Drones cannot be stored for more than eight weeks

For years, many European countries filled huge underground warehouses with ammunition capable of remaining operational for decades. In fact, some projectiles stored in Finland They have been waiting for more than 30 years without losing effectiveness. However, the weapons that are redefining today’s conflicts work with software, radios and chips that change at a pace much more similar to that of consumer electronics than that of traditional artillery. This difference is forcing armies to reconsider an unexpected question: how to prepare for a future war when military technology ages almost as quickly as a simple mobile phone.

Rearmament enters the era of the drone. Because European defense was based on a relatively simple logic inherited from the Cold War: fill warehouses with ammunition, missiles, mines or artillery shells capable of remaining operational for decades. In countries like Finland, as we said, there are camouflaged deposits with huge reserves of ammunition that have been stored for years and are still fully usable.

However, the Ukrainian war has shown that the battlefield of the 21st century increasingly revolves around cheap drones, software and electronic warfare, which has led NATO and European governments to rethink your investments. At the next summit of the alliance, precisely how to shift part of military spending from traditional systems (such as tanks or heavy artillery) will be discussed. towards emerging technologies based on drones, AIs, satellites and digital networks, in an attempt to adapt to a form of warfare where the speed of innovation is as important as firepower.

The big problem: drones expire. This strategic change has revealed an unexpected dilemma. Unlike an artillery projectile or missile that can be stored for decades, drones depend on software, communications and electronic components that evolve at a rapid pace. The experience in Ukraine has shown that a dominant model on the front can become unusable a few weeks later due to new jamming systemsfrequency changes or improvements in autonomous navigation.

That is why several European officials warn that storing large quantities of drones may be useless: because by the time they reach the battlefield, many will already be obsolete. Even governments calculate that certain models may become outdated in just eight weeksa reality that completely breaks with the classic logic of accumulating arsenals for years for a future conflict.

Electronic warfare and useful life of a weapon. The main reason for this accelerated expiration is not so much in the hardware of the drone as in the electronic environment in which it operates. On the Ukrainian front, the constant struggle to dominate the radio spectrum It forces you to continually change frequencies, antennas, radios and control systems to avoid enemy blockade.

A drone that works correctly today can stop doing so in a matter of days if the adversary develop new techniques of interference. Therefore, what really ages is not the fuselage of the device but your digital ecosystem: software, data links and navigation algorithms. In this context, the life cycle of a drone is more similar to that of a phone or a computer than that of a tank or a missile, which makes constant updating an essential requirement if the drone is not to become a “brick.”

The industrial paradox. This phenomenon places governments before an industrial paradox difficult to solve. To prepare for a crisis, Europe needs an industry capable of producing large-scale drones quickly, but producing them too soon can be counterproductive because they would be left outdated before use.

Some manufacturers hold that the only way to solve this dilemma is to buy drones now to train the armed forces, develop doctrines and build an industrial base capable of increasing production in the event of war. However, even the most optimistic companies recognize that multiplying production has limits: They can escalate tenfold in an emergency, but hardly a hundredfold overnight.

The military revolution. Despite these challenges, the strategic logic of drones is difficult to ignore. Analysts and companies in the sector highlight that, for the price of two Leopard tanksa country could deploy hundreds of teams of attack drones capable of stopping entire armored units. This economic change is transforming the way we think about war: cheap and numerous systems can neutralize heavy platforms that for decades symbolized military power.

For this reason, Bloomberg reported that NATO is studying how to combine traditional hardware with new digital technologies that allow us to close the gap with the United States and adapt to the new operating environment.

The future of rearmament. In summary and in view of this new reality, many European governments believe that the solution is not so much to fill warehouses with drones, but create industrial ecosystems able to adapt and quickly produce updated versions when necessary. This implies, a priori, connecting armed forces, software developers, engineers and manufacturers in a continuous cycle of innovation that allows systems to be modified several times a year.

Thus, instead of static arsenals, the objective becomes a flexible industry capable of evolving at the pace of electronic warfare. In other words, the great challenge of European rearmament It is no longer just about spending more and more money to stockpile weapons like there is no tomorrow, but about accepting that, in 21st century warfare, even the most decisive weapons can become old before they leave the warehouse.

Image | Aerospace, State Border Guard Service of Ukraine

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