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Surely it went unnoticed by the vast majority of the planet Between tariffs and war conflicts. Kazakhstan announced last week the discovery of his Greater rare earth sitewith an initial estimate of one million tons of key elements such as Cerio, Lantano, Neodimio and Ititrio, all fundamental for the global energy transition … or to begin a new arms era. And now the news that did reach more people: the EU will invest a fortune in Five Central Asian countries. The official reason? Strive ties.
The truth? The track is one of the five countries: Kazakhstan.
The news. In full escalation of commercial tensions with the United States, the European Union surprisingly announced an investment of 12,000 million euros in Central Asia during its first summit with the five countries of the region (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzista, Tayikistan and Turkmenistan). The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stressed that these funds will go to key sectors as transport, clean energy, connectivity and sustainable development of strategic natural resources.
Tariffs and foreign trade. In a context marked by the new 20 % tariffs imposed by Washington to European imports, von der Leyen stressed that the EU seeks to offer A reliable alternative Faced with powers such as Russia and China, betting on egalitarian associations and investment in local capacities. In addition, the common commitment to the Territorial sovereignty and peace in Ukraine, condemning the Russian aggression and reinforcing the message that respect for international law will be a cornerstone of this new strategic association.
The EU, which already represents 22.6 % of foreign trade And more than 40 % of foreign direct investment in Central Asia, seeks with this summit to consolidate its regional influence and open new trade routes that avoid Russian territory, such as the Transcaspiano corridorKey to reduce the Eastern Energy and Geopolitical Dependence.
A key region. Behind good words are not only sustainable development and regional cooperation, but a critical geoeconomic priority: ensure the supply of essential minerals For the European green transition, the strengthening of its industrial base and the development of its defense capacities, all in a context of growing global tension and structural dependence of China and Russia.
Strategic minerals. The urgency of this strategic turn was evidenced after the recognition of a disturbing vulnerability: in 2023, 94 % of imports European rare earth came from China, Malaysia and Russia.
In addition, China controls the 60 % of world production of critical minerals and 85 % of its processing, while strengthening its own green industry. This concentration of power, added to political proximity between Beijing and Moscow, has led to worrying episodes, such as Chinese restriction to Antimony exporta key mineral in military technologies such as precision optics and night viewers.
Abundance, but with limitations. In this panorama, Central Asia emerges as a realistic and attractive alternative. Kazakhstan currently produces 19 of the 34 minerals critics defined by the EU and could expand this figure 21 in the short term After the announcement of last week. Uzbekistan, meanwhile, is the fifth major supplier Uranium World and has important reserves of gold, silver, titanium and molybdenum.
The region also has lithium, silicon and tungsten, fundamental for batteries, solar panels and electronic defense systems. However, much of these resources are trapped in a poorly developed mining sector, lacking modern infrastructure and technological capabilities for sustainable extraction. There, a priori, money would be destined.
The European strategy. They counted on DW That, in the face of the geoeconomic competence of China and Russia, Brussels seeks to differentiate offering cooperation models based on industrial associations and mixed companies with local actors, favoring direct foreign investment, regional business growth and progressive industrialization.
This approach is especially attractive to Central Asian leaders, who see in it a way to diversify their economies, reduce dependence from Moscow and gain greater strategic autonomy. The cornerstone of this approach would be the Gateway Global Initiativethe ambitious European project of 300,000 million euros conceived as an alternative to the New Silk Route China.
The transcaspian corridor and a promise. A crucial component of the European Plan is the development of the Transpian International Transport Route (Titr), that logistics corridor that would unite China and Europe through Central Asia and the Caspian Sea, reducing traffic times to 15 days and avoiding the step by the Suez Canal or Russian territory.
The problem? The dimension of investment. The implementation of this corridor requires an estimated amount of 18.5 billion euros In infrastructure, of which more than half have already been mobilized by the EU through an investment forum with support from its member states, the private sector, and institutions such as the European Investment Bank and the BERD. To get an idea, the Expert Samuel Vestterbye That this route could multiply container traffic from the current 100,000 to 800,000, with a transformative economic impact for both regions.
The Russian “friend.” No doubt, the European turn also has a clear geopolitical dimension: stop use which makes Russia of Central Asian countries for avoid sanctions Western imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. The European diplomat Kaja Kallas was explicit in that sense when warning in Asjabad that Russian companies should not use the region as commercial escape route.
In this context, the EU needs to balance a incentive and pressures policy: Offer real economic development through infrastructure and commerce, while demanding cooperation in compliance with the western sanctioning regime. Something like the “carrot and stick” approach that analysts see as an opportunity to consolidate strategic relationships that transcend the economic.
Challenges and Emergency. Despite the advances, the European strategy has notable challenges before him. Experts Like Marie Dumoulinof the European Council on Foreign Relations, warn that the concrete projects of the Global Gateway take to materialize and lack visibility in the region, which could weaken the EU’s ability to compete with Chinese or Russian offers.
In other words, that what is said is credible Brussels must Accelerate implementation of infrastructure works, show tangible results and deepen its diplomatic presence in the field. That is, without a coordinated and sustained action, the initial enthusiasm could fade in front of actors that already have an entrenched cultural, economic and political influence in Central Asia.
One More Thing. What seems clearly clear is that the renewed interest of the European Union in Central Asia is not a symbolic gesture, but a structural response to its need for guarantee strategic autonomy in key sectors such as defense (with The announced rearme), digital technology or Energy transition.
In a world increasingly defined by supply chains and their volatibility (tariffs through), critical minerals have become the authentic and precious currency of power (as already We have seen with China). Thus, if the EU manages to translate all those promises into real infrastructure, then that idea of Euroasy Integration seems feasible.
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