.
The problem will be at a great distance. Analysts agree that the most serious impact of the suspension will be seen in the ability of Ukraine to perform precision attacks more than 30 km. The reason? The Systems like GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System) They are still crucial to hit strategic objectives in the Russian rear, and the lack of these should affect the operational effectiveness of Ukraine. In addition, the Advanced interceptors suspension Air defense and antimisiles provided by the United States will reduce Ukraine’s ability to protect its infrastructure and troops from Russian missile attacks. Thus, as time passes, these limitations could become critical.
Another key point is Equipment maintenancethe supply of spare parts and technical support. Without the United States assistance, the operational capacity of Ukraine will gradually degrade. Plus: It is not clear if the suspension will also affect the provision of intelligence, training and other forms of indirect support, which could further aggravate the situation. In this sense, much will depend on how much material and spare parts you have managed to store Ukraine and to what extent Europe can intervene to cover the gap. In addition, some European countries have limited inventories and in certain cases the United States could block the transfer of equipment by third parties.
The GMLRS in Action
The Patriots and their interceptors. As we explained, despite European support, the most sophisticated defense systems depend exclusively on the United States. Among them, the Patriot Air Defense Systems and its interceptors, designed and manufactured exclusively on American soil. The impossibility of replenishing these missiles once exhausted will put key cities at risk and Ukrainian strategic locations, increasing vulnerability to Russian attacks with ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones.
Another critical factor is the provision of long -range intelligence. Until now, Washington has provided recognition data to alert Ukraine about Russian bombings with planning pumps and to identify strategic objectives within Russia. The interruption of this information flow would deprive Ukraine of a key advantage in the modern war.
Starlink. Finally, we must not forget the Starlink communications system of Elon Musk, widely used For the Ukrainian forces on the battle front, and that depends on a contract with the Pentagon. Although a possible alternative would be the Eutelsat European satellite service, it is not clear if it could match Starlink’s efficiency and coverage in the middle of the war.
And Europe? It is the great unknown after hearing yesterday that grandiloquent word: rearmament. Europe has tried to compensate for the reduction of US support with significant military assistance, which from the beginning of the war rises to 51 billion dollars. Currently, European aid represents 25% of the totalexceeding 20% from the United States, while the rest of the weapons and supplies comes from the Ukrainian industry or direct acquisitions of the Zelenskyy government.
In some aspects, European support already exceeds the American. It is expected that in 2025 Europe will produce two million projectiles Artillery for Ukraine, compared to the 850,000 planned by the United States. Despite this, combined production remains less than The 4 million projectiles that Russia plans to manufacture this year. No doubt, this lag raises the question of whether the difference in fire capacity will be decisive in favor of Moscow.
Resist and risk. Under this scenario, the suspension of US military aid does not seem to represent an immediate collapse for Ukraine, but yes A progressive deterioration of its war capacity. With the accumulated supplies before Trump’s possession and European support, Ukraine can be sustained for approximately six months, although with increasing difficulties in air defense and strategic recognition.
If it is only an interruption in the supply of ammunition and equipment, the effects will be specific and limited to certain military capacities. However, if the suspension extends to all forms of support, including logistics, intelligence and technical assistance, the systemic impact will be much deeper and difficult to evaluate, with possible cascade effects that could significantly weaken the defensive position of long -term Ukraine.
Of course, a peace agreement would change everything, although at the moment it is very difficult to evaluate how.
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