7,000 earthquakes in recent days, 11,000 evacuated and the possibility that the worst is to come

After evacuating more than 11,000 people, half of the island’s population, Greece has had to declare the state of emergency on the island of Santorini. For two weeks, the island has suffered thousands of earthquakes. Only on January 4, there were 1,300 with magnitudes greater than 1. Only yesterday, smoke more than 200 and 28 of magnitude equal to or greater than 4.

What is happening exactly in Santorini? A swarm. That is, a succession of thousands of earthquakes in a very concrete space and in a short space of time. As explained the geologist Nahúm Méndezis the direct consequence of the complex geology in the area. It is plaque tectonics, live and live.

Nevertheless, As you recognize The volcanologist of the National Geographic Institute, Stavros Meletlidis, what is happening is not normal: “It is the first time that such an activity is recorded.”

Are the prelude to something greater? It can be, but it doesn’t have to. In general terms, what we are seeing in Santorini is the accumulated product of the tensions that arise from the collision of the European plaque with the African. In the Santorini area, those pressures accumulate until the rocks “can no longer and break”, releasing large amounts of energy.

As we have a good record of the seismic history of the island, we know that it is possible that a great earthquake is being prepared. Not so much of the last one: the Amorgos in 1956 reached 7.7caused more than 50 dead and waves up to 30 meters high.

A great earthquake is not the only possibility. In This interferogram created from the Sentinel 1 datayou can see “a slight deformation in the northwest sector of the island after the seismic swarm that is happening on the island.”

That, As experts point outit could be indicative of a deformation “due to the rise and location of the magma.” However, that does not mean that we are going to see an eruption.

Volcanoes are extremely complex systems and “They can return to a state of ‘quiescence’ without erupting“We have seen it many times.

And that is the big problem. When we talk about geology, our prelective capacity is very limited. After the eruption of La Palma, there were many information that indicated that seismic swarms ‘They warned’ for years What was going to happen. Unfortunately, the reality is that this can only be concluded to Toro Last.

What can we do? As Méndez sayswe can only prepare for the different options that are forth from the table. One of the most exasperating things in geologies is that we still know too little and it is precisely in ignorance and uncertainty where monsters grow.

Image | Tânia Mousinho | INSN

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