Projections for 2025 anticipate a historic change in the global automobile industry. And as they point out data According to Nikkei China, Chinese manufacturers expect to reach approximately 27 million vehicles sold globally, surpassing the almost 25 million expected from Japanese brands. It is the first time in more than two decades that Japan has lost absolute leadership in total automobile sales.
Why is it important. For more than 20 years, Japanese manufacturers have dominated global vehicle sales figures. Toyota, Honda, Nissan and company have become a global reference in sales volume and efficiency over all these years. That China is going to overtake them reflects the mammoth change that is happening in the automobile industry, with the Asian giant conquering every possible corner at a speed that is difficult for the rest of the competitors to digest.
In detail. According to data from Nikkei China based on information from manufacturers and figures from S&P Global Mobility until November 2025, China’s growth in this sector will be 17% year-on-year. The figures include both passenger and commercial vehicles, and include both domestic sales and exports. The Chinese domestic market represents around 70% of these total sales, where new energy vehicles (pure electric and plug-in hybrids) already account for almost 60% of passenger cars sold.
Brands such as BYD and Geely have entered the global top 10 manufacturers by sales this year, while Chery has consolidated as one of the largest exporters in the country.
Exports support growth. The domestic market in China is a jungle. Overcapacity and increasingly fierce price competition They are making a dent in the country, which is why Chinese manufacturers have intensified their international expansion. In Southeast Asia, traditionally dominated by Japanese brands, Chinese sales will grow by 49% to reach around 500,000 units, according to data from the report.
In Europe, despite the tariffs imposed Regarding electric vehicles, it is expected that there will be sales of about 2.3 million vehicles, benefiting from the fact that many plug-in hybrids are exempt from additional taxes. Emerging markets also joinand the figures indicate that Africa will register 230,000 vehicles sold (32% more) and Latin America will reach 540,000 units (33% more).
A turning point. Japan reached its peak sales in 2018 with almost 30 million units. In just three years, the eight million vehicle lead it had over China in 2022 has completely evaporated. Japanese brands have lost market share in key Asian markets and are struggling to adapt to the electric transition, where they have arrived late.
Toyota maintains its strength in segments such as pickups and is committed to carbon-neutral combustion engines (via renewable fuels) and hybrid technology, but in China, the largest market in the world and capital of the electric car, that approach is costing them dearly. Not even Honda, Nissan and Mitsubishi, which now they collaborate on software and electrical infrastructure, can withstand the storm coming from China, a country that has specialized above all in batteries, software and production speed.
And now what. Japan has a great challenge ahead if it wants to recover ground in electrification and stop the erosion in markets where until recently they dominated strongly. China does not have a bed of roses either, since its challenge will be to maintain the pace in a context of growing protectionism, with the United States and Canada Tariffs of more than 100% already apply to Chinese electric companies, and those of the European Union of up to 45.3%. Things are going to be interesting.
Cover image | BYD and Xiaomi
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