“This is brutal. The main models would be hinting at a possible extraordinary Heat Wave next week with maximums of +45ºC and even other values that I dare not mention,” the words of MeteoBadajoz speak on their own. In recent days, the bad news continues to accumulate.
It is true that, “for now, it is better to wait, but the insistence is such that it is beginning to be very possible,” continued. And he is right. Let’s see why.
What has happened? Since the AEMET weekly prediction points to temperatures above usual for next week, the dispersion of the models has been reducing. That is to say, what was a possibility begins to become a more than plausible scenario.
The important thing right now is to distinguish what we know and what we don’t.
What do we know? Today, in the words of Roberto Grandathere are already things that we do know: that “38-40 °C will be reached again in many areas” and the heat wave thresholds will be “comfortably” exceeded. What we cannot know is the temperature it will reach, where it will affect precisely and how many days it will last.
These doubts are still so strong, in fact, that the two major models do not agree. While the American GFS sees a general and very intense wave, the European GFS concentrates the extreme heat in the eastern half of the peninsula. Be that as it may, it seems that it catches us completely.
What we can expect. If the forecasts are confirmed, this extreme heat event would fall on a country (and a continent) that is already experiencing an extraordinary summer: it would be the third heat wave in a month, with the Mediterranean at 26.63 °C (2.6 degrees above normal) and after the second warmest June since 1961.
In fact, mortality (as estimated by MoMo of the Carlos III Health Institute), would have amounted to 1,682 attributable deaths since May 1; around 500 of them alone during the five days of the second wave.
But weren’t we going to the cold? Just a week ago, the networks were filled with maps that promised “the end of the heat” and we explained why they had to be read with caution. Now we have confirmation of our reading: a 15-day scenario cannot be confused with a prediction.
And now what? Now we have to wait for confirmation. In the coming days, the uncertainties will disappear and we will have confirmation (or ruling out). In previous waves, special notices came about four days in advance.
Whatever happens, one thing is clear: summer is looking really bad.
Image | Meteociel
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