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While the United States, in Trump’s figure, leafless the Margarita on a possible intervention American military against Iran, several scenarios open, all uncertain, and a technical, strategic and symbolic obstacle: the difficulty of destroying The ForDow Uranium Enrichment Center, a underground installation excavated deep in a mountain. In fact and, as we will see, Washington’s main concern at this time is a bomb … yours.
Weigh the risks. He Financial Times and the Washington Post have published two reports on that moment of Impasse that is lived in the administration. While Trump holds intense meetings in the White House crisis room to decide if the United States joins the Israeli offensive against Iran, US intelligence and defense services draw an exhaustive map of possible reprisals that Tehran could trigger.
Among the explicit warnings of the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Jamenei (who has threatened to cause “irreparable damage” if Washington intervenes), and the strategic memory of previous cycles Of climbing, the White House faces a decision that could mark the turning point In the conflict. Iranian response options cover A broad spectrum: Direct attacks against American troops or embassies in the Middle East, cybernetic sabotages, terrorist attacks, undercover actions through allied militias such as Hezbollah or hutis, and, perhaps the most serious from the economic point of view, the Ormuz Strait closurewhere a third of the world’s maritime oil travels.
The dilemma of deterrence. The United States currently maintains some 40,000 military troops deployed in the region, with eight permanent bases in countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Catar and Arab Emirates, in addition to operational presence in other eleven key enclaves, including Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Oman. The Udeid Air Base in Catar, headquarters of the American central command, houses 10,000 soldiersand other facilities such as the Bahrain Naval Base or the infrastructure in Kuwait house tens of thousands more.
Although all have aerial defenses, their geographical proximity with Iran makes them Vulnerable objectives Before a ballistic or cruise missile attack, drones or even irregular command incursions. Iran has a significant arsenal of unmanned projectiles and aerial vehicles, many of them of their own manufacture or adaptations of Russian and North Korean models, and although their response would not be immediate, the internal debate in Tehran about when and how to answer It could be intensified If Washington actively participates in the campaign.
The threat of the Strait. He Ormuz narrowneuralgic point of global hydrocarbons trade, represents a Strategic risk first order. Iran has demonstrated in the past (as in 2019when it managed to temporarily paralyze 50% of Saudi production through a combined missile and drone attack) that can seriously affect the world energy market. If you choose to undermine the strait, use fast boats, submarines or coastal batteries to block the passage, the impact on oil prices It would be immediate and global.
It happens that they will also It depends on the Strait For its own crude oil exports, which introduces a structural contradiction: damage ormuz would harm both their enemies and itself. Even so, like They point out analysts From the pentagon, deterrence based on mutual vulnerability does not guarantee containment if the survival of the regime is at stake. The precedent of hutis in the red seawhich have managed to interrupt maritime traffic despite weeks of US bombings, demonstrates the effectiveness of sustained asymmetric tactics even under constant military pressure.
The mystery of a bomb. And here we reach the main theme from the perspective of the possible attack of the United States. In the heart of deliberations about this possible military intervention against Iran is the difficulty of destroying the center of Uranium enrichment of Fordow, that underground installation excavated deep in a mountain.
He counted exclusive The Guardian that Trump has already been informed that the use of the GBU-57 pump could, in theory, Inspore fordow During a limited period of time, but according to sources close to the conversations, the president is not convinced of his effectiveness and has conditioned any authorization to attack the guarantee that the objective can be eliminated definitively.
B-52 launching a MOP during the tests, 2009
Reasonable doubt. Doubts feed not only for the tactical complexity of the operation, but also of the evaluation of the Department of Defense: several experts They have warned Not even a GBU-57 pump battery would be enough to completely destroy Fordow, and that only A tactical nuclear weapon I could achieve it with certainty.
In this regard, the British newspaper stressed that the option, however, has not been considered Formally and was ruled out in the meetings held between Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegesh and the head of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine.
GBU-57 limitations. It We count this week. It is a 13.6 tons pump capable of penetrate underground structures reinforced, the same one that has been the center of multiple debates in the Pentagon since the beginning of Trump’s mandate. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DRA), responsible for testing and analyzing this kind of weapons, has pointed out that Fordow, about 80 meters underground, is beyond the operational reach of this ammunition without a PREVIOUS PREPARATION OPERATION that includes the destruction of aerial defenses, elimination of GPS interference and a possible saturation attack with conventional weapons to weaken the land.
Even so, even under optimal conditions, the impact of a GBU-57 pump It could be limited to collapsing tunnels, sealing accesses and burying machinery under debris, but not to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear capacity. The bomb, in addition, has never been used Under real conditions against an installation such as Fordow, which adds technical uncertainty to the already high political risk of initiating an open conflict.
Absolute success or deterrence. The Guardian explained That for some high controls, the real problem is not the bomb itself, but the expectation of a “One and Done (unique and decisive attack) that does not conform to operational reality. The retired general Randy Manner, former Draw director, He warned that ForDow could be quickly rebuilt, and that any damage caused by the GBU-57 would delay the Iranian nuclear program at most Between six months and one year.
The idea that destroy Fordow I would solve the Iranian nuclear problem, According to your analysisplus a narrative resource than a strategic reality. A limitation that opens another dilemma: either a military operation with partial impact is accepted, or is contemplated (even as only as theoretical hypothesis) the use of tactical nuclear weapons, something that neither Trump nor the pentagon are willing to consider publicly, According to the medium.
Disjion due to uncertainty. Thus, instead of rushing, Trump seems to be using the implicit threat of an American attack as an instrument of diplomatic pressure, keeping open the possibility of Iran is induced to Negotiate for fear to a larger escalation. The strategy, however, is not exempt from risks: prolonging uncertainty without clear action can give time to Tehran to reinforce your defensesadapt their structures and, perhaps, although speculative, secretly accelerate its nuclear program.
The International Atomic Energy Agency claims to have detected that Iran has enriched Uranium in Fordow up to 83.7%dangerously close to 90% threshold necessary for nuclear weapons. This data reinforces the perception that Fordow is the critical core of the Iranian nuclear project and that its neutralization (either by diplomatic or military means) is indispensable to stop any proliferation attempt.
At that point, the United States faces an unresolved challenge: it has the most powerful weapon of its conventional arsenal, but It does not have certainty that you can meet your goal.
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