Finally, China carried out what the global industry feared: blocking the export of rare earths more valuable. In this way, without more, it sounds tremendous, although surely many will wonder how far the scope of the veto really comes, or which supply chain will be affected in the short term with Beijing’s decision. There are many sectors against the strings, but there is an especially delicate one for Washington: Defense. If everything remains the same, you have a few months left for your F-35 or ballistic missiles to have a serious problem.
The Achilles heel. I told it The New York Times A few hours ago. China’s decision to impose restrictions on the export of critical minerals and, especially, of certain rare earth magnets, represents a direct warning to the national security of the United States, whose military capacities They depend largely of these resources.
Which is it? We talk about Combat fighters of the Air Force, like F-35of guided ballistic missiles of the army or electric drones of the Marines, where these magnets (made with elements such as neodymium, disposium or ititrium) are essential for the operation of motors, guidance mechanisms or emergency systems. If, for example, a ballistic missile does not include the component of these magnets, it would be impossible for their goal to reach.
The background problem. That 90 % of these components are produces in Chinaand six of the key metals that compose them are only refined there, which gives Beijing a powerful pressure tool. This maneuver, considered a “warning shot” by An official From the Air Force, it could easily climb towards fees, tariffs or even a total prohibition, generating an immediate impact on the costs and availability of American military technologies.
A vulnerable chain. It We have counted other times. Rare earth (a set of 17 elements) is not that they are scarce in the strict sense, but its processing is expensive (and polluting), which is why China managed to dominate both its extraction and the associated refining and manufacturing. This supremacy has allowed him control much of the final cost of the modern American weapons, including those poachers, submarines, war ships, tanks, missiles and laser systems.
To get an idea, only one F-35 contains around 400 kg of rare earth materialswhile some submarines They exceed 4,000 kg. Although the American defense industry and the pentagon have accumulated strategic reserves of these elements, analysts warn that these collections would barely reach to cover a few months of production and maintenance, not even years. From there, as we recently counted, that Washington has noticed the Pacific fund.
Future warnings. Actually, the United States already knew about this unit and what could happen for a few years. It happened with an emblematic case, the call “F-35 “magnet debacle”when in 2022 the Department of Defense temporarily suspended the delivery of these aircraft after discovering that a component contained a Alloy manufactured in Chinacontravening defense acquisition standards.
Although at that time it was considered that the material did not represent a direct threat, the incident highlighted the depth of the US dependence. Now, with the obligation that Chinese exporters Request special permits Before sending rare earth to the United States, experts anticipate a price increase that will affect the entire industrial defense base. Yes, the MINTAIN PASS MINA In California it has resumed operations, but its production is far from competing with Chinese capacity.
Historical precedents. Looking back, history offers examples of how the United States must have adapted to interruptions of the supply of strategic materials in times of war. For example, now It happened with the bauxite During World War II, when Germany sank allied charges that transported it from Surinam. So Washington turned to Domestic reserves in Arkansas to guarantee the production of airplanes.
Today, The Times told that there are already voices from the sector, such as American Enterprise Institutewhich insist that current reserves are not enough to sustain the military-industrial complex in the face of a long interruption of the Chinese supply. Despite the initiatives of Trump and Biden governments to Reactivate national production Of critical minerals, the industry remains highly vulnerable to Beijing’s decisions.
A critical dilemma. No doubt, there is a much broader background with what happened in the commercial war. Chinese control over rare earth supply not only implies logistic or economic vulnerability: it represents A geostrategic challenge First order for the technological supremacy of which the United States has always presumed in the military. The recent Chinese measure does not close trade routes completely, but it makes it clear that Beijin possesses A pressure lever Formidable about the American defense industry.
Faced with this, analysts agree that Washington must accelerate efforts to diversify their sources of supply, recover internal industrial capabilities and ensure the resilience of a supply chain that supports a good part of its global power. Otherwise, the next crisis may not limit yourself to that “warning shot”, but to become a direct blow to the technological backbone of the National Defense.
Image | Jasper Nance
In Xataka | The United States imagined that China would veto its export of rare earths. Has a plan B: The Pacific Fund
In Xataka | China has done what the global industry feared: block the export of the most valuable rare earths
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