This week a New report Updated from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. The data, by drudos, left the imagination a few doubts: just over three years after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has reached low figures that place it between The bloodiest of modern history.
We have attended historical statistics to find out how much.
The human cost of a stagnant war. As we said, the CSIS study revealed that the total number of dead or injured soldiers amounts to almost 1.4 millionof which around one million are Russians and 400,000 Ukrainians.
This figure is even more shocking if it is considered that Ukraine does not publish its official data and that Russia, according to Experts warnsystematically underestimate your losses. The study is based on estimates from American and British sources, in addition to satellite images and field analysis.
The slowest war. The work tells more things. For example, despite the huge number of casualties, Russian territorial advances since January 2024 have been practically insignificant: less than 1% of the conquered Ukrainian territory, with an average advance rhythm of just 50 meters per day, even more than even the more expensive offensives of World War I.
Today, Russia occupies approximately the 20% of the Ukrainian territorybut without achieving decisive advances. This slowness, together with the Mass destruction Of war material, he has turned the Russian campaign one of the clearest examples of wear war of the 21st century.
Irreplaceable losses. However, if something betrays the brutality of the contest in Ukraine, that is the data of the CSIS that estimates that at least 250,000 Russian soldiers They have died in combat, which represents the highest military mortality rate of any Soviet or Russian war since World War II. For its part, Ukraine would have lost between 60,000 and 100,000 soldiers.
However, the proportion of forces in the front It is overwhelming: More than 400,000 Russian soldiers in front of about 250,000 Ukrainians, with Russia benefiting from a much larger population and aggressive replacement mechanisms. As We have counted: Moscow has avoided declaring a new general mobilization, but has resorted to Recruitment of prisonersdebtors and people with criminal causes, to whom it offers lucrative contracts or the cancellation of charges in exchange for the military service.
CSIS data shows a shocking Moscow casualties against other conflicts where Russia was
The historical scope. With the figure offered by the CSIS We have attended the historical statistics of similar war conflicts (excluding civil or genocide wars), all after World War II, to measure the scope and impact of the losses that are taking place in Ukraine on the Russian side. The base is that estimate of 250,000 losses since the beginning of the conflict in 2022.
A point and apart. The first data we found is that the estimation of the 250,000 losses makes the Ukrainian conflict The most lethal For Russian forces since World War II, surpassing the losses in Afghanistan (1979–1989), where the USSR lost Around 15,000 soldiersbut in ten years. Comparatively, in the Korean War (1950–1953), China (the main ally of North Korea) lost Between 180,000 and 400,000 fighters in three years of conflict, while the United States registered some 33,700 casualties in combat.
Not even Vietnam. In the Vietnam War (1955–1975), United States He suffered 58,220 deathsbut, again, it happened in a period of twenty years. For his part, Northern Vietnam lost Between 400,000 and 1.1 million Of soldiers, although those figures, again, accumulate over two decades.
Even in the devastating Guerra Iran -ira (1980–1988), with close to One million combined casualtiesonly Iran exceeded the current Russian figures in a longer period, with estimates of 200,000 to 262,000 dead. Therefore, the intensity of Russian losses, concentrated in a short period, is exceptional in the history of contemporary interstate conflicts.
Deep consequences. It is the last of the legs to analyze. Russia, despite having a population greater than Ukraine and, a priori, a deeper human replacement capacity, faces a accelerated erosion of their professional military capacity. Unlike previous conflicts where deaths were distributed in longer campaigns, the current wear of wear (right now around 7,000 soldiers dead per month) threat with structural degrade to its armed forces.
If these levels are maintained, Russia could exceed the psychological and logistic threshold that prevents you from sustaining the offensive. In front of wars such as the Gulf (1990–1991), where Iraq lost between 20,000 and 35,000 soldiers In just over a month, or the invasion of Iraq in 2003, where the United States suffered less than 5,000 casualties In eight years, the contrast is, if possible, even more extreme.
The war in Ukraine, in terms of direct military loss and temporary concentration, has become an atypical case for its lethality and its potential for internal destabilization for the aggressor country.
Image | Ministry of Defense of UkraineCsis, Worldindata
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