Intel stock has spent most of the year so far trading at between 42 and 48 dollars. At the time of writing these lines it is worth 65. A vertical rise of more than 50% in just nine sessions that allows it to once again be above 300,000 million dollars.
Nothing like this had ever happened before in the company’s stock market history.
Why is it important. The market has been punishing Intel for years. It went from $65 per share to less than $20 in four years. Now it is resurrected after losing technological leadership to TSMC, after seeing how AMD took away share in servers and after several years selling assets to survive.
What has happened in this month of April is a change of narrative. And in markets, narrative is almost everything.
The three catalysts. The story has been built on three pieces of news that arrived in a few days:
- On April 1, Intel announced the repurchase of the 49% that Apollo Global Management had in its factory in Leixlip (Ireland) for 14.2 billion dollars. Apollo had paid 11.2 billion for that stake in 2024. That Intel now recovers it with a 27% premium It says a lot: Intel has stopped selling assets to survive and has started buying and expanding. The market interpreted it as a sign of strength and the stock rose almost 9% that day.
- On April 7, Intel confirmed its participation in Terafabthe chip manufacturing macro project promoted by Elon Musk together with Tesla, SpaceX and xAI. The goal of the complex, located in Austin, is to produce one terawatt per year of computing capacity to drive advances in AI and robotics.
- On April 9 it was announced a multi-year agreement with Google to deploy future generations of Xeon processors and IPUs in their AI data centers.
The following days saw the accumulated increases: Intel closed on April 8 at $58.95, with an increase in a single session (11.4%) and a volume of shares (179.7 million, 64% above its average for the previous three months) skyrocketed.
Between the lines. The buyback of the Irish factory is a declaration of intentions on industrial sovereignty. The facility produces chips with the processes Intel 4 and Intel 3both essential for advanced manufacturing in Europe.
Regaining full control of that factory, just when geopolitics has turned dependence on TSMC into a strategic problem for the West, gives Intel an argument that it did not have two years ago. Surprises life gives you.
Yes, but. It’s often a great idea to respond with a cold read to market enthusiasm. The analyst consensus remains cautious, with a median price target of between $47 and $48well below where it is trading now.
Furthermore, the debt has increased with the purchase of Ireland, Terafab is still a project in a very early stage and the first quarter results, scheduled for the 23rd, will test whether the stock market euphoria has a solid basis or if it has been too far ahead of operational reality.
The big question. Can Intel support this narrative with real numbers? The CEO, Lip-Bu Tanhas been at the helm for just over a year and has already managed to stabilize the ship: the 18A process It went into volume production in January, there are more than 200 PC designs based on it, and he himself admitted in the fourth quarter earnings presentation that Intel had underestimated demand.
But Intel has not yet won the battle of foundry: that is to come, and TSMC will not wait quietly for someone to overtake it.
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Featured image | Xataka with Mockuuups Studio
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