There are a lot of time apps. Know which one that is most accurate is almost impossible

You get up one morning. You look at the application of time on your phone. “100% rain,” or so says. You go to the window and there is a scorching sun illuminating the street. Worse is to consult the application of time, that just 10 or 20% probability of rain and, as soon as you leave, you fall a downpour. The latter is what It has been happening in Spain during the month of Marchone of The rainiest in a long time.

Although we blame apps not to predict perfectly, the truth is that interpreting them is not as easy as it seems.

How time apps work. Time applications work by combining data from different meteorological models to show us what are the rain forecasts for that day. Each of them is based on a different model, depending on the company behind.

These models can be global or regional, having the latter more precision in specific areas. In Spain, Aemet operates with different models such as Arome, MM5 or Reion, although time apps can use models outside our country.

Apple and Android. Apple’s time app uses information collected by The Weather Channelsince it has Your own API to provide meteorological data to other apps. If we use an android, such as an Xiaomi, your app works with information from Accuweather. This is precisely what makes each app show us a different fact: each of them is based on the models that it considers, and make predictions on their own.

For example, use your own prediction system called Accuweather Minutecast, which combines numerical models with artificial intelligence and real -time radar data to offer hyperlocal forecasts. It does not generate its own weather models from scratch, process information from global models.

100% rain. One of the main problems in the time apps has to do with how they show the information to the user. If we see 70% in the app, probably, let’s understand that the probability of raining in our city is 70%, something that is not completely. In fact, the thing is even more complicated if we go to the forecast for hours and there we see that the percentages are lower than those of the total day.

Quite difficult. We start from the basis that the weather prediction It is a complex science due to the dynamic and chaotic nature of the Earth’s atmosphere. Factors such as sudden changes in temperature, pressure, humidity, wind patterns and ocean currents interact intricately, creating a network of interconnected processes difficult to foresee exactly.

What is “100%”. There is a common common interpretation with respect to the percentage of probability of rain showing weather applications. It is easy to think that a “100% rain” indicates that it will rain throughout the day throughout the area. The truth is that this 100% means that, in similar weather conditions, it has rained 10 out of 10 times. But it is possible that this new occasion does not do it.

The percentage does not determine the rain that will fall, but the statistical mark of how frequent it has been raining in similar conditions.

The best way to measure it. The time apps have these limitations, and so they will continue to be until the meteorological measurement system changes. Something that will not happen in the short term. That is why in recent years there is a very booming app: rain radar.

Unlike traditional time apps, Rain Alarm is an app that is based on real -time radar data. These radar models do not work in the long term: they use data to make predictions in almost immediate ranges. This is why, with just opening the radar app, we can observe much more precisely the state of the atmosphere.

Today, this is the most accurate way of knowing immediately how the weather will behave. And, still, it will still not be accurate.

Image | ECMWF

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