What AI has a profitability problem It is something well known. All you have to do is look at the OpenAI accounts, which in the last consolidated quarter lost a whopping $11.5 billion. The subscriptions were presented as a way to monetize chatbotsbut ChatGPT barely has 5% of the total users on one of your payment plans. The numbers do not come out and, although companies deny it, the shadow of advertising hangs over AI.
what’s happening. Rumors that some very popular chatbots are integrating ads are intensifying in recent days. First they began to circulate alleged screenshots of an ad on ChatGPT and later a media specialized in advertising claimed that Gemini will have announcements in 2026.
Companies deny it. Google has been quick to deny the information, ensuring that Gemini has no ads and “there are currently no plans in place to change it.” What stands out above all is that “currently”, which continues to leave the door open to include advertising in the future.
For its part, OpenAI has come out to deny it ensuring that what appeared in that screenshot “was either not real or it was not an advertisement.” What was seen was a suggestion to connect the account of Target, the popular American hypermarket chain.
When the river sounds… Despite the forcefulness in denying it, a few days ago we learned that OpenAI is preparing the ground to include advertising in ChatGPT. ChatGPT beta version for Android includes explicit references to an ad feature and tags like “content bazaar” and “ad carousel.” Additionally, the company is hiring experts in advertising platformsso the appearance of ads is not a question of “if”, but of “when.”
In the case of Google, we haven’t seen any screenshots or traces in the code, so there isn’t that sense of imminence. However, there are rumors that there will be announcements in AI summaries and taking into account that advertising is the company’s main business, it does not sound crazy that they end up integrating ads into their chatbot.
Investment vs return. The imbalance between what technology companies are spending on AI with what they are earning is totally unbalanced. Big tech companies like Google are increasing their revenue, but It is not thanks to AI, but to its cloud services. In the case of OpenAI, without an infrastructure to minimize the impact, the disconnection between expenses and income is brutal.
Subscriptions are not enough. AI has managed to penetrate the general public and, according to the consulting firm Menlo Venturesalready has 1.8 billion users around the world. The problem is that only 3% pay any type of subscription. OpenAI currently has 5% paying users and expects that by 2030 the figure will increase to 8.5%. It is still not enough to achieve the desired profitability.
According to a study by JP Morgan, For the AI industry to achieve a 10% return on everything they have spent, it would take $650 billion a year, which is the same as saying that 1.4 billion people pay more than $400 each year to use AI. They may succeed, but for now ads seem like a faster way to generate income.
Image | Generated with Gemini
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