births have fallen 50% since the Baby Boom time

Spain does not go through its best demographic moment. The data published yesterday by the INE show that the country touches the 49.1 million of inhabitants, Your biggest brand of the historical series, with almost 1.7 million residents more than at the beginning of this decade. And yet, despite that record figure, that he had never lived as many people in Spain as now, the truth is that demography faces a huge challenge: birth of birth, which makes growth It basically supports In immigration.

And there is a fact that reveals it clearly: the number of births has fallen more than 50% From the Baby Boom.

Spain, in record. Spain faces a peculiar population scenario. He had never resided so many people in the country nor had he been so close to reaching the barrier of the 50 million inhabitants, and yet, despite that good news advanced yesterday For the INE, Spain also faces a deep and worrying demographic crisis.

It may sound contradictory, but deep down both trends have little mysterious: the census grows, but supported fundamentally in The arrival of immigrantswhich has been the great demographic crutch of the country throughout the last year. With regard to birth, things are very different. Waiting to know the final balance of 2024, the 2023 data They reflect that this indicator is far, far away, from going through its best moment.

A figure: 49.07 million. That is the official number of resident population of Spain the first day of 2025. The data is good for several reasons. As Remember the INEit is the “maximum value of the historical series” and shows that in the last year the state register won about 458,300 people. Reading is clear, as is its explanation: if Spain grows it is basically because of the balance of immigrants.

“Population growth was due to the increase of people born abroad, since those born in Spain decreased,” Point out The statistical observatory before moving on to the data: on January 1, the population born in Spain had experienced a quarterly fall of 0.05%, while the one born abroad grew 1.47%.

And how was birth? Waiting for the definitive and updated data, for the moment the brushstrokes that the INE leaves are not especially good. Birth in Spain falls or in the best case stagnates with a slight growth. And that as long as we talk about short -term comparisons. If we expand the focus and compare the current number of births with which Spain registered decades ago, in the Baby Boom, The difference is abysmal.

The provisional estimates of the INE show that between January and November 2024 some were recorded in the whole of Spain 296,100 birthsmore or less like the previous year (+0.8%). If we go to the closed data of 2023 we verify that during that year they were born in Spain 320,656 babies2.6% less than in 2022 and far from the 425,700 that the INE counted only a decade before.

A percentage: 50%. The above are annual or monthly comparative. The most interesting readings are obtained by opening the focus, as the Professor of Human Geography Rafael Puyol has done in An article Posted in The conversation. It basically exposes two figures: if during the best years of the Baby Boom (In demographic terms), there for 50, 60 and the first half of the 70s, they were born in Spain between 650,000 and 660,000 babies, now that figure has been cut in half. Since 2017 It does not reach 400,000.

With two concrete figures the jump is better appreciated. In 1960 they were registered in Spain 663,375 births. In 2023 were 320,656. In summary: a collapse of more than 50% in a matter of a few decades, a devastating percentage that for Puyol is basically explained by a combination of economic and social factors. Which is it?Among others the changes in the family model and the hierarchy of values, education and The incorporation From women to the labor market.

A trend, three indicators. Beyond raw birth data, The expert animates to look at three key demographic indicators. The first is fertility, the “average number of children per woman of proper age.” In Spain that mean remains below The 2.1 barrier which are considered necessary for generational renewal since the 80s. Moreover, in 2023 it was 1.12.

The second data is the collapse of the number of women with ages in the strip that are usually associated with motherhood, between 25 and 39 years. After making accounts Puyol warns that so far from the century the number of women with that profile in Spain has fallen into more than 700,000. “Potential mothers are increasingly scarce,” warns.

The third factor is that we have children every time. In fact the number of lighting between Mothers of 40 or more years It has shot 20% in a decade.

Why is it important? Because birth evolution is not just a statistical curiosity or a problem for demographers. At a higher volume of births, the population pyramid is widen more by the base and less is the aging of a country, which has implications at a social, labor and of course for Public coffers.

The clearest example is the sustainability of pension system. It is not an exclusive problem from Spain. Something similar occurs in other nations, both from the rest of Europe and from countries and Japan, South Korea either Even Chinathat also faces the challenge of aging.

Images | Mikel Seijas Alonso (Flickr) 1 and 2

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