this single fact is enough to understand this spring

Roller coaster, they call it; but, in reality, it is simply spring. Although, of course, what a spring: the first two weeks of April have chained at least three thermal oscillations of great amplitude: drops of up to 20 degrees in a matter of hours, very rapid ascents and starting again.

And the heat is back, but what everyone is wondering is something else: are we already on the slow road towards summer or will there be more relapses?

We have an answer. The answer is obviously not simple and, in fact, is very speculative; but the elements are there. To begin with, the AEMET’s seasonal forecast places April, May and June in the upper tertile of temperatures. We know that the months can give us surprises (as has happened with this January 2026), but we also know that forecasting is generally strong.

Furthermore, as we have explained, the transition to El Niño is underway. It is true that the impact of the phenomenon in Spain is ambiguous and that, if anything, the strongest trend has to do with rainfall. But it is clear that, given what we have seen in the data, it is another argument in favor of heat.

Of course, the behavior of the polar jet can still give us some cold episodes (April is usually the month with the greatest undulation of the jet). However, the space of possibilities is increasingly narrow and limited.

Spain is an increasingly warmer place. AEMET data they leave no room for doubt: The last cold record in mainland Spain was the night of April 2 to 3, 2022. Since then, in the last four years, we have not had any more. Instead, we have had 100 records of warm days.

This is not normal: in a world without climate change, five cold and five warm records are expected each year. That is, we would expect 2o from January 2022 and we have only seen two. Both in April of that year.

This is the context in which 2026 takes place.

So this heat is now definitive? With all this, the short answer is probably yes. Above all, because even if the cold air intrusions return… they will be increasingly weaker and briefer. And that, in the middle of a spring that tends to be warmer than normal, paints a fairly predictable scenario.

The chips are on the table. All that’s left is for them to start falling.

Image | BenBaso | Xataka

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