Exactly 10 years ago, the image of an airplane downloading 400 million of dollars in cash in Iran became one of the most controversial symbols of Barack Obama’s foreign policy. In fact, Trump spent years using that episode as proof that Washington had “paid” for peace. Ten years later, history repeats itself… but with many more zeros.
The peace bill. The truth is that it was sensed from the first moment that the cease-fire between the United States and Iran was not exactly going to come free for Washington. What no one imagined was the magnitude of the price: up to 300,000 million of dollars in the form of a reconstruction and investment fund to relaunch the Iranian economy.
The figure is so enormous that it completely transforms the narrative of the war. What began as a campaign of maximum pressure and bombings on nuclear facilities has ended up mutating into something much more uncomfortable for the White House: an agreement where the supposedly punished person can leave with a historic financial injection if it complies.
Kharg Island
From punishing to financing. The paradox could not be more brutal for Donald Trump. For years he built a good part of his speech attacking the Barack Obama nuclear pactdenouncing that he had filled Tehran with “pallets of money.” Now his administration is promoting something that potentially multiplies that concession on another scale.
The argument is that the money will not come directly from the US Government, but from Western and Asian companies that would enter Iran if sanctions are lifted. But the geopolitical effect is the same: Iran’s economic survival becomes guaranteed by a deal that Washington desperately needed to close.
Hormuz, the key. It we were counting yesterday. The real trigger for the turn was not nuclear, but economic. When Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, it left more than a fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade up in the air. The market held out for a few days, but the pressure began to be unbearable. More than 500 ships were trapped, maritime traffic plummeted and the world’s largest shipping companies began to warn that reopening the route would not be immediate.
Everything changed there. The war ceased to be a regional issue and became a direct threat to the global economy and, above all, to the pockets of the American consumer.
Washington chose oil. That’s where the interests of Washington and Israel diverged. While Benjamin Netanyahu wanted keep pressing To further weaken the Iranian regime and even force a change in regional balance, Trump saw the domestic political cost of prolonging the energy crisis.
With elections approaching and the price of oil as a threat, the priority stopped being to subdue Iran and became reopening Hormuz as soon as possible. In practice, this meant accepting a much more limited agreementfocused on navigation, ceasefire and future nuclear negotiations.
Israel doesn’t see it. I was counting this morning the wall street journal that in Jerusalem the reading is almost opposite. The fear is not just that Iran will receive billions, but that it will do so without immediately handing over all of its enriched uranium or completely giving up rebuilding its nuclear program.
For many Israeli strategists, this means that Tehran gains oxygentime and resources to rearm. Furthermore, they see profound damage to American credibility: after months of military and economic pressure, the end result looks more like a purchased pause than a strategic victory.
A peace that strengthens some. The agreement, therefore, leaves an uncomfortable and quite surreal image: the United States bombed, pressured and isolated Iran to end up offering the conditions for its reconstruction. The Iranian regime comes out beaten, yes, but alive, with the Strait as a negotiating weapon and with the possibility of receiving an avalanche of foreign investment.
Of course, Trump could possibly sell it as stability and containment nuclear. But seen from the outside, the feeling is very different: peace has not only cost Washington dearly, but it may end up financing the very actor it tried to corner and overthrow.
Image | US Navy, Google Earth
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