Buying cheap RAM seemed like a matter of waiting. Lenovo just dismantled that hope

Buying memory seemed, until not so long ago, a question of patience. If prices rose, many users and companies could wait a while before expanding a computer, renewing storage or closing a large server purchase. The idea was simple: endure the blow, watch the market and hope that the pressure would go down. But that hope begins to collide with a different reality, because memory no longer only powers our computers: it also supports a growing part of the infrastructure that drives AI.

The latest news comes to us from ISC 2026in Hamburg, one of those events where the debate on servers and infrastructure allows us to see where the market is moving rather than in domestic consumption. According to ComputerBaseLenovo showed there a slide titled “Five-step survival guide for RAMageddon” and accompanied the idea with a phrase that summarizes the change in tone well: “It will never be like last yearThe aforementioned media clarifies that this “never” should not be read completely literally, but the warning is still relevant: trusting in a quick return to the levels of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 may be too optimistic.

ComputerBase may not be a well-known outlet outside of Germany, but its coverage of ISC 2026 has been replicated by specialized publications like Tom’s Hardware and TweakTown. In the latter’s information, Martin Hiegl, a Lenovo executive linked to Enterprise AI & HPC, is identified as the author of the statements. Before the event, Hiegl announced on LinkedIn that he would participate again in the “Vendor Showdown” session with the theme “RAMageddon”.

The problem is not just that the RAM is expensive

In its presentation, Lenovo is not just talking about a temporary tension, but about a change in the economics of DRAM and NAND. The company maintains that even when new relevant manufacturing capacity begins to be noticed, something that it places from 2028, a good part of that additional production could be absorbed by AI infrastructure. In other words: more memory being manufactured does not necessarily mean that we will return to the low prices of 2024 and early 2025.

The industry is also moving in that direction. Tom’s Hardware points to SK hynix’s plans to triple its memory production capacity by 2034 as a background signal: if manufacturers were expecting a quick return to minimal margins and oversupply, they would hardly accelerate investments of that magnitude. Lenovo’s reading is that the incentive has changed. With sustained demand for AI and increased pressure on DRAM, NAND and HBM, expanding factories may ease the market, but not automatically rebuild the cheap scenario that many buyers remember.

Now, the Chinese manufacturer is not alone in this diagnosis. As we pointed out days agoMicron recently told its investors that it expects limited supply until at least 2027, with a gradual improvement starting in 2028. SK hynix has also warned that shortages could last until around 2030 whether the AI ​​infrastructure continues to absorb wafer capacity. These are forecasts that should be read with caution, because they come from companies that benefit from high prices, but they also show that the sector is planning as if the pressure is not going to disappear anytime soon.

The consumer also remains within the chain. It is no secret that “RAMageddon”, as Lenovo called it, is reaching PCs, mobile phones, consoles and SSDs, precisely the products where we usually notice first if an increase in components reaches the final price. There are the Xbox Series X|S, PlayStation 5 and 5 Pro and more expensive Nintendo Switch 2. Also mobile phones that come at higher prices and computers like Macs being harder to reach.

Does that mean we should take Lenovo’s scenario for granted? Not necessarily. No one can predict with certainty how the market will evolve.. His analysis carries weight because it comes from one of the largest computer manufacturers in the world, but even in a sector like this, forecasts can fall short… or not be met.

The most reasonable reading is another: if Lenovo is right, memory is no longer that component that we could postpone almost by inertia until we find a better offer. In a market where AI competes for DRAM, NAND and HBM, waiting is still an option, but no longer a guarantee.

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